GES Trade on Aug 29, 2019 09:41 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

GES
Intraday Fundamentals
• Guess? Inc. (GES) beat Wall Street forecasts for revenue and adjusted profit in its latest quarter, helped along by stronger demand in Europe.
• The clothing designer and retailer reported net revenue of $683.2 million for its fiscal second quarter, up about 6% compared to a year ago. Revenue at the Los Angeles-based company was up 9% after stripping out the impact of currency fluctuations.
• Analysts polled by FactSet predicted $671.4 million in revenue for the latest period, which ended Aug. 3.
• The company reported a profit of $25.3 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with $25.5 million, or 31 cents a share, a year earlier. Earnings, after adjustments, of 38 cents a share beat the consensus estimate by nine cents.
• Guess shares jumped 8% in postmarket trading. The stock is down 28% so far this year, through Wednesday.
• Guess said its European business produced $340.5 million in revenue in the quarter, up 9% compared with the year earlier.
• The company's board of directors also approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.1125 per common share, maintained from the previous quarter, and payable on Sept. 27 to shareholders on record as of Sept. 11.
• Guess? Inc. shares rose sharply in after-hours trading Wednesday after the fashion retailer raised its profit forecast for its fiscal year and said it expects minimal effects from further tariffs between the U.S. and China.
• Guess Chief Executive Carlos Alberini said Wednesday that Guess had been able to mitigate risks related to tariffs in China by negotiating with vendors over the issue. Potential tariff increases won't have much of an effect on the company, he told analysts.
• Apparel companies fear that tariffs between the U.S. and China will crimp their profits and force store closures. Around 40% of all clothing sold in the U.S. is made in China. The Trump administration has threatened to implement 10% tariffs on Chinese-made clothing and shoes starting Sept. 1.

Technicals
ADV 2m RVOL 1.74 BETA .51 ATR .77 Short 23.13 Inst Own 78%
Daily

Hourly

Intraday

Trading Strategy
• If this stock spikes to 18 at the open on a long wick, take the short as cloe to that level as possible keep trailing the stop and look to take half off at 17 hold the other half until 16.65 or 16.50 depending on the tape
• If the stock flusheat the open look for a longs at 16.50 or 16 depending on how strong the move down is in the opening.
• If the stocks come out of the gate holds 17, wait for some consolidation around VWAP and take the trade is I begins to move
• I expect some profit taking for the first few minutes of trading and would think the best option is to look for an opening support play 16.50 or 16, at which point I would expect the trapped shorts to start covering on any significant pull back at the opening
• You can be powerful with a stock like this, let it tell you what direction it is going to take and try to stay with the trend
Reading the Tape
I did feel like the velocity of green prints as this passed above VWAP looked strong. I do not think that this promoted the trade however. It was the a couple of large clusters of offers and the slowing green prints that lead me to believe that this trade was not going to make another HoD after the pullback. The main reason that I went flat
Trade Management

Trade Review
• I did not have a plan to get long this at the open above 18
• I did have a plan to look for consolidation above VWAP if it open and held above 17
• I adjusted to look to go long if it retook VWAP with as strong as this opened
• Momentum seemed strong as it crossed over VWAP meeting what I was looking
• I need to trigger a little closer to the VWAP break
• The price action got weak initially and the subsequent move back to 18.90 led me to believe that I may want to pull in my stop or flatten. I decided to flatten at one to one.
• *** Looking back.. I have not seen a stock pull back as much as this did if they are going to continue to put in new HoDs in the first 30 minutes of trading. ***
Trade Grade
Aspect Score Poss. Notes
Preparation 7 10 I had several levels to work with and I knew why this was moving in such a positive manner
Hard Work 6 10 I focused on this throughout the pre-market and into the trade
Patience 8 10 Yes.. I did show some patience and did not chase the opening move as I tried recalculate how I could get long
Plan 6 10 I had a target of HoD a stop planned and an entry
Discipline 3 10 I am going to say not really. I think that if I would have just adjusted the stop and try and hold until my target would have been a disciplined trade
Contribution NA 10

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