AMBA Trade on Oct 8, 2019 09:30 from J_Matrix: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture:
- Stocks decline in broad-based retreat on exacerbated concerns about trade and growth
- U.S. placed 28 Chinese firms on its trade blacklist for their part in fostering human rights abuses against a Muslim minority in China; will impose some visa restrictions
- China denied violations and warned it could retaliate; still plans on proceeding calmly and is reportedly sincere in reaching a comprehensive deal
- Fed Chair Powell said the Fed intends on expanding its balance sheet but says it should not be mistaken as "QE"
- Weakness in the China-sensitive semiconductor stocks

Intraday Fundamentals:
-Ambarella, Inc. develops semiconductor processing solutions for video that enable high-definition (HD), video capture, analysis, sharing, and display worldwide. The company's system-on-a-chip designs integrated HD video processing, image processing, computer vision functionality, audio processing, and system functions onto a single chip for delivering video and image quality, differentiated functionality, and low power consumption. Its solutions enable the creation of video content for wearable cameras, automotive cameras, unmanned aerial vehicle cameras, and virtual reality cameras, as well as Internet Protocol security cameras for professional use and home security and monitoring. The company sells its solutions to original design manufacturers and original equipment manufacturers through its direct sales force and distributors.
-Hikvision is a company that is on the Trade Blacklist that US announced overnight. Hikvision is also the biggest customer of $AMBA. $AMBA's revenue is about to take a big hit.
-ATR 2.30
-Inst. Own 80%

Technical Analysis:
-$AMBA gapped down over 10% in the after hours on Oct 7th on the news closing just a tad above $50
-$AMBA continued to sell off pre-market under $50. At 818am, a kill candle formed from 50.15-49.41. Reaching a low of 48.70 before grinding back up on low volume trading just underneath the $50 price.
-Significant Resistance on the daily chart is 54 & 55 from Aug 29 where $AMBA had great ER and these were the price points where buyers stepped in.
-52 was the intraday resistance from after hours Oct 7 as that was the bounce point with volume from the initial sell off which eventually failed in the same time frame.
-From this I theorized that Longs were trapped at 52/54/55
-50 is a key support on the daily chart from Late July 2019 and early Aug.
-48.70 premarket low acts as immediate support. 51.50 premarket high acts as immediate resistance.
-Other daily chart support levels 47.50/46

Thesis:
1. If stock opens under 50, watch tape for lack of buying momentum and get short starter size risking 50+/-, look for opportunities to add to selling momentum on sell off retractments.
2. If stock pops and squeeze, anticipate it to run to premarket highs 51.50 and watch for momentum to turn and short starter size. Looking at 52 resistance.

Trade Management:
-930am Right at the open I waited a bit and the tape was steadily selling into the 49.50. I got short risking what I thought would be about 50c around 50.10 with starter size. 49.61 avg
-930am After the opening candle, even though it reached a high of 50, it quickly got stuffed and the candle closed 49.86. I was calm an confident about the opening candle as it closed under my risk area.
-931am The next candle opened flat, proceeded to sell and made a low to 49.63 before the tape stalled, within 3 seconds in one fell swoop the price popped making a high of 50.90 closing at 50.85.
-I didn't panic as I wanted to see if this candle was just a cover pop that would quickly reverse so I waited for the next candle to open.
-932am The next candle opened flat again at 50.85 and started to sell again hitting the 50.77 mark, then buyers stepped in again and started pushing right through the whole number of 51 and I stopped out as soon as I could.
-933am Remembering my thesis at the 52 price point, I got short again on tape selling momo avg 52.03 risk 52.25
-934am stopped out at a fast push up on market at got filled at 52.50
-934am Candle quickly reversed into selling momo so I tried again and got short 51.64. My primary thesis still in play.
-935am-936am Paid my self and got flat as selling momo stopped right at VWAP
-938am-943am Tried to re-short on the fade back up using the 52 thesis again but got stopped out.
-Took note of double top at 943am
-946am-947am Price breached 51.50/VWAP and unable to recover. I hammered it risking 51.50
-Paid my self as selling slowed down at 51, left some on to see how far it could take me.
-1003am I got flat as price reclaimed the 50EMA and held above it on a 1 minute pull back signaling a potential reversal.

Remarks:
-There is definitely a lesson to learn here. $AMBA is not a stock that I usually trade so I'm not familiar with how it was going to trade. In no way was I prepared for a $1/share minute candle rip. It was a lil later that I realized I missed out on a very important piece of fundamentals and that was the 31 million float. It was an extreme low floater and had I did better at prepping, I don't think I would have used the same starter size of 200 shares nor would I have only use about 30-50c risk.
-The opening short theory I think was very sound an intact and if given the same situation, I would take that trade over and over again at the open, I think if I had paid attention to the sizing and know the range of it's ability to squeeze per minute, I would have been a lot more composed.
-I was almost pushed to the point of panic on these opening pops.
-At 934am I think because of my incorrect sizing I did panic covered at 52.50 only to see it reverse and ruin my average re shorting it.
-Moving forward, how would I get better? 1. Note the float ALWAYS. 2. On tickers that I'm not familiar with trading, avoid putting in the first trade until after 3-5 minutes of the opening bell. Better to miss an unfamiliar trade and observe then to take an early rip and get put into an emotional roller coaster.