PLAN Trade on Nov 21, 2019 09:44 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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Consolidation Squeeze play below pm low on ER beats!!

Requirements:

RVOL: Possibly >1.5
pmVOL: Possibly >50 K
avg Vol: > 1M
Vol @ Day : > 1 M
Gap: If possible but not strictly needed
Long Term Chart : Possible Pocket, trend already defined and strength.
Float: > 20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership : Possibly > 100%
History of Gap Follower: Neutral
History of former runner: Possibly YES
Major ETF movement and strength: Possibly Trending with strength


Overall Picture

SPY closed yesterday's trading session gaining back the from the big drop that led to lose 0.72%. Closed the session on 310.77 lost all of it in after hours to retest by 40 cents low of the day. In pm a certain strength kicked off leading the price to make 2 new high levels. Rejected and got to open basically @ yesterday's closing price. We are clearly slowing down after the nice up trend that led the SPY perhaps to start a new bull market. Still we are holding at highs and seeing price opening still @ 311sh let me think that we might have found real strength in the market for it to keep running.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: M, BJ, CPRT and PLAN. As continuation I was keeping an eye on TGT, PDD, KSS. As trade idea I had JWN on er today for a bounce off the 100SMA @ 32.39

M: M reported third-quarter earnings of 7 cents per share on Thursday. This is a 74.07% decrease over earnings of 27 cents per share from the same period last year.
The company reported quarterly sales of $5.173 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $5.32 billion by 2.76%. This is a 4.27% decrease over sales of $5.404 billion the same period last year.

M with ER miss lost my interest due to the fact that regained in pm almost all what lost. I have left it aside cause none of my setups could be applied on that action.

BJ: BJ said earnings for the three months ending on November 2 came in at 41 cents per share, up 5.1% from the same period last year and a penny ahead of the Street consensus forecast. Group revenues, BJ said, were largely flat to last year at $3.23 billion and came in just of analysts'- estimates of a $3.33 billion tally. Same store sales that don't include gasoline sales rose 1.5% from last year, BJ said, compared to forecasts of a 2% gain. Looking into the final months of its fiscal year, BJ said it sees earnings in the range of $1.44 to $1.48 per share, a two cent improvement at the lower end, but a two cent trim at the higher end, and pegged 2019 sales at the lower end of its prior forecast of $12.9 billion.
BJ was on watch due to the gap in pm and the solid catalyst supporting the stock. ER has been above expectation but with a lower result then last year. This led the stock to drop hard in pm but the above expectation result could imply a gap down going high! I have missed the point here and being short biased below 22.2. That was a completely wrong interpretation of the catalyst.

CPRT: Estimates: Wall Street sees Copart earnings per share rising 26% to 59 cents as revenue grows 15% to $531 million, according to Zacks Investment Research. Results: Copart earnings rose 38% to 65 cents a share, with revenue climbing 20% to $554.42 million. That ends two quarters of accelerating Copart earnings and sales growth, but not by much.
CPRT with er beats was on watch for a long above pm high @ 90.50 . I was worried by the pm action. Marked a big rejection to all time high @ 86.79 got back to drop point to open consolidated just below the pm high. Found strength finally got to cross my entry. I held for price to pull back and it did it nicely. I was still willing to enter even if the pull back ended to fade but what let me lose interest was the last shoulder formed that has been completely below the consolidation found @ 90/90.78 area.

Play

PLAN

Company Description

Sector: Technology
Industry: Software-Infrastructure

Anaplan, Inc. provides a cloud-based connected planning platform. Its platform unites traditionally distinct or disconnected database structures, including relational, columnar, and online analytical processing with in-memory data storage and calculation that is used in various lines of business, such as finance, sales, supply chain, marketing, human resources, and operations. The company delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service model. It operates in the United States, Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Anaplan, Inc. has an alliance with Ernst & Young LLP to enable organizations deploy connected planning platform for business transformation. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Trade Scenario

**Third Quarter Subscription Revenue up 47% Year-Over-Year. Remaining Performance Obligation of $590 million, up 55% Year-Over-Year. Dollar-Based Net Expansion of 123%

Trade Variables

Symbol : PLAN
Gap : 14.80% to open at 12% up gap
RVOL : 3
pmVOL : 400 K
avg Vol: 2.3 M
Vol @ Day : 9 M at the close
Float: 131 M
Short Float: 11.5%
Institutional Ownership : 73.78%
avg ATR : 2.1
History of former runner: Neutral
History of Gap Follower: Neutral
Long Term Chart : PLAN has been stuck within majors MA's since September. Today in pm broke 100SMA and Multiday VWAP giving me the look on trying to get to all time high, perhaps not that high but anyway an uptrend continuation
Major ETF movement and strength: XLK got to lose in yesterday's session as most of the mjor etf's. Retested yesterday's close in pm opened basically in the mid between close and low of the day. Even if lost the same pace got in the last days we are still holding on a bullish trend.
pmPATTERN : Bull flag with consolidation to open at bottom of the flag. Not really liked the candles made in pm. Big chop with no sense candles. Just last hour of pm got some sort of human kind candlestick.
Catalyst : ER Beats

Technical Levels

Support:
S1 54.47
S2 54
S3 53
Resistance:
R1 55.35
R1 56.40
R2 57.87
R3 60.36 (all time high)
Inflection: 56.40 / 54.47

Trade Plan

PLAN has good er and a good price action to provide an up trend continuation if we would get above pm high. Price dropped at the open confirming a certain weakness.

Set-up : Gap fade and down-Trend Continuation below inflection. Entering at the pullback
Side : Short
Size : 77 + 77 + 77
Entry : 54.49
Takes :
Exit: 55.14

Trade Analysis:

Opened @ 55 price gave after few minutes a good indication on the action. Broke S3 @ 54.47 price indicated the .47 has a bear point of control. I have decided to enter oce a new low was set breaking 54.

Intuit:

I have realized that the action was not going to be my biased one.I have adapted accordingly at try to get a good entry. As well when I have exited the trade I have clearly asked me several times to check over and over levels and trade plan prior executing.

Tape reading:

I haven't really being able to get any hint by reading the tape. Just the move in my favor at 09:47 gave a constant order flow on the ask taking out supports and confirming with orders. Each level has been taken as text book following the tape. Price pulled back again at my entry price once that had become already resistance.

Internalization:

I have adapted on the action discarding my original plan and I have accepted that my idea once again would have not bring me any profits. I have closed it cause the idea was not valid.

Orders:

I have set an hard stop even if I was at 09:53. If price would have traded back above my entry that would have implied a different action that the one I had planned in my gap fade trade.

Comments:

I have followed the market and tried to get any good opportunity bu today has been I think a bit flat. On PLAN I could have shorted the break of the 54.49 at 11:58 but I had an entry in case it would have pulled back. I had definitely to enter at the break of the level.

What I did not like about the trade:
I have missed other opportunities through the day. I have to focus on those and manage my setups with no hesitation

What I have liked:
My overall attitude and serenity while trading.

I have got good traders surrounding me in my every day trading activity, I have support and points of reflections and I appreciate that!


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-11-21 09:44:30 PLAN sell $54.490 short
2019-11-21 09:53:41 PLAN buy $54.610 0


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