XLE Trade on Sep 16, 2019 09:40 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

XLE
Intraday Fundamentals
• Oil prices soared after a coordinated attack hit the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry on Saturday, forcing the kingdom to cut its oil output in half.
• Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, rose as much as 19.5% to $71.95 per barrel, which is the biggest intraday jump on record. By 7:45 a.m. ET, the contract was at $66.58, up $6.36 or 10.56%.
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• U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed as much as 15.5% to $63.34. The contract was later at $60.24, up $5.39 or 9.83%.
• An oil processing facility at Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field was attacked on Saturday, knocking out 5.7 million barrels of daily crude production or 50% of the kingdom’s oil output. Saudi Aramco, the national oil company, reportedly aims to restore about a third of its crude output, or 2 million barrels by Monday.
• “While in the short term the direct physical impact on the market might be limited, this should move the market away from its bearish macroeconomic cycle and raise the risk premium in the market as funds reduce their short positions,” said Chris Midgley, global head of analytics, S&P Global Platts.
• The entire energy patch is higher. It is hard to pick and individual name and these are the stocks in play today doe to the macro news.
Technicals
ADV 4.32 M RVOL .98 ATR 1.19
Daily

HOURLY

Intraday 5

Trading Plan
• Long bias until notes about production increases come about
• There has already been some rotation into the energy patch the last couple of trading sessions the may be some additional support on last weeks intraday highs.
• Look for am opening long at 63.. the stop will be around 61.50 this is a 15 share trade to start a position with room for some profit taking during the morning session. Target 65 or take the loss.
• If 64. Holds through price discovery, look for a long on a pull back and 63.70 as a stop area. Target 65.50 or take the loss
• VWAP plays tight stops larger size, move stop until a free trade and then manage the trade if it lets you.
Reading the tape

I did read the tape through out this. I kept seeing larger offers appear and push a few cents and disappear and reappear. It did look like there were more sellers than buyers most of the break below 62.90.
Trade Management

Trade Review
• I worked a morning plan to take this at 63 if it held. I did hit the offer a bit higher than was planned.
• I was targeting 65. This should have adjusted here as this sold off just prior to the opening more than I expected and realized. I did expect 63 to be a long on a bigger flush at the opening not before the open.
• I took the trade based on 1.50 risk with the intention of setting the stop closer as the price moved with the intention of reducing this as I scaled in and volatility decreased. I needed to plan a possible scale in prior to trying to figure it out during
• I moved the stop to 62.40 and just flattened as the tape just continue to look weak.
• I really needed to expect a longer period of profit taking. This bottomed at 830 and trended higher the rest of the day.
Trade Grade
Preparation 7 10 I knew why this was moving. I have not tried to trade an ETF like this. I heard throughout the day the most traders do avoid energy and metal etfs. I felt the choosing anything else was just guessing, So, I felt that I had a plan to give this a test trade.
Hard Work 7 10 I tried to read this throughout. I felt the tape was weak and even when it started to look stronger it moved down another couple cents.
Patience 5 10 Not great, I was on a plan to try a trade to hold

Plan 8 10 Yes actually…
Discipline 6 10 Yeah, I could have limited in and I probably should have let it hit the stop. It may not have but probably would have.