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Oct 17, 2019 11:20


Multiple Tries SIM Second Day Play

Big Picture
- SPY holding above 294
- China wants another round of trade talk’s before signing deal
- Tariffs will increase if deal isn’t signed
- Formal inquiry launched for Trump impeachment (Cover-up, secret server, abuse of power)
- US released tentative plan to limit investment in China (most likely for more sway in trade talks)
- Fed extending its overnight funding Ops (QE) through January 2020
- Only two companies missed estimates so far this earnings season – 87% beat
- UK and EU strike new Brexit deal in last-ditch talks

Markets Intraday
- PM: SPY sold from 300 to 299.40
- Morning: SPY topped at 300.20 then proceeded to downtrend to 298.50
- Afternoon: Uptrend but not new high, inside day
- End of Day: selling into VWAP

Technical Analysis – Long Term
- LT Uptrend
- Respecting 200-day SMA and trading above it for the last 2.75 years

Technical Analysis – Intraday
- Day1: Gapped down and sold hard early morning
- Day1: Had huge up leg blowing past previous day high
- Day1: Hard selling in the afternoon but held at 81.50 and 81.70, closed green
- Today: Strong open, uptrend all day

Catalysts / News
- EPS came in at $0.84 (+12% yr/yr)
- Sales of Libre were up an impressive 68% to $496 mln
- FY19 EPS guidance range to $3.23-$3.25 from $3.21-$3.27, in line with the $3.24 consensus

Original Plan
I can see morning weakness testing 81.20 - 81.50 support zone, get long into this area.
Hold above 82.20 is bullish, targets in the 83s.

Execution Notes
Tried the trade twice when it sold at lunch time, lost 2R on both tries. Tried a third time with only 1 lot and current holding into the up swing; filled at 82.34 with ½ R stop at 81.24. Took half lot profits at the 82.75 swing high. Held my last half lot in hopes that it would bounce but it didn’t sold last half lot at 82.57 as I wasn’t feeling too good (health wise, couldn’t concentrate, major headache).

Missed many opportunities to get long earlier in this stock. I was afraid to trade and ended up paying by not taking risk in the trade early on.

Grade Questions

Did I follow my plan? (yes/no/with mods): yes
Which modifications?:
What justified the modifications?:
Did you hold a core position until you noticed a reason to sell?: yes
Were your executions goods? yes

Grade: B
(1=D, 2=C, 3=B, 4=A)

Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-10-17 11:20:48 ABT buy $82.500 long
2019-10-17 11:24:09 ABT sell $82.390 0
2019-10-17 11:28:16 ABT buy $82.430 long
2019-10-17 11:31:38 ABT sell $82.310 0
2019-10-17 11:40:29 ABT buy $82.340 long
2019-10-17 12:32:04 ABT sell $82.740 long
2019-10-17 12:34:24 ABT sell $82.800 long
2019-10-17 15:33:17 ABT sell $82.560 0

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