ATVI Trade on Oct 2, 2019 09:45 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Electronic Gaming & Multimedia

Activision Blizzard, Inc. develops and distributes content and services on video game consoles, personal computers (PC), and mobile devices. The company operates through three segments: Activision Publishing, Inc.; Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.; and King Digital Entertainment. It develops, publishes, and sells interactive software products and entertainment content for the console and PC platforms through retail and digital channels, including subscription, full-game, and in-game sales, as well as by licensing software to third-party or related-party companies; and offers downloadable content. The company also maintains a proprietary online gaming service, Battle.net.

Trade Scenario

Activision Blizzard (ATVI - Get Report) slipped on Wednesday after the shares received a downgrade by analysts at Bernstein, who wrote that investors are "paying too much for hope" surrounding expectations of recently released mobile versions of its "shooting" games.
Activision Blizzard stock was down 2.65%, or $1.40 a share, at $51.50 in premarket trading on Wednesday after Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger downgraded the company to underperform from market perform, noting his group "... cannot reconcile the current stock price with the company's risk-adjusted fundamentals."

Trade Variables

Symbol : ATVI
Gap : 2%
RVOL : 2.5
pmVOL : >50K
avg Vol: 7.32 M
Vol @ Day : 6.5 M
Float: 757 M
Short Float: 2.67%
pmPATTERN : Bear Flag, opened at the top of the pennant
Catalyst : Down-Grade

Technical Levels

Support: 51.20 50.30MultyDay VWAP) 49.60
Resistance: 52 53 53.50
Inflection: 51.2

Trade Plan

A consolidation and retest of 51.20 could imply a further move to next level of support and Multi Day VWAP!

Set-up : Down-Trend Continuation, 15 min Cons
Side : Short
Size : 50 (Half size -12.5$ it was wrong it had to be -20$ and 80 shares, eventual add if price action would have consolidate)
Entry : 50.99
Takes :
Exit : 51.24

Comments

Today by the premarket I had those stocks/scenario for me to trade. SPY going for a second record biggest red day by the same period last year.
New er season is kicking in by next week or so, thus now we are in the calm before the storm:

$LEN gaped up with ER beat at 52 Weeks High in pm, perfect scenario for me to be Neutral biased. A gap fade and/or an eventual continuation following the up trend could be a possible scenario.
ATVI got downgraded, not the best catalyst though people sold it enough to attract attentions.

As continuation day:

AMTD with a 25% drop by yesterday close,
ETFC with 15% drop, recovering some through the day,
SCHW with the idea it would have got to the 35.80sh
MKC aiming to the 169sh/171sh area in case some vol would have kicked in.

I have today for the first time recorder with my main screen in which I follow my trading process also my face and voice, talking out some of my thoughts.
I am thus writing following the recording and the considerations I have got from it.

I have prepared the day quite nicely preparing my trading plan sheet with all the significant level to follow and trade according to the trading scenario I would have encounter.
I was following at the open LEN cause I have got interested by the spike @ 57.40 This move gave me a bull bias wanted to find a price at first pull back. I have sat the order but have add a variable in my trade that is: price was not above pm high. Thus I have cancelled the order. By this I have basically a flat feeling. I really don't know if I have to trade below pm high regardless or I have to set it as a outside zone where not to trade. The trade would have given me around 60 cents per share, nothing really worth it but no other way for me to understand would be to trade the setup regardless pm high/low if the setup comes out! However a move occurred since my cancelled order.

I have then got my eyes on ATVI hoping in a pullback after the nice drop at the open. It occurred and at the moment I didn't realize that the price just bounced off the multi-day VWAP at 50.25, also psycho level around 50$ perhaps and technically a level that has been already chopped around by the end of August this year. Perhaps there have been more people interested in longing the bounce off of it rather then shorting against it.

My idea has been to short the first pullback. I have got in at a price that I have considered by the time I have traded a good one but watching back the recording I could have given it just some more seconds to develop. In the end price got easily above 51 thus I see no reason to go against it trying to get the highest whole dollar price.

A consideration is on the fact that I haven't been able to spot by the moment price got at VWAP any significant signal by the tape. Also a smooth price action didn't really encourage me to add to my position.

Following the price through the minutes it rejected vwap getting a side-way consolidation below VWAP.
Around 10:00:20 o'clock I have seen bigger then usual bids of 25*100 @ 50.87, @ 50.86 of 33*100 and again 20*100 @ 50.87 and a volume spike with no price reaction. By few seconds I have sat my stop at break-even. For me those 2 signals including the overall area price was sitting, gave me confidence to close the trade. I have had the right interpretation!

What I didn't like about this trade has been the fact I didn't interpreted well the catalyst behind it and the 50 area level of support for me to expect a better result then this.
My entry should have been just more rounded to include VWAP and the smooth move above 51.
My size again wrong :(:(:( !!!!

What I have liked?
I have interpreted few but good enough signals from the tape. I don't expect still to understand all what Level 2 offers thus when I spot some I take it as gold :P:D
I liked how I have interpreted the volume profile giving me a signal to get out of my trade.