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Shared by
Cklamb

 

KMX

Sep 24, 2019 09:40


Shares traded: 40
Closed Gross P&L: $-14.20

Tags:

Long Resistance Play

KMX
Intraday Fundamentals –
• *CarMax 2Q CarMax Auto Finance Income Rose 4.1% to $114.1M >KMX
• CarMax Q2 EPS $1.4 Beats $1.33 Estimate, Sales $5.2B Beat $5.06B Estimate
• *MW CarMax Q2 EPS $1.40 vs. $1.24 a year ago
• *MW CarMax Q2 FactSet EPS consensus $1.33
• *MW CarMax Q2 sales $5.20 bln vs. $4.77 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus $5.05 bln
• *MW CarMax Q2 used vehicle sales $4.35 bln vs. $3.98 bln a year ago; FactSet consensus $4.26 bln
• *MW CarMax Q2 same-store sales up 3.2%; FactSet consensus up 3.3%
• *MW CarMax Q2 ave. selling price for used vehicles up 2.9% to $20,581
• CarMax Inc. (KMX) reported Tuesday fiscal second-quarter profit and revenue that rose above expectations, helped by strength in used vehicle sales. The used car retailer's stock was still inactive in premarket trading. Net income for the quarter to Aug. 31 rose to $233.6 million , or $1.40 a share, from $220.9 million , or $1.24 a share, in the year-ago period. The FactSet consensus for earnings per share was $1.33 . Net sales grew 9.1% to $5.20 billion , above the FactSet consensus of $5.05 billion , as used vehicle sales increased 9.3% to $4.35 billion to beat expectations of $4.26 billion . Same-store sales increased 3.2%, just below the FactSet consensus of 3.3%. Used unit sales rose 6.2% to 209,091 vehicles and average used vehicle selling prices grew 2.9% to $20,581 . The stock has run up 38.5% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 19.3%.

Technicals
ADV 1.48 RVOL 1.68 ATR 2.12 BETA 1.16 Short 12.% Inst Own –

Daily

Hourly

Intraday

• This was bought going into the close yesterday. It struggle on the initial break of 87 and pulled back just before the close.
• On the Intra, an opening at 90 would mean the last week of buyers are up about 4-5% with buyers on the open yesterday being up almost 10%
Trading Strategy
SUPPORT 87 to 87.30 ,88 89.50
Resistance 90, 91 to 91.30, 92 all time high
100 Possible target for a swing
• Look for a long 88.50 and build it at 89 if it starts to hold above there, start with a stop 87.90 target 91 taking half off at 90
• If that trade fails, try again at 87 and add above 88
• Scalp short at the open with if it tests 91 target 89, you will need to be small use 91.40 to calculate
• Long at 86 if it gets there, that would take two losers to get to
Reading the Tape
I watched through the pre market. I read some strength in there that was not there.
On the second trade, I had been watching this since the first trade while scanning other stocks. Looking for the support at 87. The tape wasn’t looking weak and I had the plan to take this at 87. I did not see anything that would make me take or avoid the trade. I think I may have missed some important action around 87.25 as it came in.
Trade Management

First trade notes
• The plan was to take the long at 88.50 (or lower). I hesitated and then I chased this. The 88.50 would have set up for a partial and a free trade.
• My Bias was to strong. I got anxious on the trade and did see some of the signs that this may be a better short
• Risk was well defined and sized to a volatile open.
Second Trade
• I had a plan for .35 cents did not fill where that was going to work like I thought. I delayed setting the stop and had to hit the bid after a few seconds of hoping for a bounce.
• Even a few seconds can be brutal, I was sized well enough to take the extra few cents and should not have delayed. Set the deep stop and slide it up( it is as simple as that) Doing this would have let me make it back to profitable.
Trade Grades
Preparation 4 10 I though I was prepared. I had a long bias on this. I expected profit taking but was not prepared for the path of that profit taking.
Hard Work 8 10 I stayed very focused on this throughout both trades.
Patience 8 10 Bad patience on the first trade.. good hold for a break of 87 and the retest

Plan 7 10 The second trade was planned and poorly executed and vice versa on the first
Discipline 8 10 Yes on the first trade. set the trade and got stopped. The second trade I needed to get the stop up faster and slide it up as I was adjusting for the entry.
Contribution NA 10


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Qty Price Position
2019-09-24 09:40:23 KMX 20 $89.110 20
2019-09-24 09:42:08 KMX -20 $88.400 0


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