Big Picture
- SPY broke above 294 range during October 11th PM
- Trump reports US has come to a substantial phase one deal with China
- Formal inquiry launched for Trump impeachment (Cover-up, secret server, abuse of power)
- US released tentative plan to limit investment in China (most likely for more sway in trade talks)
- Fed extending its overnight funding Ops (QE) through January 2020
Markets Intraday
- PM: SPY Trend up from 295 to 296.50
- Morning: SPY Strong uptrend from 296 to 298
- Afternoon: SPY Failed at 298.70, bounced from 296 and ran back up to 298.50
- End of Day: Hard selling back to 296
Technical Analysis – Long Term
- Earlier uptrend this year because of growth story
- Sold from $170 to $99 last month due to competition entering the space
- Broke above the 110-consolidation area
Technical Analysis – Intraday
- Day1: bought all day on news compared to weak market
- Day2: Strong OD and massive failure back into yesterday’s range
- Today: Another $6 gap with morning selling, buyers stepped in at 119.50
Catalysts / News
- Macquarie upgraded PT to $130 / outperform, says user base could triple by 2021
- RBC Capital upgrades PT to $155 / outperform
- Held up well during recent market sell off
Original Plan
A morning dip into 121.50 (yesterdays high) is buyable, with a target is potentially 128 (50%)
Could gap fill to 133, if it still didn't break down to 121.50 before 11 and it holding higher nicely, long on a pullback (40%).
Could fill gap back to 150 (10%)
Execution Notes
Yesterday’s HOD failed to hold so I didn’t participate at that level. After retesting YHOD’s 121.50 level a second time I decided to enter a short position; got filled at 121.43 with a 2R stop at 121.80, I got stopped out 3 minutes later. ROKU was then holding above yesterdays high of 121.50 and above VWAP (I took this as VERY bullish since the market was trending up too). I got long for 1 lot at 121.99 with a stop a 3R stop at 121.39 and a target of 123 for half of my lot and 124 for the other half. I ended up selling my half lot at 122.73 as the 70-cent sellers were having a hard time lifting. I sold my other half at 123.37 (which coincidentally was near the swing high) as sellers were stepping and there was weakness on the tape.
Review
Positives: It’s a good feeling to take money out of stock that you screwed up on the day before. My first short was a failure but I longed it after I noticed a really good setup and turned the trade green.
Negatives: No negatives for this trade.
ROKU ended up making a pennant formation for the remainder of the day, the stock offered some opportunities to get participate from technical levels but I was really looking for a trend to emerge which never happened.
Grade Questions
Did I follow my plan? (yes/no/with mods): with mods
Which modifications?: didn’t buy the initial dip to 121.50
What justified the modifications?: weakness on the tape
Did you hold a core position until you noticed a reason to sell?: no, this was a Move2Move trade
Were your executions goods? yes
Grade: A
(1=D, 2=C, 3=B, 4=A)
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019-10-11 10:32:45 | ROKU | sell | $121.430 | short |
2019-10-11 10:35:22 | ROKU | buy | $121.780 | 0 |
2019-10-11 10:57:19 | ROKU | buy | $121.990 | long |
2019-10-11 11:09:01 | ROKU | sell | $122.730 | long |
2019-10-11 11:14:43 | ROKU | sell | $123.370 | 0 |
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