M Trade on Aug 14, 2019 10:01 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Company Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Department Stores

Macy's, Inc., an omnichannel retail organization, operates stores, Websites, and mobile applications. The company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories for men, women, and children; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods. As of April 1, 2019, it operated approximately 680 department stores under the Macy's and Bloomingdale's names; and 190 specialty stores, such as Bloomingdale's The Outlet, Bluemercury, Macy's Backstage, and STORY in 43 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, and Puerto Rico. It also operated macys.com, bloomingdales.com, and bluemercury.com. In addition, the company offers licenses for its stores; and operates a beauty products and spa retailer under the bluemercury name. The company was formerly known as Federated Department Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Macy's, Inc. in June 2007. Macy's, Inc. was founded in 1830

Trade Scenario

EPS of 28 cents on revenue of 5.55 B$. Same-store sales grew 0.2% on an owned basis and 0.3% on an owned plus licensed basis.

Trade Variables

Symbol : M
Gap : -15%
RVOL : 10.31
pmVOL : > 5M
avg Vol: 9M
Float: 308M
Short Float: 14.89%
pmPATTERN : 2 Bear Flags
Catalyst : ER release

Technical Levels

Support: 16.14 15.49
Resistance: 17
Inflection:

Trade Plan

Short below 16.14 for a 5min ORB or short after 15min consolidation for a down trend continuation setup if price consolidates below 16.14

Set-up : 5min ORB Down-Trend Continuation.
Side : Short
Size : 200
Entry : 16.14
Takes :
Exit : 0.12$

Comments

M dropped hard due to ER release. The release was not a bad news but I have been influenced by the big drop and made a wrong plan. Shorting the 16 against 15.49 level of support. It was a hopeless plan.
The hopeless plan consisted in entering for a 5min ORB but price action was not the best I could expect so I have decided to enter after the pull back at VWAP. Entered once VWAP has been cracked the first and the second time. Unfortunately I haven't been able to spot on the tape significant point of reversal up to when I have entered the trade. I have immediately got out as soon as I have spot a huge order around the 15.90sh. The first time I let the price go against me but the second I have stopped it. I was right. I was not right in shorting it but I have spotted when price wanted to turn back. Indeed 16 level hasn't been traded anymore after that order! Obviously bouncing and holding once at 15.75 just at the support area. I wanted after that to long but after two wrong attempts I have to stop for the sake of my daily max loss/pnl.

I have to admit that I am finding really difficult to trade lately. I don't really understand how to spot a good entry! It's the first time I am trading in summer and the volatility marking those days gave me confidence to trade regularly but perhaps the side effect of trading in summer is just that. Not a really clear move not a real clear direction.

Perhaps I should start to enter more in details analyzing the nature of the er release and the % of short float. I guess a 15% short float would indicate that shares are gonna be recycled and repurchased? I have to get deeper into this!
BTW besides the summer and all the other excuses, I can't trade anymore against levels of support/resistance! I have to stay focused!!!

14/08/2019 Later in the day
I have found that a short float above 30% with good ER will imply a move up!

I have also realized that my stats are way better on Long trades! Too much better!
Could it be that I am better going long?

Long:
Total gain/loss: 27.59R; Profit Factor: 2.18; SQN: 2.3; Accuracy: 57%; Best time of the day: from 9:35 till 10:15; Green 9 out of 10 months; I should trade from Tuesday till
Thurday specially Thursday!

Short:
Total gain/loss: -3.11R; Profit Factor: 0.94; SQN: 0; Accuracy: 47%; Best time of the day: from 10:15 till 10:45; Green 4 out of 10 months; I should trade on Thursday and Friday
specially Friday!

Is it wrong to have a plan like this?:

Monday no trades or very limited size to build up eventually a good long trade!
Tuesday: Long from 09:35 till 10:29
Wednesday: Long from 09:35 till 10:29
Thursday: Long from 09:35 till 10:29 and Short from 10:15 till 10:59
Friday: Short from 10:15 till 10:59

ANY OTHER ENTRY OUTSIDE OF THIS PLAN NEEDS DIFFERENT SETUPS THAN THE ONES I USE. FOR ME TO TRADE OUTSIDE OF THIS PLAN I HAVE TO BACK TEST IT WITH 200 TRADES AS I DID WITH THE FIRST PLAN!
From now on I would like just to describe why I exited to a trade and my trade management. My entries, setups, stocks, variables and scenario are ALREADY SET DOWN PRIOR MY ENTRY AND RESPOND TO THE SAME REPEATED SCENARIO I TRADED TILL TODAY EXCEPT ALL MY FAILED TRIES ON DIFFERENT SETUPS!
Let's see if I am able to stick to the plan!