Big Picture
- SPY holding above 294
- China wants another round of trade talk’s before signing deal
- Tariffs will increase if deal isn’t signed
- Formal inquiry launched for Trump impeachment (Cover-up, secret server, abuse of power)
- US released tentative plan to limit investment in China (most likely for more sway in trade talks)
- Fed extending its overnight funding Ops (QE) through January 2020
- Only two companies missed estimates so far this earnings season – 87% beat
Markets Intraday
- PM: Very Choppy between 298 and 299
- Morning: Retest of PM low then uptrend to 299
- Afternoon: Selling from 299 to 298
- End of Day: Consolidation (overall inside day)
Technical Analysis – Long Term
- LT Uptrend
- Sold off hard from 170 on competition news
Technical Analysis – Intraday
- Consolidating higher the last few days
- Gapped up $4 on new catalyst news
Catalysts / News
- Macquarie upgraded PT to $130 / outperform, says user base could triple by 2021
- RBC Capital upgrades PT to $155 / outperform
- October 15th: Apple TV App now available on ROKU devices
Original Plan
Morning gap fill back to 133 is buyable (30%)
Could retest 131 support (30%)
Strong possibility that trend continues, buy shallow pullbacks (40%)
Execution Notes
After seeing the huge OD down the clear trade in the morning was a short. I got short when ROKU tested its consolidation high of 130.30, got filled at 130.17 for 1 lot with a 2R stop at 130.57. I took quick profits as markets were showing early signs of an inside day, covered half at 129.68, then accidentally added (hit wrong key) another half lot short at 129.09. Quickly remediated my mistake by covering both half lots at 129.31 then at 129.24.
Tried to long ROKU after it broke its days high, got long at 133.30 and stopped out at 133.98 for 2R’s of risk. Scratch trade now.
Review
I liked how I noticed morning weakness and changed my main thesis from long to short. I should really pay attention to what keys I’m about to press, these are rookie mistakes I’m making here…
Grade Questions
Did I follow my plan? (yes/no/with mods): with mods
Which modifications?: short during morning
What justified the modifications?: morning weakness
Did you hold a core position until you noticed a reason to sell?: yes
Were your executions goods? yes
Grade: B
(1=D, 2=C, 3=B, 4=A)
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019-10-16 09:56:16 | ROKU | sell | $130.170 | short |
2019-10-16 09:58:36 | ROKU | buy | $129.680 | short |
2019-10-16 10:00:19 | ROKU | sell | $129.090 | short |
2019-10-16 10:00:24 | ROKU | buy | $129.310 | short |
2019-10-16 10:00:49 | ROKU | buy | $129.240 | 0 |
2019-10-16 13:09:09 | ROKU | buy | $133.400 | long |
2019-10-16 13:11:37 | ROKU | sell | $132.980 | 0 |
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