AAPL Trade on Oct 14, 2019 11:39 from J_Matrix: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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J_Matrix

 

Big Picture:
-Reduced participation expected due to Columbus Day: bond market closed (Expected lower volume, less conviction in market sentiment, sideways day)
-Some questions about amount of progress achieved by "phase one" deal with China

Intraday Fundamentals:
-$AAPL continues with buying sentiment from the News of Oct 4th announcing that they are increasing production of the iPhone 11 by 10% to meet with product demand.
-Analysts continue to chime in on buy ratings on Oct 10th and Oct 11th.
ATR 4.41
Premarket RVOL slight decline compared to Oct 11th and Oct 10th
Inst. Own 61.30%

Technical Analysis:
-$AAPL have clear signs of bullishness on Oct 10 from analysts upgrades closing strong keeping almost all of it's gains on the day.
-$AAPL continues to run on Oct 11th clearing all time highs of 233.50. More analysts chime in on upgrades.
-Oct. 11 $AAPL made a high of 237.64 topping out and started to pull back before the close. Closing at 236.21
Support 234/235/236
Resistance 237/237.65

Thesis:
-Shorting in front of a stock that is making all time highs on good catalyst is never a good idea. I wanted to see the buying start to exhaust it self before making a thesis to short.
-I missed the long side of the trade because I was trading 2 other tickers at the open, so I opted to let $AAPL go and wait for the top to form. With the overall Market Sentiment being indecisive due to low volume, questionable trade deals, and the fact that a real pull back has not set in from this $AAPL run yet, I anticipated some sort of a profit taking fade.
-Knowing the stock is still strong, I'm only looking for a fade back to yesterday's closing price and DON'T expect $AAPL to panic sell and lose major gains.

Trade management:
-From 10:42am, it was very apparent to me that $AAPL has shown signs of buyer's exhaustion. However, since this is a stock that has high relative strength on the day, I wanted to wait it out and confirm the trend changing.
-$AAPL was unable to reclaim 238 and made it's first L/L at 11:11am
-$AAPL form a distinct L/H at 237.90 at 11:20am
-I was really interested by 11:35am to see if the stock can remount the apparent 1 min chart down trend line.
-11:38am 1 minute candle failed with volume, I was watching the tape to see if it can reclaim 237.50 for added confirmation.
-11:39am Got short with 2 tiers with stops at 237.65 and 237.77 final stop.
-11:45am Stock missed VWAP target for 3 pennies and I didn't want to risk a potential cover reverse since it's such a bullish stock, I covered 1 tier.
-12:04pm $AAPL faded all the way to morning's highs 236.65 so I covered 1/2 tier
-12:15pm $AAPL reached my targeted price at YCL 236.21 so I flat out the position

Remarks:
-I felt the trade was executed well. All price points and targets met. I traded my plan.
-Could get bigger? Some could argue that there was a spot to add to momentum at 12:02pm. I don't see the R:R being there. If I add, I would have to risk 237.11+/- and morning's high at 236.65 is just below me. My fight for best price and execution needed to be spot on to add in that position.
-I feel like the overall market conditions really helped this trade because $AAPL had major relative strength. I don't think I would make this same trade if the overall market was in a bullish situation.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-10-14 11:39:05 AAPL sell $237.450 short
2019-10-14 11:45:20 AAPL buy $237.280 short
2019-10-14 12:04:00 AAPL buy $236.770 short
2019-10-14 12:15:04 AAPL buy $236.270 0


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