NVDA Trade on Nov 25, 2019 09:35 from kerobo0000: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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kerobo0000

 

Daily Report Card: A-
-morning prep: B
-market prep: A
-stock prep: A
-level of focus: A

Rationale:
-Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight & lifts Price target to 259 from 217
-this name has been on my 2nd day play watchlist since it released earnings (closed at the lows on day 1, but reversed and closed at the highs near the top of consolidation area put in from its last ratings upgrade - on 11/4 - on Day 2
-NVDA hasn't been able to close and hold above 211.07 level until this upgrade caused the stock to gap up this am

Trade Strategy:
-enter 2 tiers on a hold / retest of the PMH (stock was already gapping up above 211.07 and intraday level of 214.55 so there was little support close to lean on)
-NVDA was also gapping up above +1 ATR from the close, so I had difficulty setting targets and felt the stock was already up too much on the open; so break and hold of PMH was my only high conviction entry

How much risk should/did I take?
-428; 3.5% of NLV

Recap / Trade Management:
-tried to enter at 9:34 when price traded down to 217.5 (PMH) before closing higher but I could not get filled and it began to feel like I was chasing the stock as it moved on momentum during an opening drive, so I cancelled order and waited for the retest of PMH
-had a really good entry for my first tier at the midpoint on the retest of PMH as price, tried to enter another tier 20-30seconds later at the midpoint but price began to shoot higher and the bid jumped up everytime I tried to enter at a higher price (have to take this as a clue that I need to pay the offer and there is likely demand for the option meaning prices should continue to go up)
-as price held PMH, there was 4.5k share bidder @ 217.42 that held / was never tagged before it disappeared and price continued higher
-was able to enter second tier on the restest of 218; price dipped to 217.85 for a second before getting back above 218; price couldn't hold more than a spread below 218, then bidders stacked at 218.94; entered this at the midpoint using hotkey and it filled immediately (i thought I bought the ask)
-NOTE: I actually thought 218.35 was more important level to be long above for continued upside; 218.35 is the earnings A/H high but given had a fresh news catalyst, the hold of PMH was still a valid entry
-took 1 tier off as price broke thru the offers at 219 (~11k shares)
-price retested 219, but couldn't get below 219.15, before continuing higher
-panic sold last tier after price couldn't could 219.50; I admittedly was trading P&L as i'm coming off 3 consecutive losing days, so in the back of my mind I really wanted to lock in gains while not really having any logical exit areas given we gapped above +1 ATR and NVDA was at all time highs; note how steep price action on 5m chart was during time of entry, so it would be hard to let a trendline guide my exit decisions

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What did I do well?
-cancel chase order and wait for a proper retest
-prepare to trade this name; given i've seen how NVDA trades on Day 1 after receiving analyst upgrade
-first scale out was right after size on the offer at 219 was taken out

How could I have traded this better?
-understanding that day 1 move can cause stock to move more than +1 ATR; need to be thinking +1.5-2 ATRs which will better enable me to set targets

What did the tape look like during the most important moments intraday?
-on retest of PMH, saw 4.5k order on this bids at 217.42 (217.50 was PMH); saw bids stacking as buyers stepped up when price was moving away from PMH
-price retested 218.50 and a couple bids stacked at 218.59 before buyers stepped up to 218.60 and there was 10k size there that I dont believe was tagged

Where could I have been responsibly bigger?
-on the hold of PMH, that really felt like the only place to be bigger

Gain/loss relative to expected gain/loss:
-gain lower than expectations; should have grossed at least $142 based on catch the move formula


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-11-25 09:35:37 NOV29 19 220 CALL buy $2.050 long
2019-11-25 09:37:34 NOV29 19 220 CALL buy $2.230 long
2019-11-25 09:39:37 NOV29 19 220 CALL sell $2.600 long
2019-11-25 09:42:26 NOV29 19 220 CALL sell $2.700 0


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