BA Trade on Nov 5, 2019 10:22 from kerobo0000: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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kerobo0000

 

Daily Report Card: D
-morning prep: D
-market prep: D
-stock prep: C
-level of focus: A

Rationale:
-BA finally broke to the upside of the high volume price channel put in on earnings day 1 (10/23/19)
-during yesterday's session it traded into the zone but did not break above it until too late in the session
-BA was also breaking out of the ~336-350 range put in after earnings; 350 is an HTF technical level
-fresh news was chairman making positive remarks on CNBC

Trade Strategy:
-during premarket, price was gapping up much higher than prior day's close (PMH was 355.58) and the high volume price channel (348.90-350.70)
-plan was to get long on a bullish chart pattern (pullback to VWAP, hold above PM high)

How much risk should/did I take?
-appropriate, 1,256; 10% of NLV

Recap / Trade Management:
-Noticed a potential setup in BA when I switched the time frame on my watchlist to 5m charts
-was initially going to go short since BA just made a lower high and the market was overall weak
-almost shorted above VWAP (in anticipation of break), but I remembered that I just did that on BABA (and also tried shorting BYND) and it didn't work; today, some stocks had bullish intraday patterns while the market was weak (but positive) intraday
-the market or XLI did not support the up move in BA
-when price held above VWAP, I switched by bias back to long (my bias should have always been long)
-as BA traded sideways, I had my finger on the trigger waiting to add on 2 more tiers and entered them as soon as when BA popped & held above 357.50 (at 10:28, 9k shares traded between the bid/ask and sort've kicked off the upmove)
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What did I do well?
-notice price trading sideways, and realize that was the moment I needed in order to add more size
-scale out into the big green bar on elevated volume

How could I have traded this better?
-hold core longer once position is working, have to hold until first target or until I see resistance on the tape, chart or market

What did the tape look like during the most important moments intraday?
-at 10:11, the tape and order book began to slow as price pulled back to VWAP, price slowed but didn't actually touch VWAP until 10:12; price never printed below 356.10
-at 10:12, buyer is absorbing as trades are printed at the bid then the offer, then the buyers step up
-at 10:15 the tape is still slow and price holding above VWAP (after testing it), this is a spot where you can really scale and risk
-at 10:16, price couldn't trade below 356.12 (higher low)
-at 10:24, the bids stacked at 357.30 then the offers at 357.40 were lifted and buyers stepped up (area to get big as price only retraced to 357.26 after this)
-at 10:28, 9k order traded between the bid/ask as price was holding sideways above 357 (another area to get big)
-once I was in the trade, I scaled out into the upmove a bit too early; first scale out signal came as price traded into 360 (psy level, resistance on the tape, elevated volume)
-at 10:39, bids struggle to hold 360 multiple times, then saw prints in the 359.70s & 359.80s, and saw a little stacking on the offer, buying pattern dissipated and that was my reason to exit

Where could I have been responsibly bigger?
-when price bounced off VWAP then began to hold higher above 357 (price never got below 357.15), the buyers stacked at 357.30, that is where you get bigger (hit out of extra tiers if price dips lower than 357.15, ideally price doesn't get below 357.30, but it may with large underlyings....BA retraced down to 357.26 before continuing higher)

Gain/loss relative to expected gain/loss:
-~30%+ gain; exceeded expectations based on catch the move formula


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-11-05 10:22:59 NOV08 19 360 CALL buy $2.040 long
2019-11-05 10:29:21 NOV08 19 360 CALL buy $2.120 long
2019-11-05 10:30:12 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $2.300 long
2019-11-05 10:32:21 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $2.600 long
2019-11-05 10:33:03 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $2.700 long
2019-11-05 10:34:38 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $3.150 long
2019-11-05 10:37:11 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $3.050 long
2019-11-05 10:39:16 NOV08 19 360 CALL sell $2.920 0
2019-11-05 10:58:58 NOV08 19 362.5 CALL buy $1.780 long
2019-11-05 11:02:04 NOV08 19 362.5 CALL sell $1.600 0


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