KBH Trade on Sep 26, 2019 09:41 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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MarcoG

 

Company Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Residential Construction

KB Home operates as a homebuilding company in the United States. It operates in four segments: West Coast, Southwest, Central, and Southeast. The company builds and sells various homes, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes, and condominiums primarily for first-time, first move-up, and active adult homebuyers. It has operations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Washington. The company was formerly known as Kaufman and Broad Home Corporation and changed its name to KB Home in January 2001. KB Home was founded in 1957.

Trade Scenario

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.25 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.40 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 150%

Trade Variables

Symbol : KBH
Gap : 2.15%
RVOL : 5.58 ( avg 3 last 3 days)
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: 1.6 M
Vol @ Day : 2 M
Float: 80 M
Short Float: 6%
pmPATTERN : Huge drop and regain up to consolidation point. Up-Trend continuation and open at high of pm)
Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support: 32.50(ath) 32
Resistance: 33 33.50 34 34.50
Inflection:32.50

Trade Plan

Price sat above ath level of resistance already in pm. A further move retesting pm high could be a possible scenario. I would not discard the idea of a fade in case price will get to retest pm level of support and crack that at the open!

Set-up : Down-Trend Continuation, 15 min Cons, 52 Weeks High Fade
Side : Short
Size : 50 ( wrong AGAIN)
Entry : 32.53
Takes : 32.37 32.22
Exit : 32.68

Comments

Let's start immediately from what I did good and with what I did wrong.

Good things:
Entry. Has been a good entry and I could not expect to get a better fill after the flush at the open.
1st take was respected.

Bad things:
Take 2 was wrong, I have accidentally typed again the first target instead of the second. I was lucky that price got back down for me to lock in a piece at target 2.
The stop break even was something I was doubtful about during the entire trade. I wanted actually to add at that level.
I will remove this practice. In the end the stop will involve a quarter of my position, thus perfect to handle.
Size was WRONG AGAIN, I need more time to perfection my size calculation. I have to find a way for me to don't do this mistake again!

Overall I feel frustrated for the mistakes I have just wrote, wrong take, wrong size and wrong interpretation when price got against me. At least I have some points of improvement here, some points of reflection.
I will keep practicing Yoga as I am doing since almost a month now. It helps me a lot to don't panic when in a trade keeping my heart rate low and to don't hesitate that much for my entries when my setup shows up!
I am now using limit orders at my buy/selling area. This is improving a lot my fills and hesitation.
Looking fw for next ER season kicking in early/mid October.

09/26/19 (Later after the trading session)
I am really disappointed with my attitude toward the stop. Re-watching the recording I see and remember I was moving the stop up and down on the chart of my broker platform, changing mindset within a possible add and a stop up to break point above VWAP. My plan was to add, thus no complain if I have changed my mindset, what else could have I expected? I've paid the price today to have done it ruining a possible good trade!
Good lesson for me today!
BTW I didn't analyze up to now why I traded it. Actually my reports are more psychologically related then why I traded the stock, why long or why short! I give it for granted and I do not put it down :P
For as much as the financial results for this year have been positive, the results in Q3 this year are lower then those last year. Perhaps enough to unwind longs and let some seller kick in. The fade at the open has been consistent reaching ath level breaking down and testing almost the whole dollar @ 32.20. VWAP was @ 32.60, I have thus considered to short the half dollar retest. I have signed it as inflection point, point where price would have taken a sort of trend. The aim was to add to any eventual retest of important levels or stop it at vwap break point (I call them important cause is where consolidation take place. Price is gonna bounce from top to bottom several times. There I wanna take the right side at the right price. Sometimes consolidation does not take place though). The 32.20 has been a good point again later in the day to add to any eventual open position or perhaps enter a new trade. I do not have this attitude for the moment. I mean I trade basically up to 11:30/12 and not again for the afternoon session. I will get there once I will master sufficiently the first 2/3 hours for me perhaps to build a good cushion to trade on in the afternoon!


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-09-26 09:41:16 KBH sell $32.530 short
2019-09-26 09:44:52 KBH buy $32.360 short
2019-09-26 09:44:52 KBH buy $32.360 short
2019-09-26 09:44:52 KBH buy $32.360 short
2019-09-26 09:45:11 KBH buy $32.370 short
2019-09-26 09:47:57 KBH buy $32.220 short
2019-09-26 09:49:11 KBH buy $32.530 0


Comments

2019-09-27 07:12:04
 

Let me start by saying, I love your trade review set up!!! It looks like you may be an SMB follower. Consider adding the 7 fundamentals( well 5) of "One Good Trade" to these? Prep, hard work, patience, plan and discipline, communication and taping the trade.. This may help break down what exactly you should be frustrated with

Anyway, I followed this into earnings planning on trading after earnings. It just did not gap much and the volume PM was fairly light. So, ignored it, but it looks like the gap fade for the scalp was not a bad thesis. Although, for me, that is one of the hardest trades to make as it seems impossible to control risk if am wrong.

Keep up the good work!

2019-09-27 12:25:52
 

Thanks for the useful hints Cklamb I appreciate that!! I will start to include those fundamentals to scan deeper from where my frustration could come. And yes I definitely follow Spencer and Bella, I find their job unique, valuable and with no discussion a must!
Regarding this trade, there are no better trades then those you master, when it comes to difficulty more often our limits are not related to a lack of knowledge but to a missmatch with our personality that could lead to panic and confusion, imho.
Thanks again, all the best!!

2019-09-28 16:47:40
 

For example I had tons of difficulty to open a trade at breakout, once got a kind of consistency I have realized that I would never have excelled trading the ORB or any other trade at the break just cause it's not comfortable for me to trade at those levels, it goes against my personality/character. For this reason I have focused in the last months in trend continuations with starter at first/second pull back or level of consolidation. Here I feel way more relaxed to open a trade, any eventual loss here for me was worth to be taken. With the range breakouts I don't have the same considerations/feelings!

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