M Trade on Aug 14, 2019 09:30 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Trade Review
M
Intraday Fundamentals
• August 14, 2019 08:15 AM ET (BZ Newswire) -- Earnings
• Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) reported adjusted second-quarter earnings of 28 cents per share, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of 46 cents. This is a 60% decrease over earnings of 70 cents per share from the same period last year.
• The company reported quarterly sales of $5.546 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $5.55 billion. This is a 0.47% decrease over sales of $5.572 billion the same period last year.
• Macy's cut fiscal year 2019 EPS guidance from $3.05-$3.25 to $2.85-$3.05 versus the $3.07 estimate.
• "Macy's, Inc. delivered another quarter of comparable sales growth,” said CEO Jeff Gennette. “That said, we had a slow start to the quarter and finished below our expectations. Rising inventory levels became a challenge based on a combination of factors: a fashion miss in our key women's sportswear private brands, slow sell-through of warm weather apparel and the accelerated decline in international tourism. We took markdowns to clear the excess Spring inventory and are entering the Fall season with the right inventory to meet anticipated customer demand."
• Macy's shares were trading down 12.7% at $16.91 in Wednesday’s pre-market session. The stock has a 52-week high of $41.99 and a 52-week low of $18.86.
Technicals
ADV 9.5 RVOL 1.68 BETA .55 ATR .76 Short 13.62% Inst Own 97%
Daily

Hourly

Intraday

Trading Plan
• Look for short at 18.86, 19.50 and 20 if it rebounds at the open
• Short under the PM LOW at 16.62 there is no support under this
• Avoid longs unless there is a clear characteristic change later in the day
• If you see a trend break pay as a scalp, bigger and less of a move tight stop this
Reading the tape
I noticed certain spots where the selling seemed heavy in the pre-market around .35 and less strength from move to .40 at the open. The tape took a few seconds to print anything out side of a three cent range moved to .50 and quickly came back in. the ensuing rebound skipped some prices on the way up but I would see a few heavy offers through out the spike. The tape seemed to confirm the trade was working as it tried to base a little bit at 16.10. It still seemed weak. It looked like it would flush 16. I felt a few closes under 16 would send this to 15.20. But, it broke 16 without a lot of momentum and larger bids started to show. They would get eaten up for a little bit and started to spike here and there. I used this as a reason to cover.
Trade Management

Trade Review
• Good plan I wanted to short this under 16.62 form some PM price action
• Opening print should have made me consider the limit in at 16.62
• It was planned to take at the opening candle once the tape looked weak
• Target was 15.20 set risk according to that target about 3 to 1
• Tape was the most readable I have seen yet. I feel it told this would not make the move that I was looking for.
• I got flat just under 1for 1
• This all should have been a sign to change the overall bias for the day this ran up on a tough overall day.
Trade grade
Aspect Score Poss. Notes
Preparation 8 10 Yes , planned Pre market executed as desgined
Hard Work 9 10 There was a lot of patience to set up for this short and time spent trying to see what I could on the tape. My strongest read yet.
Patience 7 10 I waited to see if 16.00 would breakdown further and it didn’t
Plan 8 10 Yes
Discipline 6 10 Yeah.. I felt the trade went bad and did not hope I was wrong and took it off
Contribution NA 10

Replay 0 10 I do have tape of this

image


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-08-14 09:30:31 M sell $16.294 short
2019-08-14 09:44:55 M buy $15.955 0


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