UVXY Trade on Oct 3, 2019 09:58 from beno: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture
- SPY back in August 282-294 range
- Saudi Aramco attacks causing volatility in oil prices, production back by end of September
- China trade talks productive, China purchased agriculture products from US
- Fed easing and possibly introducing new QE program (called Open market operations)
- Formal inquiry launched for Trump impeachment (Cover-up, secret server, abuse of power)
- US released tentative plan to limit investment in China

Markets Intraday
- PM: Uptrend
- Morning: Uptrend until release of NMI (52.6 compared to expected 55.4), SPY tanked $3
- Morning 2: SPY retraced all gains lost from NMI number, from 285 back to 289
- Afternoon: SPY price peaked at 290 then down-trended back to 289
- End of Day: End of day buying pushing SPY back above 290

Technical Analysis – Long Term
- UVXY steadily increasing since mid September
- VIX in uptrend, lows and highs getting higher

Technical Analysis – Intraday
- Tuesday was release of PMI number, 47.2 compared to expected 50.2
- Today the NMI (non-manufacturing) number was released, 52.6 compared to expected 55.4

Catalysts / News
NMI released at 10am came in at 52.6 which was below analysts’ expectations of 55.4.

Original Plan
Buy UVXY before number releases with a market structure stop, then scalp according to catalyst.

Execution Notes
Bought 1 lot before the release of the number at 30.15 with a stop in hard stop near 29.95 for 1R of risk. After UVXY had spiked I wanted to sell but accidentally hit the wrong hotkey and added another lot at 31.21. Since I added unwanted risk I wanted to sell both lots right away, which I did, I sold one lot at 31.24 and the other at 31.26.

Review
Obviously I’m pleased that my trade worked but it could have gone the other way! When the news was release, UVXY spiked $1 almost instantly, so I wonder, if the number would have been positive, I think my stop would have definitely got skipped. So, the question really boils down to finding edge in predicting whether the number will be weak or strong compared to expectations. I think I will research the historical release and SPY reactions to these numbers to see if there’s an edge here! I’ll be giving myself a B for this trade as it could have gone the other way!

Grade Questions

Did I follow my plan? (yes/no/with mods): yes
Which modifications?:
What justified the modifications?:
Did you hold a core position until you noticed a reason to sell?: yes
Were your executions goods? yes

Grade: B
(1=D, 2=C, 3=B, 4=A)