NVDA Trade on Oct 7, 2019 09:38 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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MarcoG

 

Pull-back play above pm high!

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: >500 K
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Catalyst : Solid Fresh news / ER beats

Overall Picture

SPY has lost around 6% since ath to then close with +3.3% in last Friday trading session. In premarket today Monday price consolidated above the 100SMA crossed up just on Friday. It has been a nice re-bounce showing perhaps a certain strength. Thought the just broken 100SMA could act as a magnet for the price to retest it again during today's trading session.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the watchlist: FSLR, RNG, UBER, NVDA and as continuation I was keeping an eye on HPQ and SGH.

FSLR: The Trump administration dealt a fresh blow to renewable energy developers on Friday by stripping away an exemption the industry was counting on to weather the president’s tariffs on imported panels. The U.S. Trade Representative said Friday it was eliminating a loophole granted about four months ago for bifacial solar panels, which generate electricity on both sides. They’ll now be subject to the duties Trump announced on imported equipment in early 2018, currently at 25%. The change takes effect Oct. 28.
This is something you wanna keep your eyes on!! I was long biased in case a consolidation above 200SMA at 63sh and short in case price would have faded at the open pulling back perhaps retesting VWAP.

RNG: J.P. Morgan analyst Sterling Auty upgraded RingCentral to overweight from neutral and raised his 12-month price target to $225 from $143 following the company's announcement last week of its partnership with business-telecom hardware maker Avaya.
This is something I don't use to really rely on. I was neutral biased expecting anything from a bounce to an hard drop to a chop.

UBER: Uber shares were indicated higher in pre-market trading Monday after analysts at Citigroup boosted their rating on the stock to "buy", arguing the ride-sharing group's third quarter results could signal renewed revenue growth.
Same thing here I had not the best view on the catalyst

SGH and HPQ were kept mostly for studying purposes to backtest how second day plays react to certain market conditions and variables.

Play

NVDA

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

NVIDIA Corporation operates as a visual computing company worldwide. It operates in two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor. The GPU segment offers processors, which include GeForce for PC gaming and mainstream PCs.

Trade Scenario

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has scored multiple orders to make artificial intelligence processors for Nvidia (NVDA) and other firms, according a report Friday. TSM stock rose on the news.

Trade Variables

Symbol : NVDA
Gap : 1.51% (Not Reached the Requirement)
RVOL : 2.59
pmVOL :>100 K
avg Vol: 9 M
Vol @ Day : 4.5 M
Float: 584 M
Short Float: 1.75%
Institutional Ownership : 72%
ATR : 5.58
pmPATTERN : Bull Flag and consolidation at high of the flag
Catalyst : Fresh News

Technical Levels

Support: 181 176
Resistance: 185.30 188.37 193
Inflection: 185.3

Trade Plan

NVDA gaping up only 1.5% due to release of fresh news. Even though the gap was not that big the RVOL has supported the move. What could have helped is the fact that today there were not so many stocks to follow thus people might have got interested in NVDA! But I am not that sure about that :P

Set-up : Up-Trend Continuation on consolidation above pm high. Entering at the pullback
Side : Long
Size : 10 + 10
Entry : 186.21 186 (missed fill at 185.35 due to high spread? (0.11 at the moment, but my order was sat) Price got to 185.33 but I have got no fill.

Takes : At half and whole dollar, tried something different today. I use to set my targets at 1:5 2.5 4 5 6 pnl but today I have tried to
Exit : 185.55

Trade Analysis:

I was following the tape at very open on FSLR and a side eye on RNG but my eyes have spotted the move on NVDA. Thus I have centered on NVDA at 09:31:20 considering the nice push breaking pm high.

Intuit:

Cause:Chart Pattern in creation above pm high/ Nice impulse breaking 185.30 and rejecting the 187 closing at 0.66$ below the 187 but retraced a whole dollar creating with the coming minutes an area of consolidation above VWAP @ 186.
Effect: I have thus tried to get a fill at the base of the consolidation area @ 186 with the aim of adding in case of VWAP crack at 185.30sh area to then close at confirmed break of the 185.30 level.

Tape reading:

When price rejected 187 just few seconds before popped 2 orders bigger then the avg @ 186.97 and 187. Price nicely rejected the level. @ 186 same thing on the bid came bigger then avg orders. At 09:40 when in the trade the 186 has been sold this time with some consisten orders on the ask. Price has been touching the 185.35 level and bounced back trading @ 185.50 area to then break 186 2 minutes after. When 186 has been sold I have told myself that the trade could be a red one. For the rest of the trade I haven't been able to spot that much besides @ the break of 187 the little rejection was perhaps due to some accumulation on the ask of some above avg orders. I need to practice more to be able to spot more indications by the Level 2, considering that I don't even know if my considerations on what I read are right or wrong. So only watching it over and over again perhaps I will get more hints. It is really difficult..

Internalization:

I have first felt a bit frustrated to didn't spot the trade on the 186. After that I have realized that the setup was still there and that I could have got a good entry to trade simply just placing the order.

Orders:

Price failed again the 187 opening at 186.75 then below 186.50 and dropped just few cents to my order at 186. Pulled back at 186.20 and failed it again finally giving me a fill @ 186. Price dropped up to 185.55 and traded around 185.75sh area, I have in the mean while placed my order @ 185.35 that hasn't been filled. Big disappointment here.
First take was @ 186.92 to get the 187 level but I have lower it to the previous pivot marked at 186.725. I have consider the previous pivot an important level as well thus a good reason to lock in profits. Wrong to have changed my plan/order.
One more order was sat for the 187 at 186.93. Found a fill I have sat 2 more takes at 187.47 and 187.93 for the half and whole dollar move to the 188. It was all nice besides the fact that I have ended up being with no shares!! Having only 2 shares left I have added just to get a bigger position just to trade any eventual move. I mean perhaps with a risk of 250$ per trade (1% of my trading capital) I won't face this situation!

Comments:

NVDA was in the watch list due to the fresh news I have just reported in my trade plan. There was not the usual gap of 2.5% I trade. I have considered the news with the fact that there was not really so much around today, thus I've thought people are gonna focus on what is out there. And would be great guys to have your opinion on this! Thx in advance!
image

It sounds all silly to me to be in this kind of situation, it could be a signal for me to start focus on size, starting to raise progressively my 1 R (Risk) to get out of the comfort zone I am now. Pushing slowly on this and only one setup will (I hope) help me to get into a higher level of risk with no pain!
On November the first will be my first birthday as a day trader. Will be one year I am into the trading profession on a daily basis trading US stocks. I could celebrate my birthday trying perhaps to master a 50$ risk trade :D It will be also my birthday on the 18th of October. Thus a nice consolidation here hahahah :D:D:

What I did not like about the trade:
I din't like the takes perhaps too nervous at first. The lack of view and interpretation. Even if I had no shares I had a nice price. 186.10 was my price and with that I could have traded the 187 up to 11 o'clock. Lack of acknowledgment by the time of the trade but only after when reviewing. Too much involvement perhaps into locking profits missing the overall interpretation. Huge point of improvement for me here!!

What I have liked:
I liked that I have interpreted my trade up to my entry and add. I have set down my orders with no hesitation, calling those with my voice and explaining why I wanted to try to get filled over there.

Ruined another good trade but at least understood where I have to focus. No over excitement leading to a change of the original interpretation of the trade in every single order I place. Keeping the focus for longer time. Don't losing it after a while I am in.
Really happy that it all happend already by today thus tomorrow I have just the opportunity to behave differently by today's trading session.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-10-07 09:38:32 NVDA buy $186.000 long
2019-10-07 09:45:45 NVDA buy $186.210 long
2019-10-07 09:47:56 NVDA sell $186.700 long
2019-10-07 09:48:03 NVDA sell $186.930 long
2019-10-07 09:51:27 NVDA sell $187.470 long
2019-10-07 09:55:55 NVDA sell $187.930 long
2019-10-07 09:57:46 NVDA sell $188.020 long
2019-10-07 09:58:17 NVDA buy $188.010 long
2019-10-07 10:00:22 NVDA buy $187.620 long
2019-10-07 10:01:05 NVDA sell $187.530 long
2019-10-07 10:01:05 NVDA sell $187.530 0


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