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Cklamb

 

DG

Dec 5, 2019 15:05


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Short Momentum

DG
Intraday Fundamentals
• Dollar General Corp. shares (DG) rose 5.7% in premarket trade Thursday, after the discount retailer beat estimates for its fiscal third quarter and raised its full-year guidance. The company said it had net income of $365.6 million , or $ 1.42 a share, in its fiscal third quarter to Nov. 1 , up from $334.1 million , or $1.26 a share, in the year-earlier period. Sales rose 8.9% to $7.0 billion from $6.4 billion . The FactSet consensus was for EPS of $1.38 and sales of $6.9 billion . "The quarter was highlighted by our best customer traffic and same-store sales increases in nearly five years, as well as double-digit growth in both operating profit and diluted EPS," Chief Executive Todd Vasos said in a statement. The company raised its fiscal 2019 guidance and now sees sales growth in the low 8% range, compared with prior guidance of about 8%. It expects adjusted EPS to range from $6.55 to $6.65 , up from prior guidance of $6.45 to $ 6.60 . The company expects to open 975 new stores in the year, remodel another 1,000 and relocate 100 stores. In fiscal 2020, it expects to open 1,000 new stores, remodel 1,500 and relocate 80. Shares have gained 42% in 2019, while the S&P500 has gained 24%.
Technicals
ADV 1.71 m RVOL 2.09 ATR 2.57 BETA .5 Short 1.25% Inst Own 94.50%

Daily

Hourly

Intraday

Trading Strategy
• Overall long bias on the day and the report
• PM action is pointing towards a smaller gap and enough momentum to fill after the opening
• Look for a hold long at 156 or 155.75 would be better if this does flush there at the opening
• 157 is a good scalp long and may be workable for a couple of points
• Let it set the opening range and play the side of the break
• VWAP tests and SMA momentum plays of keys level intraday
Reading the Tape
At one point it is not luck. I wish I could say what I see when I see it. But, I am seeing the momentum and the stalls, large orders and depth. I am using ToS to try to get in on my side of the spread and it works a good portion of the time. While other times, I can see how my market order throws things out of sync for a few seconds.
Trade Management

Review Notes
• My overall Bias was wrong on this I did expect this to push higher earlier and break down
• I was able to stay on the side of the momentum most of the day.
• I still see many area when I can let some of these trades run a bit longer.
• I did take a couple of drop outs. So, I was off on the risk management today
• I was on tilt at least once today.
• I did manage to get some sizing up in today.


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2019-12-05 15:05:21 DG sell $155.089 short
2019-12-05 15:06:09 DG buy $155.063 short
2019-12-05 15:07:19 DG buy $154.995 0
2019-12-05 15:10:21 DG sell $155.059 short
2019-12-05 15:11:09 DG buy $155.100 0
2019-12-05 15:15:12 DG sell $155.449 short
2019-12-05 15:15:21 DG buy $155.336 short
2019-12-05 15:15:48 DG buy $155.417 0
2019-12-05 15:22:57 DG sell $155.205 short
2019-12-05 15:23:03 DG buy $155.180 short
2019-12-05 15:23:13 DG buy $155.238 0
2019-12-05 15:24:30 DG sell $155.183 short
2019-12-05 15:24:44 DG buy $155.198 0
2019-12-05 15:25:44 DG sell $155.207 short
2019-12-05 15:25:57 DG buy $155.191 0
2019-12-05 15:26:42 DG sell $155.200 short
2019-12-05 15:27:32 DG buy $155.246 0
2019-12-05 15:29:24 DG sell $155.295 short
2019-12-05 15:29:35 DG buy $155.358 0
2019-12-05 15:34:53 DG sell $155.685 short
2019-12-05 15:35:19 DG buy $155.694 0
2019-12-05 15:38:40 DG sell $155.651 short
2019-12-05 15:38:58 DG buy $155.640 short
2019-12-05 15:39:02 DG buy $155.610 0
2019-12-05 15:39:38 DG sell $155.574 short
2019-12-05 15:39:49 DG buy $155.598 0
2019-12-05 15:41:42 DG sell $155.460 short
2019-12-05 15:42:27 DG buy $155.447 short
2019-12-05 15:42:41 DG buy $155.460 0
2019-12-05 15:43:45 DG sell $155.484 short
2019-12-05 15:43:56 DG buy $155.449 short
2019-12-05 15:44:44 DG buy $155.400 0
2019-12-05 15:45:38 DG sell $155.419 short
2019-12-05 15:46:20 DG buy $155.246 short
2019-12-05 15:46:36 DG buy $155.438 0
2019-12-05 15:47:44 DG sell $155.246 short
2019-12-05 15:47:56 DG buy $155.170 short
2019-12-05 15:49:08 DG buy $155.087 0


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