MSFT Trade on Oct 24, 2019 09:40 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Consolidation & Pull-back play above pm high on ER Beats

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: >500 K
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Catalyst : Solid Fresh news / ER beats

Overall Picture

SPY closed yesterday's trading session touching 299.92 to close just 5 cents below. In pm tested and broke the 300 to open today @ 300.91. A consolidation here could imply a further move up, but I would not exclude a profit taking kind of scenario. Though if we support 300 we could keep going.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: TSLA, TWTR, PYPL,EBAY,MSFT and keeping an eye on AMAT,STM.

TSLA: Tesla posted adjusted third-quarter earnings of $1.86 per share against a consensus estimate of a 42 cent per-share loss on Wednesday afternoon. Sales of $6.3 billion missed the $6.34-billion Street estimate.Tesla reported $5.3 billion in cash on hand and positive free cash flow of $371 million. The automaker said its Shanghai Gigafactory is ahead of schedule, with trial production underway. Model Y production is expected to begin by summer 2020.
I have seen the bounce in after hours. It was a consisten gap up with TSLA, finally after soo long. I have followed the stock since the open and set down a selling order @ 297 but just late enough to don't find an entry. The action at the open has been quick and didn't give so much time to think and react, at least from my perception. Missed the entry I have then focused on another stock.

TWTR: TWTR reported third-quarter 2019 non-GAAP earnings of 17 cents per share that missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by three cents and down 19% year over year.
Revenues grew 9% year over year to $823.7 million that lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $876 million.
I was following TWTR for a fade below 30.82 that never occurred. The stock basically traded in a horizontal range to break down only at 14:38.

PYPL: PYPL delivered non-GAAP earnings of 61 cents per share in the third quarter of 2019, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9 cents and rose 5.2% on a year-over-year basis.However, the figure was down 29.1% sequentially. We note that the company bore the brunt of unrealized losses on strategic investments in MercadoLibre MELI and Uber Technologies UBER during the reported quarter which resulted in a negative impact of 15 cents per share against the contribution of 14 cents from the same investment portfolio in the previous quarter. Moreover, the year-over-year growth in the bottom line was hurt by this loss, excluding which EPS would have grown 31% to 76 cents. Net revenues of $4.378 billion increased 19% from the year-ago quarter and 1.7% sequentially. Further, the figure was ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.341 billion.
The stock didn't provide any kind af tradable action for the 30 minutes the market opened. Faded below 104.63 to reject it and provide a whole dollar short trade. I didn't trade it cause the setup formed was not on my favorite list.

EBAY: EBAY reported third-quarter 2019 non-GAAP earnings of 67 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2 cents. The reported figure also improved 19.6% year over year. Net revenues of $2.65 billion also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.64 billion. The top line was flat on a year-over-year basis (up 2% on an FX-neutral basis). The company witnessed strong performance by its Classifieds platform during the reported quarter. Further, eBay experienced strong momentum across its managed payments offerings, which processed over $500 million worth of payments during the third quarter. However, StubHub volume failed to exhibit year-over-year growth which affected eBay’s gross merchandise volume (GMV). eBay’s shares have plunged almost 8% in pre-market trading which can be blamed on the disappointing fourth-quarter guidance.
EBAY has been another stock that didn't really trace a trend intraday, just horizontal.
It is the pattern un to today in this er season. The horizontal pattern!
I have set down a short order @ 35.59 but the action just turned against me so I have not entered the trade.

Play

MSFT

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Software - Infrastructure

Microsoft Corporation develops, licenses, and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide.

Trade Scenario

Microsoft Corporation reported a first-quarter earnings beat Wednesday afternoon. Earnings came in at $1.38, beating estimates by 14 cents. Sales came in at $33.1 billion, beating estimates by $870 million. This is a 13.81% increase over sales of $29.084 billion the same period last year.

Trade Variables

Symbol : MSFT
Gap : 1.44%
RVOL : 1.5 (above 1 last 2 days)
pmVOL : >500 K
avg Vol: 23.80 M
Vol @ Day : 37 M
Float: 7.52 B
Short Float:
Institutional Ownership : 74.70%
Avg ATR : 2.62
ATR @ Day : 2.45
pmPATTERN : Nothing really I could identify in a pattern. An up trend continuation to open at high of the first up impulse.
Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support: S1 139 S2 138 S3 137.55
Resistance: R1 140 R2 141.50 R3 141.80
Inflection: 138

Trade Plan

MSFT released earning today giving solid results. A move and pull back on pm high could be an interesting point to initiate a trade!

Set-up : Up-Trend Continuation on consolidation above pm high. Entering at the pullback
Side : Long
Size : 90 + 90
Entry : 139.59 + 139.39

Takes :
Exit : 139.19

Trade Analysis:

MSFT popped out of other names I was following. After the missed entry on TSLA, MSFT bounced nicely to then pull back to my entry level. Reason why I ws keeping my eyes on it.

Intuit:

At the pullback I have immediately set down a buying order for me to find a fill around the 139.50sh area. Next entry 20cents below. I think here is were I have messed it up.

Tape reading:

I didn't have the opportunity to follow the tape at all due to the fact that I had on watch several names today.

Internalization:

I have got my signal and prepared already the order. Held for confirmation and sent the order.

Orders:

The stock opened fading the 139.50. I have considered that as point of control considering that it rejected it just last minutes prior the open. I have set down my order accordingly. The second entry perhaps could have found more space.

Comments:

Collecting my 3rd consecutive red trade. Is not something new, it occurred and it will as long as I will keep trading. I have internalized the loss and the strik I am now swimming in. It was a kind of expected. It will stop when the statistical repetition will occur and there I will be prompt to spot the best out of it! I have collected enough trades using this approach for me to define it an edging one. It won't stop to be so just cause of a series of negative results. What will count will be how I will stick to the plan and how I will move on after those negative results!
I should have given it more space? Sure yes but that would imply a further sell. As it occurred. Stocks besides NFLX since this ER season kicked in are not really trading as usual. They are doing it so often now that I am starting to include such weird price actions as usual. Reviewing my stats I actually perform better when not in a crowded day! Perhaps I should start to put aside the fomo of trading the busiest trading day of the year!

What I did not like about the trade:
I didn't like that I haven't been able to spot any hint for me to avoid this trade or perhaps to handle it differently! Too many names on the watch I ended up missing all of it. My second choices names ended up performing good but when I follow up too many names I risk to miss the entire scene!

What I have liked:
I liked that I have executed, regardless my size, my original plan.

Keeping going on till tomorrow, Friday not the best day of the week, but market can always surprise with some good moves!

11/15/2019
There hasn't been any new high market by the price thus the entry was literally out of the blue. TO NEVER REPEAT AGAIN. While looking at the big picture the pattern has been formed any way so a confirmation of having completely missed the point here. The pattern has been creating and shaping on a slower pace.