GLD Trade on Jun 28, 2019 15:40 from kerobo0000: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Rationale:
-elevated IVR on gold (butterfly pricing is favorable when IVR elevated)
-note this was also a directional trade based on the daily chart pattern
-GLD has been exploding higher before pulling back of the highs and has been consolidating sideways fro 3 days
-believe there is a higher likelihood for continuation (strong volume) vs. pullback given it gapped above important resistance ~$!28 (gapped and never looked back - 4 straight up days)

Trade Planning
-structure: unbalanced butterfly
-major support: ~132.30, 128.35
-add point: pullback to 132-132.50 but finding support, ideally a strong move away from the support level to demonstrate strong support
-stop loss (price & PnL): hold below 131.50 (approximately -$50 loss on 2 lots
-take profit price / risk-reduction plan: scale out of 1 lot if price begins to stall at $134 and stalls, otherwise leave and reassess at 21DTE (no risk to upside)

IVR= 86.26
IV/HV=124.6%
Potential ROC= 510/290= 176% (max); 110/290=38% (min if position works out ie, price stays above 131.50)
Key corporate events (earnings, dividend, investor day, etc.)= NA, etf
How much risk should/did I take? $290, appropriate, may add more if I get the opportunity

2019-07-05 13:35:58
-entering this update late
-scaled into 1 more butterfly on 7/2 as GLD gapped down prior day but traded was began to move back up through the 132.31 it gapped down through
-lower breakeven is 131.41

2019-07-12 21:22:47
-scaled into two additional butterflys for $1.51
-lower breakeven: 131.47
-$733 of total risk in the trade
-I will stop out if there is a break and hold below 131.50
-have set up GTC sell orders for 30-50% profit

Recap:
2019-07-19 00:40:05
-exit 2 lots for 30% winner as gold exploded higher today

2019-08-01 17:15:20
-exited 2 additional lots for 46% ROC

2019-08-02 16:10:51
-exited remaining lot (now 14 DTE) for a 60% ROC

How could I have traded this better?
-traded it well, had GTC orders in the order book, and increased the target for last tier

Gain/loss relative to expected gain/loss:
-gain better than expected as I was able to exit part of this position for as much as 60% ROC; typical target is 30% ROC