NXPI Trade on Oct 29, 2019 09:39 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Pull-back play above pm high on ER Beats!!

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: > 1M
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership : Possibly > 100%
Catalyst : ER beats

Overall Picture

SPY traded all time high levels in yesterday's trading session consolidation within 303.1/303.7. Closed the session at 303.20 to just stay horizontal in after hours. In pm price at first faded below the 303sh level of support in pm consolidation to open @ an even 303. A certain strength is present to keep price trading at the open still above yesterday's open. A move retesting yesterday's ath could be a possible scenario. I wouldn't exclude a retest of the 303. There we would need to keep the level a breakdown could activate some more selling.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: PFE, SHOP, MRTX, NXPI

PFE: Pfizer Inc posted third-quarter profit well above analysts' estimates on higher sales of cancer drug Ibrance and arthritis medicine Xeljanz, encouraging the largest U.S. drugmaker to lift its earnings forecast for the year.
Shares of the company rose 3% before the opening bell on Tuesday as the results suggested that Chief Executive Officer Albert Bourla's efforts to slim down the sprawling drugmaker were paying off.
PFE was set to retest the 100SMA level @ 38.66. I was following it for a potencial move if consolidated above the 100SDMA. Price rejected the MA to never trade above it.

SHOP: Shopify earnings missed third-quarter analyst estimates on Tuesday as the company swung to a loss due to a one-time tax provision. The Shopify earnings news sent shares in the builder of e-commerce platforms down in early trading.Shopify (SHOP) reported a loss of 29 cents a share including a tax provision of $48.3 million tied to a capital gain. Revenue rose 45% to $390.6 million, the company said.
SHOP was in the watch list due to the volatility of the stock it slef. Even if the stock was not trading a possible price for me to enter I didn't exclude it could in few minutes get to trigger at pm low.

MRTX: An experimental drug from Mirati Therapeutics Inc that targets a specific genetic mutation significantly reduced tumor size in 40% of patients with advanced lung and colorectal cancer so far evaluated in a small, early-stage trial, researchers said on Monday. Investors have been keen to see how Mirati's data stacks up against results for a similar drug, AMG510, under development by Amgen Inc. Both target a mutated form of a gene known as KRAS that occurs in around 13% of non-small cell lung cancer cases, 3-5% of colorectal cancers and up to 2% of other solid tumor cancers.
Not the strongest news just cause a early-stage but enough for the stock to get a gap of 39% in pm. Stock opened the session @ 94.87. I was on it for a move to 100 and eventually above. The stock didn't pullback for 3 minutes getting to 100 as fast as the light. Rejected it and never found support for an up trend continuation.

Play

NXPI

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

NXP Semiconductors N.V., a semiconductor company, provides high performance mixed signal solutions for radio frequency (RF), analog, power management, interface, security, and digital processing products worldwide.

Trade Scenario

NXPI delivered third-quarter 2019 earnings of $2.42 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.93 and also increased 20.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Moreover, NXP Semiconductors’ quarterly revenues of $2.27 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.24 billion. However, on a year-over-year basis, the top line fell 7%. Improvement in Mobile revenues was a positive while decline in revenues in other major end markets was a dampener.

Trade Variables

Symbol : NXPI
Gap : 5.60%
RVOL : 3.27
pmVOL : >100 K
avg Vol: 9.02 M
Vol @ Day : 2.73 M
Float: 277 M
Short Float: 3.24%
Institutional Ownership : 82.18%
avg ATR : 3.04
ATR @ Day : 3.60
pmPATTERN : Bull Flag and consolidation within 52 weeks high and 115.55. Retested bottom of the flag (52WH @113.50) to open @ 114.50
Catalyst : Fresh News

Technical Levels

Support: S1 113.50 S2 112.50 S3 111
Resistance: R1 115.55 R2 116.94 R3 120
Inflection: 115.55

Trade Plan

NXPI gaping up 5.6% in pm held nicely the 52 weeks high level @ 113.50. This has been a nice scenario to be interested in. In addition the stock has released earning in pm beating expectations but not, imo in the brighter bigger financial picture. Though a move above inflection and pull back would be an opportunity to trade!

Set-up : Up-Trend Continuation on consolidation above pm high. Entering at the pullback
Side : Long
Size : 50 + 50
Entry : 116.50 (I couldn't add cause my add order was just at the 115.75 sigh sigh)
Takes :

Trade Analysis:

As it occurred yesterday and it often occurs the inverted head and shoulder can take at the right shoulder an atypical drawing. Reason why today I have held the position and didn't get a fill for the add. The stock was not that strong as we would have loved. But the catalyst behind it didn't really support buyers in stepping in. It has been a slow test and failure of 117.50 to then after a hour trade back at a low of 115.75. But just prior that dump to 115.75 I have decided to get out.

Intuit:

Got my interest in NXPI due to the nice bounce at the open trading hod @ 118.5. Even nicer was the pullback :P First consolidation level has been @116.50/117sh At that moment I have held for next sell impulse as I have traded also yesterday. It occurred and once there I didn't enter cause I wanted to se if price would have been able to trade back 116.50. In case of that I would have entered at the micro rejection. Price bounced off the 116 at 09:37 trading back 117. There I have placed my order at 116.5 for the formation of the right shoulder.

Tape reading:

I have noticed more activity at 117. After the fall @ 116 and bounce to 117 there is when I have noticed higher then avg orders on the ask. It was clearly a wall. Bears were having that price under control.
09:46 again once back at 117 a bigger offer popped up. For as much as accumulation was increasing on the ask the bid showed a 500 shares order that granted a further move testing the 117.50. On the orders book many orders above 10k shares started to follow creating a higher support second by second and order by order. At that moment I have been quiet positive on the overall trade but I was wrong. The 117.50 definitely rejected first, second and third time price got to trade it.

Internalization:

I was fine during the trade. I was conscious and aware. I was there and executed exactly what I have told my self prior trade open. At final stage when internalizing the entire idea I have overview the all scenario and didn't have any point of discrepancy. Even when deciding to break even I have considered to let the trade be alive if still in the trade range regardless the pnl. But I am being really honest and I have told my self to first backtest this practice for some trades prior changing your approach from night to day.
Thus I was aware of that and I am really happy about this. Even a trade like this can be a great point of improvement imo!

Orders:

I have to underline that again I haven't find a fill at first time price traded below my entry but well occurred the second time after few seconds.
Quiet satisfied about the way I am handling my orders lately. I am way faster then in the past and more practical with the keyboard when typing.
I have through the entire time of the trade my fingers on the "close entire position" hot key :D It's my way to fill safe I think :D
Today I din't set a break even order while I have stayed in the trade. Yesterday's report was just the exact same pattern and price action, and the reflection out of yesterday's trade brought me to adopt a different way to handle when in this kind of situations. Today I had the opportunity to apply it!

I have got some slippage when filling my Stop order

Comments:

I am really happy about this trade for the fact that is giving me the opportunity to see the big picture. 115.75 has been the lowest traded price after 1 minute already at the open and for 2 pull backs at 09:40 and 10:33. Price basically held wonderfully and here comes my question: Should I trade the pnl or should I trade the chart/orders flow regardless the fact that I will several times leave some money on the table and even get a loss? Locking up profits at fixed targets and sequential close to break even level implies that my trade basically would be fueled by profits. For instance I open a trade to discover that my entry it's just 30 cents above/below level of support resistance. Let's say that price gets to an extend that grants me 2 takes that reduce the position of a 66%. Price reverses and get to my entry price. I now close the trade break even to don't lose any profit. But what if: I leave 33% of my original size to just get and retest the level of support/resistance that is just 30 cents far from my entry to risk in the end a very humble size that could instead develop into a great profit in the end of the trade? The price is going against me cause I didn't get the best entry, this is the truth! And this truth will be everyday there. I can't pretend to get the best price every time, so I have to include this in my trade when I open it. There could be the eventuality that price will support/resist to a level that was not the one you have expected!

What I did not like about the trade:
I should have given a wider range to my add entry to be able to find a fill. With an avg price of 116.12 I would have been able to lock my first target at 1.5:1 33% position.

What I have liked:
I liked how I have traded today. I am happy of my improvements in relation to anxiety, fear, overall attitude, state of mind, emotions controlling and internalization.

Even if I haven't been able to make a dime out the er season just kicked in last week, I am still positive biased sitting tight and propositive for what will come for me to trade next days :)