WMT Trade on Nov 14, 2019 10:31 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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MarcoG

 

Consolidation & Pull-back play below point of control on ER Beats!!

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: > 1M
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Long Term Chart : Possible Pocket or trend already defined.
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership : Possibly > 100%
History of Gap Follower: Neutral
History of former runner: YES
Major ETF movement and strength: Trending
Catalyst : ER beats


Overall Picture

SPY traded in range last 2 days rejecting the high of 39.52 several times. Some accumulation could perhaps occur leading the stock testing back 308.50sh /308sh / 207.50sh, 207 and so on. Any of the level could show where the strength to support an upper move is. SPY is going to open today's session at pm low.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: WB and WMT. As continuation day I had SDC and ROK in case some good volumes would kick in!

WB: Weibo (WB) reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings Thursday, while revenue just missed for the Chinese social media operator. The Weibo earnings report came before the market open. Weibo stock sold off. The Chinese social media company reported adjusted earnings of 77 cents per share on revenue of $467.8 million. Wall Street expected Weibo earnings of 73 cents on revenue of $468 million. Weibo stock tumbled 8.7% during premarket action on the stock market today. The increase was mainly attributable to the revenues derived from the live streaming business acquired in the fourth quarter of 2018. Costs and expenses for the third quarter of 2019 totaled $295.2 million, compared to $298.2 million for the same period last year.
WB was on my list for the earnings release and for the nice 74% of Short Float. The release has been with a mixed result if I din't interpretate it wrong. The 100 SMA was just 1 point by the pm low. Once price broke at the open the level I have tried to get an entry below it and missed it by few cents at 09:33 o'clock, The move didn't occur thought or better saying that resolved in the first selling wave thus I assume that the interpretation on the ER perhaps has been correct as well as the high percentage of short float could imply a buying wave.

ROK: ROK was on play as continuation play considering price held 194.75 in yesterday's pm gaining 5 points intraday and closing the session at 208. Relatively strong I have decided to play it in case above 201.21, yesterday high. It didn't occur. Let's say the stock didn't rock hahahha

SDC: Second day play SDC got my interest for hits proximity to 52 Weeks Low. There could have been 1 point move down to SSR @ 7.75. 8.75 52 Weeks Low level has never been touched and I have avoided further setups on the stock cause was not liquid enough.

Play

WMT

Company Description

Sector: Services
Industry: Discount, Variety Stores

Walmart Inc. engages in the retail and wholesale operations in various formats worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, hypermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, discount stores, drugstores, and convenience stores; membership-only warehouse clubs; e-commerce Websites, such as walmart.com, jet.com, shoes.com, and samsclub.com; and mobile commerce applications.

Trade Scenario

**Company reports Q3 FY20 GAAP EPS of $1.15 and Adjusted EPS of $1.16, led by strength at Walmart U.S., Walmart raises expectations for fiscal 2020 EPS

Trade Variables

Symbol : WMT
Gap : 3.8
RVOL : 4.4 by the end of the day: 3.8 by the moment of the trade
pmVOL : > 500 K
avg Vol: 5 M
Vol @ Day : 22.4 M by the close
Float: 224 M
Short Float: 1.15%
Institutional Ownership : 30.32%
avg ATR : 1.5
History of former runner: Yes
History of Gap Follower: No
Long Term Chart : The stock has been trading in All Time High area with 5 points range or so since end September. In yesterday's session the stock broke previous ath to trade the 121.36 and close @ 120.98. Today's pm session broke above marking a new high at 125.63.
Major ETF: XLP has been trading in range day up to 11:09

pmPATTERN : Bull flag, retested the high once more price dropped 2.3% taking back almost 2% prior the open. The stock opened at 124.60

Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support: S1 123.09 S2 122(Updated @ 122.63, pm pivot low) S3 120.92 S4 120.98 S5 118.66
Resistance: R1 125.69
Inflection: 123.09

Trade Plan

Walmart on ER beat is on my watch actually for mainly a fade. The stock does not have an history of gap follower. Still I am neutral biased.

Set-up : Down-Trend Continuation after broke and pullback to inflection.
Side : Short
Size : 90 + 45 + 45
Entry : 122.95 / 122.63 /
Takes :
Exit: 123.47

Trade Analysis:

I have waited for the price to confirm trading below point of control. It was needed for me to confirm the gap fill thus a down intraday trend continuation. Price consolidated @ 123sh area to finally break and test from below the level at 10:24

Intuit:

Once my set up was ready, the 123 was broken I have placed my order giving it a range of 5 cents.
After when in the trade and have added to my position I have lost the focus setting a break even order that was not necessaire. I didn't realize it when I was in the trade or better saying I didn't remember that I have already sat myself the rule of no break even if technically I was still in play!

Tape reading:

At 10:29 when price finally traded low of the day some accumulation occurred on the bid and a 17K order popped up @ 122.70. It was enough for the price to mark an outside bar on the 1 min and reverse trading an high of 123.18.
Price broke down once again the 123 and @122.89 bigger order popped on the bid with the same consolidation. We were gaining support there making a lower low and a new high @ 123.20. Price dropped hardly after the micro up trend move breaking 122..80sh consolidation area and getting to 122.50

Internalization:

I have internalized the regain at 10:31 and stayed in the trade letting it do his thing. My idea was still valid thus I let it run.
I have missed the point then after once added. My idea was still valid thus had to keep running as well as I did the first time.

Orders:

I had no hesitation in setting my orders once the setup occurred. I am happy of my entry and even about my add. Perhaps yes I had to hold a little while considering that the stock was trading bouncing over and over again so that I could spot a better price for my add.

Comments:

Naturally the disappointment to have placed that breakeven order is big but telling the truth it's great that it occurred. Definitely will be a scenario that will occur again and again and again thus I will have then the opportunity to do the right thing. Let it run until the idea is valid! It is so true that indeed price went just 3 cents above my exit price. Disappointed but still positive. Today I was feeling way different than any other day. The points of improvement I have set down since my last 2 trades are important and kinda structural thus applying those I feel a different approach when looking at the charts and making my considerations. As long as I have an answer for what occurred I think I am still improving even if I didn't achieve a green trade or green trades in a while.

What I did not like about the trade:
I didn't like the b/e stop, definitely unnecessary thing here! I didn't like that it didn't come back to my mind to control where I was and where price could have fluctuate still validating my idea!

What I have liked:
I think it was a good trade even if it ended break even. I had a good view on the big picture and no hesitation in catching the opportunity given to me. I have liked that didn't pass more then a hour and I had already realized the main point of focus and improvement as I state just before. Having other traders around and sharing with them your moves will only give yourself the opportunity to grow! They might suggest, remind, and let you keep the focus!

Some good names for us to trade in tomorrow's trading session, looking forward to that!


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-11-14 10:31:44 WMT sell $122.950 short
2019-11-14 10:41:47 WMT sell $122.630 short
2019-11-14 10:43:01 WMT buy $122.843 0


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