NFLX Trade on Oct 17, 2019 09:42 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

If I no longer want to miss any trade I'd better start to report those I do miss. To compile this report, for as much as it became faster with the time, I need time and energy. I daily go back to the review my session but I don't report if I don't trade. Going back to the recording of my session, charts review and psychological analysis it's something you would prefer report regarding something I have traded rather then something I haven't traded. One more reason to don't hesitate when my setup shows up. It's 2 days I have decided to raise my risk in order to avoid miss fills and also to start to get out by this comfort zone I am now laying since too long. It's 2 days I don't take a trade ergo my size affects my trading activity. It's clear I am there ready and set up but I don't push the mouse button. It is so frustrating! At the very beginning when I have started trading stocks was frustrating getting a red trade. Today I am fine with the red trades but I hate when I don't enter in a trade I have already prepared! NFLX was supposed to be my short today as well as UNH yesterday was my long of the day. I failed in prompt action and solidity. I have hesitated.

Consolidation & Pull-back play below pm major support level for a Gap Fade trade

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: >500 K
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership: Possibly above 100%
Catalyst : Solid Fresh news / ER beats

Overall Picture

SPY closed yesterday session at 298.40 after have closed the day before just at 298.88, 1$ from the session high. I see that as a good sign of strength. In pm price touched and rejected the 300 2 times to open the session at 299.66. A further move retesting the 300 could be a possible scenario. Once there price will need to consolidate in ordir to confirm the accumulation of buyers willing to long that price.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: IBM,MS and NFLX. I din't follow any other name at least at the open to be focused and don't miss any eventual opportunity caused by too many stocks to follow.

IBM: IBM shares were indicated sharply lower in pre-market trading Thursday after the group posted disappointing third quarter earnings in the first full update to include its $34 billion acquisition of Linux-maker Red Hat.
ER miss and such gap could be an interesting scenario to trade. Just a bit concerned by the name it self. Not a good trader based on my stats.. I did not find any tradable setup on IBM, thus I didn't trade it.

MS: Morgan Stanley (MS) today reported net revenues of $10.0 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2019 compared with $9.9 billion a year ago. Net income applicable to Morgan Stanley was $2.2 billion, or $1.27 per diluted share,1 compared with net income of $2.1 billion, or $1.17 per diluted share,1 for the same period a year ago.
James P. Gorman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “We delivered strong quarterly earnings despite the typical summer slowdown and volatile markets. Firm-wide revenues were over $10 billion for the third consecutive quarter, and we produced an ROE within our target range. Our consistent performance shows the stability of our business model. We remain committed to controlling our expenses and are well positioned to pursue our growth initiatives.
This sounds to me as really cool!! My favorite stock for today's trading session. Gap up, consolidation at the flag. Just 2 minutes before the open price got to pm high. At the end MS turned to be a short for the day fading below VWAP and retesting from below pm level of support at 44sh. I did not trade it.

Play

NFLX

Company Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Media - Diversified

Netflix, Inc. provides Internet entertainment services. The company operates in three segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming, and Domestic DVD. It offers TV series, documentaries, and feature films across various genres and languages. The company provides members the ability to receive streaming content through a host of Internet-connected screens, including TVs, digital video players, television set-top boxes, and mobile devices. It also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services. The company has approximately 139 million paid members in 190 countries. Netflix, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.

Trade Scenario

Netflix Inc. NFLX, +2.47% jumped as much as 8% immediately after earnings, thanks to better-than-expected profits and subscriber growth. However, the underlying reality is that the growth trend is leveling off for Netflix, and pressures are only going to rise.

Trade Variables

Symbol : NFLX
Gap : 5.75%
RVOL : 5
pmVOL : >1 M
avg Vol: 8.4 M
Vol @ Day : 38.4 M
Float: 431.22 M
Short Float: 5.19%
Institutional Ownership : 77.15%
ATR : 9.56
pmPATTERN : Bull Flag and consolidation at the flag. Fade below level of support just prior the open)
Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support: 302.66(Multiday VWAP) 288
Resistance: 319.50(100SMA)336(200SMA)
Inflection: 302.66(Multiday VWAP)

Trade Plan

NFLX had a nice gap up in pm that would attract the interest of traders. ER beats sound more then enough for me to keep an eye on it. The only detail here is that even with a gap and with er beat that would not be enough to release the pressure that lately is surrounding the name. A fade was something more then expected today.

Set-up : Up-Trend Continuation on consolidation above pm high entering at the pullback or short below MultiVWAP in case of pullback testing the price from below.
Side : Short
Size : 25 + 25
Entry : 302.66 first entry / 304 second entry for an avg price of 303.33
Takes :
Exit : 304.88/305

Trade Analysis:

I was following the tape but I have found really difficult to spot any indication. I have focus on trading the chart.

Intuit:

Price bounced off the 302.66 inflection point as expected and came all the way back to crack it.

Insight:

Once price crossed down the level I have tried to find an entry in case of a pull back testing 302.66 from below. My hesitation never let me enter the trade

Tape reading:

No particular indication, focused on chart technical and volume profile

Internalization:

I have felt as I report above MORE THEN FRUSTRATED. I have already explained my feelings above.

Orders:

302.66 and 303.33 but never entered. Just finding stupid excuses for me to don't trade it.

Comments:

Wrote those above.

(By the recordings of my screen/face/voice):
I have said many bad words today :P I have punched my desk and felt really pissed for the fact I didn't enter!

What I did not like about the trade:
Lack of action in entering the trade. I am still trying to understand what is leading me in doing this. I am not greedy at all, it's like I have no interest for money even if I would need some as everybody does. I trade for the passion of doing it but I have no job considering that I am behind the screens on an avg of 14 h per day.. I do not have a pnl on my screen if not just for the per share pnl. I have finally the opportunity to harvest some after all the job I have done in the last 14 months but there is something related perhaps to my past, education, culture that is blocking me in raising size and trade at the same way I would with less shares. It might be a process that takes time and discipline in raising slowly accordingly to your emotions. If I am stressed than is not tradable size. It's pathetic but it's true. My tradable size for the moment is even not 80$. I will work exclusively on this from today. Meditation pre open will be the first thing I will do. I already practice Yoga, Sport and much more but perhaps entering into myself prior the open will keep the focus on the setups, entries and takes leaving aside any paranoia, fear and external shit!!!

What I have liked:
The overall preparation, consideration and overview on the stock. I have spotted area of control and tried to trade accordingly.

Thanks god tomorrow will be a new day :D