INTC Trade on Oct 25, 2019 09:39 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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MarcoG

 

Consolidation & Pull-back play above pm high on ER Beats!!

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: >500 K
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Catalyst : Solid Fresh news / ER beats


Overall Picture

SPY has been kissing the 300 the entire yesterday's trading session. Repeated the behavior in pm and finally got the the point since the open today. The strength showed in the last few days has been confirmed by today's pm and stability around 300 area.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the watchlist: ALB, AMD, ATVI, INTC

ALB: CHARLOTTE, N.C., Oct. 24, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Albemarle Corporation (ALB) announced today that it expects third quarter 2019 diluted earnings per share to be approximately $1.46 and adjusted earnings per share to be $1.53 on net income of approximately $155 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $254 million. The Lithium business performance was impacted by discrete items, which more than offset solid results from both the Bromine and Catalysts businesses.
The stock simply found a consolidation and revers move on the SSR level. It never provided a continuation, I have lost interest on it!

AMD: AMD didn't really have a fresh news supporting the move but was technically set down to perform in case of a break and consolidation above the 32.20sh area,. I have held on it and followed through the entire trading session and placed an order @ 32.25 at 10:33 o'clock once price broke the level and got to pull back. The low has been, at pullback, 32.30 thus I didn't find any fill to initiate a position.

ATVI "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare", the reboot of the widely popular first-person shooter game, will launch on Friday and is set to become another billion-dollar hit for publisher Activision Blizzard Inc.The game is a fresh take on the popular Modern Warfare sub series of the Call of Duty franchise that was initially launched in 2007 and has since become a rage among gamers. It lets gamers portray elite soldiers hunting down targets in different parts of the world.
It was not the best news behind the stock but still he setup was quiet bullish. I have kept it on watch for a move above 57 pm level of resistance. The move didn't occur thus I have left it aside at the open.

Play

INTC

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Intel Corporation offers computing, networking, data storage, and communication solutions worldwide.

Trade Scenario

On Thursday, Intel (INTC) stock rose 8% after-hours to $56.36. The company reported record third-quarter earnings and raised its fiscal guidance. Intel’s earnings beat the revenue estimate by $1.2 billion and the EPS estimate by $0.18. The company eased tensions about the impact of the US-China trade war on the data center market. Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose 1.7% after-hours above $200. Intel also admitted that its 14nm (nanometer) CPU (central processing unit) supply shortage will extend to the fourth quarter. As a result, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock rose 1.4% after-hours.

Trade Variables

Symbol : INTC
Gap : 9.38% at first to open with 4% gap up
RVOL : 3
pmVOL : >500 K
avg Vol: 19 M
Vol @ Day : 59.7 M
Float: 4.4 B
Short Float: 1.12%
Institutional Ownership : 68.80%
avg ATR : 1.13
ATR @ Day: 1.28
pmPATTERN : Huge bounce and consolidation at the mid of the formation. Really similar to RH traded at begin september.
Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support: S1 53.60 S2 52.43 S3 52.23

Resistance: R1 55.15 R2 55.50 R3 56.95
Inflection: 54.54

Trade Plan

INTC was set to provide a further move. A break and consolidation above the 55 could grant a continuation up wards.

Set-up : Up-Trend Continuation on consolidation above pm high. Entering at the pullback
Side : Long
Size : 100 + 100
Entry : 55
Takes :
Exit :

Trade Analysis:

I have been definitely attracted by the bounce and sequential pull back. My pattern, my preferred trading scenario, setup.

Intuit:

Nice bounce breaking entry level and pullback retesting it. Got my attention, I have set down my order and held for it to be filled.

Tape reading:

I didn't get any hint by the tape for me to assume on a further move in INTC. Surely we have been fatter on the bid with some spoofing on the ask but I didn't use that to determine my entry. Traded the chart and technical levels not considering the tape.

Internalization:

I think I have passed over the trading size issue I was facing at the beginning of this month. I am comfortable with the size, I basically repeat what I was doing before, At least this is what I perceive. I didn't feel any frustration or what so ever, accepted the missed fill and internalized it for a future adaptation and improve of my orders set up!

Orders:

Perhaps my order was again too tight to entry price. Pullback provided a 55.11 low traded price, again just 10 cents by my price. This is getting a main point to fix and change for the next coming days.

Comments:

I don't regret the losses if I am able to get filled for my wins. Perhaps my entry is way to far from the traded price and should be instead interpreted as limit trading area prior an exit in case of a break of such level. If price consolidate @ a higher price I have to get the awareness that we might have found a higher level of support. An entry still down at 55 today would have ment perhaps that price would have been more willing to trade lower. I will sit down on this and try to review all my entries in order to understand if my technical view on the chart/price was indeed too tight and didn't provide space to price to even develop a further move.

What I did not like about the trade:
I am still too much stick to a price rather then an area.

What I have liked:
I have set my order with no hesitation.

Finishing the worse week/month $ pnl related since start. If I analyze my R pnl I am still green with actually a nice result. My wins in October have been enough consistent to cover the losses for the last 3 trades but I am still reviewing over and over again my last trades to understand if the loss was caused by the fact I have raised my size. It is a strange coincidence but perhaps is something I have to pass through. I am closing the week quiet positive and propositive. I can't just wait for Monday to come to keep having an opportunity to beter read and interpretate the stocks I will select to trade!
Have a great weekend everyone!

10/27/19
Reviewing my weekly and overall performance I have perhaps got a point of improvement for me to avoid the losses I have experienced. I have noticed that perhaps increasing the size gave me a sort of fomo in getting in a the trade. While through the last 2 months the consolidation at entry price was a variable to take in consideration for me to decide within exiting or staying in adding shares, lately since I have increased size I no longer hold my add up to when I have found confirmation by a consolidation area.
I am happy to have spot this small but huge detail that could have improved my trading practice when sized up! I will keep it in mind for tomorrow's trading session.
First entry I would keep it on the levels I trace pm but in case price keeps going against me with no consolidation but just straight to next level of support/resistance I have to consider to close the trade.
This actually is one of the odd I have trading in 2 ranges of price. It might be the case in which price fills me at first entry but never get to the second entry, thus I end up having half size position for 2 or 3 profit takers resulting in a thin trade $ related. At the same time I have the opportunity to be in a trade just half size when against me. But if I keep adding regardless consolidation when price goes against me I will statistically collect full R red trades and 1/2 R green trades.
Consolidation has to be a variable to don't forget due to fomo or exaggerated will to trade!
Regarding the missed fills I have clearly to consider a wider area of possible entry price. I have repeated the mistake of setting my entry just at the exact price resistance/support was set. Not 1 cent above/below. I have been changing it if I couldn't eventually find a fill.
I have thus another point of focus for tomorrow's trading session: Wider price range in finding a fill according to ATR and price action. For instance giving 10 cents range on TSLA would mean nothing!
INTC on October the 25th is a clear example. I have set my order at 09:39, just last minute prior the pop. Great intuit but even if the consolidation bottom was at 55.25sh I have set my entry at 55!
Obviously there is something behind it. Size is the answer. I could have easily set a smaller order at the 55.25sh and add at the 55, cause at that point a retest of the 55 would have found support in bouncing off, by the consolidation above. AT least this is what I have noticed in the back testing of my strategy. That's why I tag it as Consolidation Range. I do not have to miss the point and trading what price wanna trade but not my personal wish! This is a basic rule for profitability!!
When you just trade one setup that mostly shows up in the first part of the trading day you don't want to miss the only opportunity you have to trade for the day. I understand that this may lead in getting fomo entries/trades. And with the fact of trading higher size results in a bomb!!
I will keep back my main attitude, the one I used to have up to when I have sized up. No consideration toward my size and toward my will! Trade what comes across, if does not confirm amen to that, I close it and spot any eventual new opportunity!

Have a nice Sunday everyone!


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-10-25 09:39:07 INTC buy $55.000 long
2019-10-25 09:39:07 INTC sell $55.000 0


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