APA Trade on Dec 3, 2019 09:51 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Pull-back play below yesterday's low / 52 Weeks Low with Fresh News, Continuation Play!!

Requirements:

Gap : >2.5%
RVOL : >1.5
pmVOL : >50 K
avg Vol: > 1M
Vol @ Day : >500 K
Long Term Chart : Possible Pocket or trend already defined.
Float: >20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership : Possibly > 100%
History of Gap Follower: Neutral
History of former runner: YES
Major ETF movement and strength: Trending
Catalyst : Fresh News

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Overall Picture

SPY in a overbought situation yesterday traded lower fading off the fresh all time high level marked in pm. In today's pm session SPY dropped hard breaking the 310sh level of support. Price pulled back several time rejecting any attempt of making new highs. Everything reminds me a bit like last year in December but the overall market condition is different by last year. A further down continuation could be a possible scenario for today's trading session

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist only names with broad market moves: MU, AMD, BURL, NVDA. TWLO, COUP TGT and APA were in background. I didn't have on my main watch APA due to the fact that is an energy stock and a continuation play, I was just following it in case none of the main names would have provided me an entry.

MU: Was on the list due to the proximity to 45.04 level of support. Price broke support at the open to start pulling back, I was ready to short it in case the action at pull back would have confirmed a down trend continuation. It didn't occur while the stock turned trading higher. At that moment I was non supported by a clear trend on the SPY thus I have decided to don't chase it

AMD: AMD as per the entire watch list was short biased. Realized then I was completely wrong on the interpretation of the day. I selected it for the nice pocket of 1 point or so down to next level of support @ 36.25. Some think as per MU, AMD followed the overall market recovering action. Price formed a nice bull flag with the opportunity to enter at pull back but next level of resistance @ 38.15 was by then too close, price indeed faded before tracing new highs. I didn't chase the move.

BURL: Was on watch for a fade even if the stock as been quite strong. I have seen a continuation lower on the SPY that led me to make a fade trade plan on BURL considering the nice pocket free of resistance to where buying impulse started @ 209sh. The stock traded in a bounded range the entire session.

NVDA: NVDA was on watch for a possible downtrend continuation for a move potentially of more the 3 points. What happened is that by the time I have prepared the trade on NVDA in pm and the time market opened, NVDA lost already 3 points. 200.50 was my level of support that has been respected and deep bought by many producing a move of 6 points. I am a bit disappointed cause I do not have a deep buy setup in my trading practice. Days such as today perhaps remind you of it letting you reflect on develop such practice. The stock ended up being a great long offering also several points to enter but as per the other stocks not having clear where SPY wanted to go I didn't want to just jump in the trade

Play (Missed Fill)

APA

Company Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Specialty Retail

Apache Corporation, an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company has operations in onshore assets located in the Permian and Midcontinent/Gulf Coast onshore regions; and offshore assets situated in the Gulf of Mexico region. It also holds onshore assets in Egypt's Western desert; and offshore assets in the North Sea region, including the United Kingdom. In addition, the company has an offshore exploration program in Suriname. As of December 31, 2018, it had total estimated proved reserves of 581 million barrels of crude oil, 234 million barrels of NGLs, and 2.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Apache Corporation was founded in 1954 and is based in Houston, Texas.

Trade Scenario

**Apache Corp. tumbled after the company’s update on a closely watched exploratory oil well off the coast of Suriname offered little indication as to whether it will be commercially viable.Tests were carried out on the Maka-1 well after it reached a depth of about 6,200 meters (20,300 feet), the Houston-based company said Monday. After those tests are completed, the company will resume drilling in mid-December “to evaluate a third play type” at a new target depth of about 6,900 meters. But going for a third zone could indicate that the first two were unsuccessful, said Leo Mariani, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets. “There’s no color,” he said of the update. “Typically we’d have something like, ‘We found oil’ or ‘We found gas.’ It was just incredibly thin.”

Trade Variables

Symbol: APA
Gap: Down 1.59%
RVOL: 1.80
pmVOL: 75 K
avg Vol: 5.70 M
Vol @ Day: 11 M
Float: 374 M
Short Float: 8.39%
Institutional Ownership: 102.26%
avg ATR: 1.7
History of former runner: No
History of Gap Follower: n/a
Long Term Chart: The stock with a down gap and further down continuation lost more then 3 points within 3 days due to the news released yesterday reaching 52 weeks low level. Price is sat nicely for a further downtrend.
Major ETF movement and strength: XLE is in a long period consolidation now since almost a year or so. Trading in range losing slowly field under the feet. The hit received by the market overall would imply a further down trend.
pmPATTERN: Price got th mark a new high @ 19.81 but rejected it 2 times to slowly fading getting @ 19sh. Few cents below there is the 52 Weeks Low level
Catalyst: Fresh News, Continuation Play

Technical Levels

Support:

S1 19.15
S2 18.93
S3 18.67

S4 17.59(SSR)

S5 16.52

Resistance:

R1 19.55
R2 19.81
R3 20.42

Inflection: 18.93

Trade Plan

APA I am interested in APA in case price would break and pull back to 18.93 52 weeks low. I would then try to find an entry

Set-up: Continuation Play with Down-Trend Continuation entering at pull back to inflection.
Side: Short
Size: 170 / 170 / 170
Entry: 18.90 (Missed fill)
Takes:
Exit:

Trade Overview:

Analysis:

1) Within all the stocks I had on my watch list APA was the only one that granted a "Trend Trend Play" The stock has been hit hard in the last trading session confirm an overall weakness in supporting a bounce off the 52 weeks low. Perhaps with a market that could support with an overall strength the stock could even bounce off a low with buyers stepping in but APA today pulled by the negative news plus the SPY was set to crack

2) I have got my interest on the stock once crossed the 52 weeks low. I have thus held and set my order 3 cents below 18.93 level of low @ 18.90.
3) Price got to 18.89 to never fill my order..

Tape reading:

3) I was still not following the tape on APA

Orders:

I have given to my entry a range of 3 cents. Surely it's too tight considering that I have missed it by 1 cent. I have given it a little range but it has been too little. Perhaps a rounded 5 cents range on a stock with 1.10 ATR is more then acceptable. My stops are basically set to 30.77% of the ATR.

Intuit:

I have followed so many stocks today and there was fomo in the air!! I have set my order on the only stock I could and had the checks aligned for an A+ trade. I have thought to lower my entry few cents below the original level and I have thought the 3 cents would have been enough.

Internalization:

I had time to internalize the action, my entry and a possible exit! "Fortunately" none of my stocks sat for me to spot a good trade thus I have focused on APA

Comments:

I am not disappointed by have missed the long on NVDA or AMD, I never trade in this way, I never trade with no catalyst supporting and today was already a great exception to my rules. I might well trading technical beta trades but at least of my plan matches with the action. If not I try to spot then another stock. SPY today was from my pm analysis not going to pull back. Surely I had to adapt but by then I had no confirmations that price would have kept trading higher. If we would have been trading just few days ago SPY would have confirmed trending higher cause already in a trend thus giving support to any long idea. Perhaps still my limit in adapting but I appreciate my patience and determination on APA. Big big pity for the missed fill for just 1 cent :(

What I did not like about the trade:
I didn't like that I have missed again and again and again and again and again a trade!

What I have liked:
I have liked that I have set my order as soon as I have got my confirmation and didn't anticipate it ruining it all.

Additional Comments if any: I have followed during market hours SHOP. I have got the will to long it at pull back too 100 SMA in case it would have crossed it. I have followed the action but never traded it. I think I have to definitely believe in my self if I don't want to end up closing the shop! Nice game of words but huge point of reflection for me!! I have to trade based on my knowledge and my instinct, they have to get together. I really want to write different reports. I want to talk about how I have managed the trade and not how I have missed it and all the 1000 reasons behind it!!
Thx God it's only Tuesday and only the beginning of the month! Come on I have now one more month for me to improve all what analyzed in November. No repetition of the same mistakes is the first goal.