Shares traded: 200
Closed Gross P&L: $-49.50
• 04:34 PM EDT, 09/03/2019 (MT Newswires) -- Tyson Foods (TSN) shares fell as much as 8% in extended trading on Tuesday after the US food company lowered its adjusted earnings guidance for its current fiscal year.
• The company said in a statement that it is revising its FY19 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of 5.30 to 5.70. That compared to its previous guidance of $5.75 to $6.10. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Capital IQ was for adjusted EPS of $5.97.
• Tyson Foods said it's experiencing "short-term challenges that are negatively affecting" its fiscal Q4 earnings.
• "The discrete challenges we've encountered this quarter now lead us to believe we will fall short of our previously stated guidance," the company quoted its CEO, Noel White, as saying in the statement. "But our outlook for fiscal 2020 remains positive as we believe some of the challenges we're experiencing are not expected to repeat, and we're expecting more favorable market conditions as well."
ADV 2.5 m RVOL .88 BETA .42 ATR 2.15 Short 1.5%
*** the guide down here is related to China, but there was a statement made that this does not answer all the concerns over the lowered outlook.
• Short 90 if it moves back to that level at the opening and cannot hold or break, follow the momentum to the downside
• If it holds 90, wait and looks to see if it stays flat or starts to build some upside momentum to 91
• This is shortable under 89.50 as well if you cannot hit 90 target 88 on those trades
• Follow the price action as it approaches 87 if the fallout is there. Consider a scalp long with either 89 or VWAP being the target
Reading the Tape
The sellers were stepping down quickly as this started to break down from the opening push past 90. Even on the one positive candle were the trade was triggered the sellers just kept stepping down and taking the bids.
I needed to stay focused on the tape. The tape stayed weak after getting out of the trade for at least the next couple of minutes even as it seemed to bounce off 88.75.
• This was a planned scalp pre-market.
• Entry candle demanded a little more risk than I had put on,
• Risk was .13 cents and the reward 62 cents.. solid return on a planned scalp. But, the loosed stop would have turned into a 1.5 to 1 trade
• I need to assign importance to the levels that I choose which may have given me a target of 89 and not 89.40 ish
• I was watching when this tested VWAP from the underneath. This was a great set-up to take a longer term short.. I need to take this risk when I see and let the “stats” tell me not to, if they do.
• I did stick to a pretty detailed plan on this trade.
Aspect Score Poss. Notes
Preparation 8 10 I used some past trading experience with this stock to help me build a couple of scenarios this moring
Hard Work 7 10 This was my best idea and I had watched the tape 15 minutes prior to taking the short at 90 like the AM Game plan
Patience 7 10 Yes.. on the entry not as much on the exit
Plan 7 10 Very much so… I planned on covering at the next level of support. In this case, it was a non level
Discipline 5 10 I followed the plan.. I did not think after the strong move to the upside at the open that tis short would present itself.
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