BA Trade on Nov 15, 2019 09:33 from kerobo0000: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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kerobo0000

 

Daily Report Card: C
-morning prep: D
-market prep: B
-stock prep: A
-level of focus: B

Rationale:
-11/11 BA released a statement saying they were targeting FAA certification of the flight control software this quarter, and Max deliveries could resume in Dec and return to commercial service is expected in Jan
-the plan to return to commercial service is 30days delayed based on recent reports, but the market received the news well as BA soared from the news release all the way into the close
-stock has been consolidating sideways under Day 1 resistance (368.55) and the day 1 high (369.75) over the last three sessions
-based on the way the stock traded 11/14, 368.55 is an important level that must be broken for continued upside

Trade Strategy:
-BA was gapping up in the premarket above both the Day 1 high and Day 1 resistance
-plan was to enter on pullbacks to day 1 high (assuming the tape provided evidence the 369.75/370 prices would hold)

How much risk should/did I take?
-2,230 (17% of NLV)
-appropriate level of risk given I put one lot on at my level of interest and the tape continued to confirm my bias, so it made sense to scale up more
-make steps to work on a mechanical plan for scaling in

Recap / Trade Management:
-on the open it was clear that around 370 was a key over/under level, BA tested above 370 and below 370 (down to 369.46) before continuing higher
-every time price dipped below 369.75, it snapped back up (and did so without large bids or a wall of buyers)
-entered into 1 lot as price held 370, after it tested lower
-noticed price action curling up on the 1min chart and saw some buyers stacking at 370.14, .16, .17 and that was when I entered 4 additional lots; my executions were sloppy as I tried to enter a limit order but then hit the hotkey b/c I didn't want to miss my entry
-price was moving higher and the tape was speeding up as my order was executed
-as I entered, news of BA Jan 450 call sweep came in on the squawk which gave me the confidence to look for a move higher
-as soon as call sweep alert came in, that was moment the trade became a momentum trade (recognize this to get heavier, but also to exit position faster)
-note how price reacted when price got near the 373.27 daily level; this could be an important area to get long against if more positive news re: 737 max comes out or if the market has continued strong

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What did I do well?
-managed risk by entering 1 lot given the 4.30 option price at time of entry, only added more size when long bias continued to be confirmed
-giving most of my attention to BA at the open given it was the only symbol that was near a level of interest

How could I have traded this better?
-do a better job, scaling out the majority of size as BA approached the 373.27, next daily level; I was expecting a much stronger test of that level
-staying focused after exiting the first trade, price traded back to the Day 1 high and presented a great opportunity to re-enter the trade
-only need to re-enter if price is right back at level of interest, I'm not advanced enough to buy dips yet

What did the tape look like during the most important moments intraday?
-the tape seemed a bit slow on the open after the first 1m candle as price tried to probe below 370
-at 9:33/34, saw some bids stacking in the 370.13-17 range and that was the confirmation to add size

Where could I have been responsibly bigger?
-right at 9:33/34 when price began to curl higher and the tape began to speed up, the preceding 1m candles have very small bodies wicks to the downside tipped me off to the fact lower prices were rejected

Gain/loss relative to expected gain/loss:
-$284 / +12.7% on the first trade; gain smaller than anticipated as I was late to take of the last 3 lots, panic sold the last 2 lots as price pulled back
- -$78 / -8% on the last trade


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-11-15 09:33:54 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL buy $4.300 long
2019-11-15 09:34:34 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL buy $4.500 long
2019-11-15 09:35:37 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL sell $5.400 long
2019-11-15 09:35:52 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL sell $5.350 long
2019-11-15 09:39:02 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL sell $4.980 long
2019-11-15 09:39:29 NOV22 19 372.5 CALL sell $4.750 0
2019-11-15 09:43:06 NOV22 19 375 CALL buy $4.450 long
2019-11-15 09:44:49 NOV22 19 375 CALL sell $4.160 long
2019-11-15 09:44:57 NOV22 19 375 CALL sell $4.000 0


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