TSLA Trade on Apr 26, 2019 09:46 from ryanisaledge: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Trade Idea

TSLA has been down trending towards 2 key multi year support levels. On 4/25 TSLA came out with q1 earnings. They were worse than expected, Musk is in court in a contempt case with the SEC and a defamation lawsuit with a british cave diver. Either TSLA bulls remain steadfast and defend the multi year support or the sellers roll through town and we see blood in the streets.

On The Wire

After Hours Headlines:
Tesla Misses Analysts' Forecasts, Loses $2.90 Per Share In First Quarter
What To Make Of Tesla's Brutal Quarter
'We will delay $1k full self-driving option price increase until May 10 for those unable to order by May 1' -Tweet From Elon Musk
Tesla shares are trading lower after the company reported worse-than-expected Q1 results. Analysts at multiple firms published negative sentiment on the stock following earnings.
'UK Model 3 order page goes live next week, followed shortly thereafter by Japan, Australia, New Zealand & Hong Kong' -Tweet From Elon Musk
Tesla's Musk, SEC Seek More Time to Reach Deal over Musk's Twitter Us

Pre Market Headlines:
NY Federal Court Filing Shows Tesla's ELon Musk Has Reached Deal With SEC Related To Twitter Use
6 Months After Turning Bullish, Citron's Andrew Left Is Out Of Tesla
Tesla shares are trading lower on continued weakness after the company reported weak Q1 results. Several analysts issued bearish outlook on the company following earnings.
Benzinga Pro's Top 10 Most-Searched Tickers For Morning of Fri.,
UPDATE: Elon Musk, SEC Have Been Given Until Apr. 30, 2019 To Report Resolution To Federal Court
NY Federal Court Ruling Shows Judge Granted Request By Tesla's Elon Musk, US SEC For Second Extension To Resolve Contempt Motion
Citron Research Founder Andrew Left Says He has No Position in Tesla Currently; Says Disappointed in Way Co is Communicating with Shareholders

Analyst Colour:
All 4/25
Wedbush Downgrades Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $275
--Wedbush Calls Tesla's Q1 One Of The 'Top Debacles' In 20 Years Of Covering Tech
Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy on Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock, Raises Price Target to $394
JP Morgan Reiterates Underweight, $200 Target On Tesla As Firm Sees 'an increased chance of equity dilution', 'and (newly) on the potential for further inventory and residual value write-downs associated with any potential future price reductions'
JMP Securities Maintains Market Outperform on Tesla, Inc. - Common Stock, Lowers Price Target to $369
Barclays Maintains Underweight, $192 Target On Tesla As Firm Notes 'We're not buying the 2Q or full year delivery guide'

Options:
4/25
Tesla Option Alert: May 17 $230 Puts Sweep (35) near the Ask: 501 @ $5.585 vs 3149 OI; Ref=$250.21
Tesla Option Alert: Sep 20 $320 Calls at the Ask: 650 @ $10.401 vs 1277 OI; Ref=$250.63 Charles GrossApr 25, 2019

4/26
Tesla Option Alert: May 3 $240 Puts Sweep (3) near the Ask: 1000 @ $10.5 vs 2204 OI; Ref=$234.7

What Should The Stock Do?
Hold support and trade higher or break support and stampede lower

What Is The Stock Doing??
Traded lower in the PM day 1, stopped people out at the open, got rejected at pm highs and traded lower all day
day 2: pretty weak pre market, not bouncing, not trying to break day 1 highs.
Trading lower into the open

Float: 133.6 Inst Own: 61.9 Short Float: 30%.. ATR: 9.73

Setup Score: / 5

Daily Risk Allocation:

Trade Performance

Entry:
I got short on the bounce that held S1 as resistance after bouncing at s2
Then I retok the trade 40 seconds after stopping out at the same price
I added when it wasn't getting about 243 and it was bouncing off 242 (s2) like a bouncing ball off a cliff, I got in at 242.78 and from there it drew down a few cents and was in the money the rest of the day. This was a perfect add

Exit:
I stopped out above 245
I took profits in front of the retest of 242
I covered some more into the bounce to vwap after cracking S2
I took profits infront of the retest of the low of day
I took more profits infront of the retest of the low, only to have it trade 30 to 40 cents lower moments later
I saved 1/7 share all day and took it off 0.87 in front of the bottom at 232.01 ($12.41 per share from initial entry) (Best per share profit to date)

Risk Management:
I covered the first position on the break above 245.
Then I reentered at the same price 40 seconds after stopping out.
I took 1/5 off for quick profits at the retest
Then I got scared and took of 2/5 into the squeeze to vwap then I said 'this thing just cracked 2 year support, hold onto your fucking balls
Then when it was consolidating like a heard of buffalo ontop of a cliff I put on more risk (it wasn't enough) (it's never enough)
I want to say I did a nice job of taking off the rest of the risk but on my next 3 exits I took profits infront of the retest of the lows after another lower high and moments after covering price was 30-40 cents lower

Performance:
P = 0.72

Comments:
Everything came together for this trade, negative earnings, negative sentiment, negative color, negative price action. I have been watching TSLA trade for years but never taken a trade. This morning, I looked at how TSLA closed after earnings, I noticed it it was dangerously close to support. I had the idea, I saw the idea, I executed the idea and I scored fairly well on the idea.
I held 1/7 of the trade for $12.41 per share. My previous best wasn't even > 3.

I need to do this more frequently and with bigger size.