FDX Trade on Sep 18, 2019 09:39 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

FDX
Intraday Fundamentals
• 04:17 PM EDT, 09/17/2019 (MT Newswires) -- FedEx's (FDX) adjusted EPS fell to $3.05 in Q1 from $3.46 a year earlier, missing analysts' estimates of $3.15 in a Capital IQ poll. Revenue was flat at $17.05 billion from a year ago, in line with expectations.
• Looking ahead, FedEx said it is lowering its fiscal 2020 earnings forecast as its revenue outlook has been reduced due to increased trade tensions and additional weakening of global economic conditions since its initial fiscal 2020 forecast in June. It said that the revised outlook also reflects increased FedEx Ground costs and August's loss of FedEx Ground business from a large customer.
• The company said it now expects earnings of $10.00 to $12.00 per diluted share before the year-end mark-to-market (MTM) retirement plan accounting adjustment, and earnings of $11.00 to $13.00 per diluted share before the year-end MTM retirement plan accounting adjustment and excluding TNT Express integration expenses. CIQ estimates expected adjusted EPS of $14.62 and GAAP EPS of $13.69 for the fiscal year, if comparable.
• FedEx Falls After Q1 Earnings Miss
• FedEx Sees Much Bigger Profit Drop Amid Trade Tensions -- Market Talk
• FedEx is continuing to raise prices to offset the higher costs associated with all of the online orders to homes. Next year, it plans to raise rates an average of 4.9% on packages sent through its Express and Ground networks, while imposing a 5.9% rate increase on Freight shipments.
• A few target cuts by analysts
Technicals
cker FDX [NYSE, S&P 500]

Company FedEx Corporation

Country USA

Industry Air Delivery & Freight Services

Market Cap 45.05B Perf Week 0.60%
Beta 1.75 Perf Month 11.09%
ATR 4.29 Perf Quarter 4.18%
Volatility W 2.11% Perf Half Y -4.47%
Volatility M 2.34% Perf Year -32.16%
SMA20 7.33% Perf YTD 7.42%
SMA50 5.98% RSI (14) 63.22
SMA200 -0.31% Change Open 0.54%
52W High -33.15% Gap -0.69%
52W Low 17.24% Rel Volume 1.80
Short Float 1.77% Avg Volume 2.15M
Candlestick Spinning Top White 52W Range 147.82 - 259.25

Daily

Hourly

Intraday

Trading Strategy
• If this pushes past 156, start looking to short this as close to 157 as possible, the risk is most likely at 157 going to 1 point so take it with 15 shares and target 152
• I f this cannot push past, 157 at the open, consider the early short at 10 shares givning your self a stop above 158 for any over extension target 152
• If this moves to 151 take the long at 25 shares and give your self a .8o cent stop with a target of the opening print
• After price discovery, if 152 is tested and holds make a plan to get long and scale in for a trade to hold to 160, a little less than a 50% gap fill over the next couple of days.
Reading the Tape

I did not read the tape and look for large buyers or sellers around 151. I should have spent more time on this one pre trade. The intended feeler and the wide stop I had planned made a lot less conscious.
On the second trade, I did see some large bids around 148.70. I felt that I should look for a long if it held above 149.
Trade Management

Trade Review
• 151 came into play a little quicker than I had and this stock did not seem to slow down at what I had as support 1. I adjust the long down to give room for two points for opening range volatility with the thought of adding above VWAP as it began to hold.
• I moved the stop to one point as this started to hold above 151.10. I did feel that 150 would hold for the psychological factor of that number and the stock being off as much as it was already.
• After 800, I need to move the stop to just underneath the opening range low. This need to be a rule in situations like this. In this case, the stop probably should have been moved to a bit under the consolidation at 151.10 ish.
• Adding the risk with the move stop would have allowed for a lower target. In this case, it would have stopped either way.
• I did watch some large bidders around .70 and decided that a second attempt at a long around 149 should be considered. In hindsight, I should have taken as I saw this on the tape with a little more size that the first trade and the second trade that I took on the momentum.
• A little patience and a better entry closer to 149 I would have had a winner that would have allowed me to close out near 150 and end up about + 2R for the morning.
• I need to remember that I have step down in sizing and risk to get more trades in per day and get stats. That was definitely a consolidation play that needed to be added to the stats.
Trade Grade
Preparation 8 10 I was prepared for this I aware of what to look for in the earnings. I felt the sell of was overdone and 151 should hold be the end of day if not 154 or 155. I did not have a plan for trading 150 which seems obvious in hindsight and I missed what ever price action there was that would have set 148.50 as a lvl.
Hard Work 6 10 Yes, in most aspects, keep up with chart and the order flow
Patience 5 10 Not on the second trade. A better entry on the second trade I am profitable on the day.
Plan 7 10 Yes actually…
Discipline 4 10 Lack of action once, SEMI FOMO once planned take at the opening
Contribution NA 10

Replay 0 10