TGT Trade on Jun 28, 2019 15:30 from kerobo0000: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Rationale:
-TGT has been trading in a range after making a big move up during the days following its earnings release (has been sideways since 6/5)
-on 6/26 and 6/27 it tested the bottom side of the range, and was unable to break lower
-wanted to have upside exposure in the event it breaks higher, while also profiting if it stays in the $86-88 range

Trade Planning
-structure: unabalnced butterfly
-major support: 86.32, 85.23
-add point: can add small if there is another move towards the bottom of the range and it holds (have to watch very closely)
-stop loss (price & PnL): break and hold below 84.50; ~$55 loss
-B.E.: 84.68 (lower); none (upper)
-take profit price / risk-reduction plan: if price gets to 87.5 and stalls, can scale out of 1/2

IVR= 11.35
IV/HV= 70.2%
Potential ROC= 565/431=131% (max); 69/431=16% (min if position is stays above 84.68)
Key corporate events (earnings, dividend, investor day, etc.)= no, earnings on 8/21 after Aug expiration
How much risk should/did I take? $431 (appropriate, will increase this to 8-10% if given the opportunity, believe risk/reward is there since I got in really close to support)

2019-07-01 21:35:27
-TGT gapped up today then fell below prior close before closing slightly above it on the day / it also came down and bounced off the major 86.32 support, which presented a good add point
-position was working, so added on a retracement
-updated lower B.E.: $84.74

2019-07-10 23:14:14
-TGT traded down the last two days, today there was a big red candle ($2.32 range; closed down 1.95/2.22%) on elevated volume
-think there is a high likelihood that price bounces (similar to how it did with CPB, MNST)
-added 1 more lot, want to potentially add 1 more lot; would like more upside exposure - can look into the 2/3/1 85/87.5/90 unbalanced butterfly
-$1,127 of total risk (so have room for 1-2 more lots before it hits 10% of NLV
-updated lower side break even is 84.76
-note squeeze setting up

2019-07-11 21:14:51
-target continues to hold 86.30 support, so I added one more lot
-now at full size for this position (just under 10%)
-breakeven still at 84.76

Recap:
2019-08-02 16:20:59
-took off 4/6 lots today
-yesterday (which was 1 day after rate cut announcement), Trump announced new tariffs on China
-this really hurt the market and specifically retail stocks
-this position went from +250 to -700 in a few minutes

How could I have traded this better?
-exited when there was 21 DTE to expiration (action plan could be to create a calendar reminder for the first week when DTE is less than 21)
-when w/in 21 DTE have to be willing to accept a reduced profit target
-could this experience be a reason to trade with a stop on positions that are in the profit (or at least a stop on part of the position)

Gain/loss relative to expected gain/loss:
-loss much much much larger than I would've imagined; due to trump tariff announcement and me being away from my computer when the announcement happened