CGC Trade on Jul 3, 2019 12:46 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Marius

 

Re-entering a larger CGC position here after selling in pre-market. Notable shift in momentum on the news. I'm favoring this more bullish now with the reversal. This is adding to the notes I've had in the previous. Even though I exited at the loss I wanted to see how the market was going to react to the key fundamental news. It looks initial bearish with no follow-through and a complete reversal adding more buying pressure. This is one of the main reasons why I'm taking on a larger trade. I looked at other possible trades CWBHF and IIPR but CGC made the most sense for me. And form a reward / risk standpoint was better. RVOL is noted here in the stats only because it is notable but everything else is within range as previous trade.

  • RVOL D, elevated RVOL + half day session 2.16

CGC D, back above my noted VWAP's from previous trade. Complete reversal and I think it has more fuel to get over the resistances now. (will update on market psychology here later)
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Reviewing the price action I view the market psychology as an initial bear break on fundamental news. Technically there was no follow through and a whipsaw reversal on the failed bear break. I'm thinking the quote "from failed moves come fast moves" Meaning the market was selling + shorting from this news and technical break but now price has reversed getting back above the level with market participants re-buying + new participants buying recognizing what's happening + shorts having to cover the new positions. I think all of this is a recipe for a big move or the "fast move". The trading volume alone is a notable indicator but the technicals on the chart show it. Fundamentally speaking I don't have a firm grip on how investors are seeing this as. If they have a long bias we could see additional buying from from large firms. This is definitely a key event where I would anchor a VWAP for future analysis. Price is still above the anchored VWAP from IPO. There has been some aggressive buying from a known institution the last couple days as well but not 100% sure how this could be used as clear support of my thesis as I'm not sure of the institutions thesis but buying. (but I can used that as evidence of buying pressure)

WEED, 5m US holiday but TSX open. Lower volume but wanted to include for Friday's outlook.
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SPY had initial weakness in pre-market and open from Friday reports but nothing concerning as it was just at ATH's. CGC looked very correlated and I pulled my original stop at 40 with the sharp move down. Originally I was watching the charts from mobile but noticed I was missing major info due to the level it was it. I got on my laptop and watched the tape. There was definitely a battle going on and both aggressive bid hitting by the sellers but at the same rate buyers refilling the bids. I see it as a shorter-term win for the bulls but with SPY correlation. Meanwhile I was looking at CWEB aggressively filling it's gap and uncorrelated to SPY. I've mentioned in the past that I've scalped before but not so much this year. More shorter to mid-term swings but in this case it helps with the shorter-term time frame skills. As I was able to pull my original stop and manage my swing trade intuitively. The trade still needs more development and I still may have to take a loss here but short term win for the bulls and more practice on the tape reading skills and adjusting trade management.
CGC 1m, trade overview for the morning
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CGC 15m, development to follow with the mid-term timeframe trend change
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SPY 5m,
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CGC 5m, decided to trim my position to 50% here take an initial smaller loss. I can manage the rest with an updated risk level and original thesis in mind. If I get stopped out here again I will be calling it hands-off trading CGC on my timeframes until there is a confirmed clear break. It has been mostly chop and an opportunity cost. Still learning something nevertheless.
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Update, included tick chart + A/D line for intraday market breadth since we were seeing correlations in SPY. I use this every now and then to gauge the intraday market breadth.
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CGC D, Noting recent pullback to 61.8 fib level and major support area. Seeing big buying volume on the daily around the support levels. A notable support level. Still in a half underperforming position. Potential political related catalysts for Wednesday. SPY strong bounce from a gap down open as well.
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SPY 65m,
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TICK + ADD 5m, showing intraday breadth correlation of US Markets
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Updating later tonight but exited rest of position EOD. Planning new trade in tech sector. FB has my interest.

I was more wrong in this trade after exiting the initial 50%. The MJ sector as a whole has not done much proving even while market ATH's. I view this now a more bearish cycle for the MJ sector. My performance was mixed bottom fishing and now show's under performance. I will have to keep my trades away from this developing strategy until I gain more experience. I'm much better in my momentum trades on a mid to longer-term time frames for swings.

CGC 65m,
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CGC 65m, Next day follow-up price action. Critical level bearish break. I'll have to run the VWAP from IPO to compare how many times the stock dropped to that level or below..
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CGC D, part of my main thesis was this longer-term VWAP line. This was an interesting trade and I've executed here with a low risk high reward set-up. Just adding more notes after the trade.
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Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-07-03 12:46:09 CGC buy $40.940 long
2019-07-05 11:33:43 CGC sell $40.307 long
2019-07-10 15:44:00 CGC sell $38.865 0


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