AMRN
Intraday Fundamentals
• Key Amarin achievements since its last quarterly report include:
• Record total revenue: Reported total revenue of $112.4 million and $286.5 million for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, respectively, representing increases of 103% and 89%, respectively, over the corresponding periods of the prior year. The total revenue reported for the first nine months of 2019 exceeded the full-year results reported for 2018.
• Record prescriptions: Growth in net product revenue was supported by increased prescription levels of Vascepa® (icosapent ethyl) capsules. The increased prescription levels reflect both a higher number of Vascepa prescribers and an increase in the average prescriptions per prescriber.
• Preparing for anticipated label expansion: Assuming that, on or before the previously announced December 28, 2019 PDUFA date, Vascepa’s label will be expanded to reflect cardiovascular risk reduction as demonstrated in the REDUCE-IT® cardiovascular outcomes study, Amarin is taking broad steps to prepare for commercialization of Vascepa as the first therapy to address this important unmet medical need, including preparation for increased education of healthcare professionals and patients. Furthermore, to support FDA’s approval of Vascepa for this expanded indication, Amarin has prepared for, and looks forward to, the FDA’s advisory committee meeting scheduled for November 14, 2019.
• International regulatory activities on track: Amarin continues to target making its submission, before the end of 2019, seeking regulatory approval of Vascepa in Europe. Regulatory review of Vascepa in Canada continues to progress through Amarin’s commercial partner in Canada with approval anticipated near the end of 2019 (late 2019 or early 2020).
Prescription Growth
• Based on monthly compilations of data provided by third parties, Symphony Health and IQVIA, the estimated number of normalized total Vascepa prescriptions for the three months ended September 30, 2019 were approximately 865,000 and 787,000, respectively, compared to 458,000 and 417,000, respectively, in the three months ended September 30, 2018. These estimates reflect increases of 89% in the third quarter of 2019 over the same period of 2018.
• The increase in prescriptions occurred broadly across the United States with the fastest percentage growth reported to come from cardiologists and endocrinologists and with the largest overall volume growth coming from general practitioners as there are many more general practitioners than specialists in the United States. The growth came from areas supported by Amarin’s legacy sales representatives and from faster than expected productivity of new sales representatives added in early 2019. It is this increased productivity of new sales representatives, together with feedback from physicians, that convinced Amarin that the size of its sales force should be doubled from 400 sales representatives (the level at which the company has operated for most of 2019) to 800 sales representatives in preparation for the launch of Vascepa for cardiovascular risk reduction at the start of 2020, assuming FDA approval.
• Regulatory Schedule in the United States
• December 28, 2019 is the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date for action on Amarin’s supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) seeking approval of Vascepa as the first drug approved for cardiovascular risk reduction in the patient population studied in REDUCE-IT. An FDA advisory committee meeting pertaining to the sNDA for Vascepa is scheduled to be held on November 14, 2019 at the FDA’s offices in White Oak, Maryland. The FDA makes information available regarding this advisory meeting at
Hourly
Intra
Trading Strategy
• Long bias on this
• Look to work the gap fill at 17.50 and the 50% at 17.80
• If this hits 17.50 for a full gap fill expect it push into the 17.40 or 17.30 before taking this long
• If it bounces hard off 17.50 in a v shape manner, scalp into this and look for it to start trending after and pull back into 17.60ish
Reading the Tape
The tape was fairly easy to follow on this as you could see the sellers overhead all morning and the buyers underneath all afternoon
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2019-11-05 11:01:16 | AMRN | buy | $16.540 | long |
2019-11-05 11:01:21 | AMRN | sell | $16.550 | long |
2019-11-05 11:08:02 | AMRN | sell | $16.590 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:11:38 | AMRN | buy | $16.540 | long |
2019-11-05 11:12:06 | AMRN | sell | $16.536 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:21:24 | AMRN | buy | $16.434 | long |
2019-11-05 11:21:35 | AMRN | sell | $16.404 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:22:05 | AMRN | buy | $16.391 | long |
2019-11-05 11:22:40 | AMRN | sell | $16.375 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:22:51 | AMRN | buy | $16.405 | long |
2019-11-05 11:23:30 | AMRN | sell | $16.395 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:23:57 | AMRN | buy | $16.375 | long |
2019-11-05 11:24:15 | AMRN | sell | $16.380 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:25:20 | AMRN | buy | $16.421 | long |
2019-11-05 11:25:26 | AMRN | sell | $16.448 | long |
2019-11-05 11:29:12 | AMRN | sell | $16.620 | long |
2019-11-05 11:31:17 | AMRN | sell | $16.570 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:37:37 | AMRN | buy | $16.590 | long |
2019-11-05 11:37:38 | AMRN | buy | $16.590 | long |
2019-11-05 11:37:42 | AMRN | sell | $16.590 | long |
2019-11-05 11:37:44 | AMRN | sell | $16.584 | 0 |
2019-11-05 11:41:05 | AMRN | buy | $16.634 | long |
2019-11-05 11:41:09 | AMRN | sell | $16.635 | long |
2019-11-05 11:44:55 | AMRN | sell | $16.640 | 0 |
2019-11-05 12:02:38 | AMRN | buy | $16.540 | long |
2019-11-05 12:02:48 | AMRN | sell | $16.550 | long |
2019-11-05 12:04:54 | AMRN | sell | $16.570 | 0 |
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