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Marius

 

ETH

Jun 16, 2019 01:03


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Laggard Cryptocurrencies Bullish Continuation Bullish Consolidation Breakout A+ Trade

BTC and the crypto space has been showing bullish signs and signals for continuation. I recently put a draft research analysis on longer-term VWAP analysis of BTC (can be seen on previous public trade for BTC but w/ no executions). I posted this in a chatroom and a forum and haven't received much feedback directly on it. Could be a an overlooked aspect or something not as notable. Nevertheless, I'm comparing what other experts are seeing with their analysis. I never felt like I needed to "pound the desk" as Mike Bellafiore would say but this is an idea that I had a couple days to digest. I don't think I've even mentioned or felt that way before so it's worth noting in the outcome I'm wrong but will be sure to draw a line and exit strategy like usual (just this will sting a little more). Note: I only started trading in 2017 during that crypto wave cycle.

BTC is testing the 9k level and other names have been sideways for the most part. I'm leaning on the bullish side here as there has been significant market digestion during the last couple of weeks. I'll be including anchored VWAP screenshots, along with other tools I've used in the past.

ETH has an interesting laggard stance to BTC and at notable levels. (more details below) I'll be entering a heavier position but still relatively small due to my current cryptocurrency funds allocation. Stock market is also proximate to ATH's with some interesting developments but more on that in equity trades.

It's also worth noting that FB is making a notable fundamental change by introducing its own coin backed by many tech names. This would be a significant fundamental change to FB itself and also notably the crypto space..

  • RVOL D, *less than 1 (not significant but trading this as a laggard) BTC had a marginally higher daily RVOL after reviewing ~1.8 for a weekend day (possible early signal) ETH still not significant
  • Market Cap 29.1B
  • ATR D, ~15

Crypto Total Market Cap W,

BTC D, anchored VWAP from ATH's and FIB retracement. Notable price action around 8k and AVWAP. No bearish follow through followed by notable bullish strength reversal. I will be keeping these VWAPS's for future trades.

ETH D, anchored VWAP from ATH's and ATL's. Notable overhead supply / resistance level. Expecting to move as a laggard compared to BTC. This is also at the 300 level. Almost looking like the market digesting + building energy before a move into and possible through this overhead critical level. Will include Fib levels below but this is price (absolute) and price + volume derived (vwap).

ETH D, notable recent retrace + extension fibs here to highlight any confluences. Noting here that price has recently broke through AVWAP ATL. Also seeing where these Fibs confluence with AVWAP's. Around 300 level looks very significant based on all tools. Price action, VWAP's, + Fibs. Noticing the market consolidating recent gains in this range and forming bullish consolidation with breakout in process. Just noticed the sustained buying price action on the recent days. (*this has been pointed out before in previous trade(s) 04/25-05/10 ETH D)

ETHBTC D, unfavorable relative strength here for ETH but keeping in mind this trade as a laggard to BTC. So relative weakness is expected in the shorter-term plus I outlined multiple reasons above for this. ETH is still has the 2nd largest market cap in the space.

ETHBTC 2D, zoomed out for more perspective and noticing a familiar level historically. Momentum is down but still putting more weight where the absolute price and trade setup is currently. If absolute price action shows critical bearishness then that would be more of signal for me to exit. If BTC consolidates and ETH holds up the ETHBTC relative chart can show strength. It goes to say that if BTC trades sideways and ETH shows increased bullishness the relative strength can show strength as well. Both have to be used but absolute price is what ultimately dictates my strategy. The relative chart can give me hints and kind of shows momentum like other similar indicators. Again the level where it's at in historical relation is notable here.

Risk Management : My conviction on the trade is very high but anything can happen and price action can reverse. Will still evaluate data day by day. I'm putting my crypto account in it's highest risk thus far. However it is relatively smaller than my other trading account and a loss with all allocations combined is well within acceptable range. Planning to allocate more funds into the crypto space if there are more notable bullish developments. Noting also the daily RSI and momentum is not OS and momentum has just started to ramp up more bullish since the recent pullback. Ideally I'd like to see price test the levels above and push through in an extended action. This is where I'd take profit. If there are shallow pullbacks I may add to the positions, raise stops, and or scale out. Depends on the day to day price action. If there is a sharp reversal or no follow through that would be an exit signal to mitigate losses and or protect positions.

ETH 2D, base formation with breakout and handle of consolidation before resuming ?

ETH 12h, Reviewing market price action psychology. Level of supply/resistance with multiple tests. First test straight of a bull move (failed). Consolidation then 2nd re-test with break but no follow through (fail + whipsaw). 3rd immediate re-test and reconfirmed resistance (fail) ? Now back at 4th test. Market is absorbing supply very well here. There has not been a critical sell-off from resistance. There are more and more buyers here. When will overhead supply at this level be fully absorbed ? Do we see another break and no follow through or break with follow through ? The latter would be more probable because of the last attempt ? Market possibly consolidating below the critical resistance level (as pointed out with price action, VWAP's, & Fib). Can also view this as price tightening action (maybe put on a bollinger band tool) ? Trying to see what more people are seeing collectively. The more a level is seen the more significant the action is on that level.

ETHBTC D, Observing a Fib retracement from high's and looking for sideways action and reversal around 61.8% Recent previous examples are shown here. Orange down sloping line shown on the daily from a weekly downtrend.

ETHBTC D, Notable continuation with BTC and ETH was moving along with it following. Other names were not as strong and some losing strength. Very notable 61.8 level test here. ETHUSD is now testing key levels of resistance.

ETHUSD D, Key level test. Volume is increasing here as well with BTC moving testing 10k level. Lot's of targets above 10k and overall market including equities, gold, oil, bonds, and the dollar are getting notable funds shifting. Sentiment is still low even though we are at ATH's in the US market. Other areas of the globe are starting to show strength as well. With dollar weakening this could also make sense as well. Not related to this trade but noting here as I will be scaling in cash reserves back in to equities in retirement accounts.
Cryptocurrencies and gold will be an interesting theme for the rest of the year as well.

BTCUSD D,

Scaled out 40% of my position on the pullback of BTC just below 10k. Keeping a stop wide enough for my timeframe and risk tolerance. Looking to see if BTC can continue but if not I have some profit from this attempt at key resistances. Will re-add once the shorter term momentum improves and aligns with my mid-term time frame. Noting strength of ETH here as it is holding up better in the space with BTC's shorter-term pullback.

ETHBTC 4h, price action within 61.8% level and looking to see if where the next HL on this timeframe will form. Noting to see where price moves from here as well. Higher will be a great continuation shift to ETH. Sideways will be more of a wait and see scenario. Down would make me look more cautious but see what the ETHUSD main chart is doing making note if there is significant deeper pullbacks

Noting ETHUSD topping out when ETHBTC was entering next fib level of 50% on the 1h timeframe. BTC continued to move to a HH here as well.


*On mobile + scaled out another portion hitting my timeframe target as mentioned in the trade plan. Raising my stop for the last 30% of my position.

Noting here that the BTC price action is remarkable above 10k. ETHBTC chart showing some sideways + bottom reversal processing.

Updated : Trade management overview. Scaled out 1st position early morning. Was planning to re-add later in the day but price had moved significantly on first consolidation so just raised stop. The break of 300 was significant and with bull followthrough. Stop re-adjusted and not seeing if bulls can keep up the momentum which hasn't any notable signs of exhaustion. There key levels but I think they can continue to be broken with momentum and follow through. I'm looking at potentially putting on a position in XRPUSD which will be breakout out of a mid-term consolidation as well.
ETHUSD 1h,

BTCUSD 1h,

XRPUSD D, Next trade idea. A+ Trade potential. Pending review. VWAP's from ATH, 2018 low, and first day of trading. VWAP support is from 2018 lows's. VWAP's of levels of potential resistance are from ATH's and the day 2 of trading (1st day data anchoring TV issue).

Trade Review
Quick trade review after journaling the modified quick flip XRP swing (notes on the other trade). I re-adjusted this stop after shortly waking up between my sleep. (not too bad as this is during my off day from work so I have time to rest also the market has reached the most volatile environment change thus far for the year). I was managing my trade for XRP and at the same time the market pulled back notably. My stop was filled and manually decided to exit XRP positions. Will have to re-asses and make intraday short-term trades based of the hourly chart down to the 2 min due to volatility. The other option is to sit on the sidelines, comfortably on cash/realized gains and observing.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-06-16 01:03:37 ETH buy $274.820 long
2019-06-21 09:40:25 ETH sell $284.000 long
2019-06-21 21:52:19 ETH sell $303.500 long
2019-06-22 10:34:40 ETH sell $304.440 0


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