TSLA Trade on Dec 11, 2019 09:41 from MarcoG: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Consolidation Squeeze play above pm high on Consolidated Macro Trend and Strength!!

Requirements:

RVOL: Possibly >1.5
pmVOL: Possibly >50 K
avg Vol: > 1M
Vol @ Day : > 1 M
Gap: If possible but not strictly needed
Long Term Chart : Possible Pocket, trend already defined and strength.
Float: > 20 M
Short Float: Possibly >40%
Institutional Ownership : Possibly > 100%
History of Gap Follower: Neutral
History of former runner: Possibly YES
Major ETF movement and strength: Possibly Trending with strength

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Overall Picture

SPY on December the 2nd marked all time high level to drop back @ 309sh level of support. Found support at level took is way back gaining all what lost in the 2.70% drop. Got 3 days ago to retest all time high @ 315sh, price just corrected in last 2 trading sessions to find support on the 313. In today's pm session price just got to trade yesterday's high and opened at 314.43. We are still conserving a certain strength here. We might see an up trend continuation for today's session.

Today's Watchlist

Today I had on the wachtlist: CHWY, AEO and OLLI as fresh catalyst names. I had CONN as a second day play, SHOP and TSLA as beta names, PDD and EXPE as trading idea, considering the nice trend continuation lasting now already since a week or so

CHWY: The pet-products retailer Chewy saw its shares rise 5.5% on Tuesday after disclosing its third-quarter earnings after the close of trading on Monday.
The results were mixed, and investors have seemed unsure of how to interpret them. The stock plunged 4.4% early Tuesday morning, but later bounced back to register notable gains.
CHWY was on watch due to the earnings release, the 5% gap and all the checks needed for me to select a trend trend trade, such as pm volume above 50 K, relative volume above 1.5, avg vol > 1M, avg ATR > 0.48$, float > 35 M. If short float is above 40% and inst. ownership above 100% is a plus that will let me consider a bigger size. The stock just prior the open resolved the move I wanted to trade in pm getting to open @ 27 or so, just less then 1 point from main target @ 100SMA. I have decided to no longer trade it.

AEO: American Eagle Outfitters Inc. shares sank 8.4% in Wednesday premarket trading after the retailer gave weak fourth-quarter guidance. For the third quarter, American Eagle reported net income of $80.8 million, or 48 cents per share, compared with $85.5 million, or 48 cents per share last year, and matched the FactSet consensus. Revenue was $1.07 billion, up from $1.00 billion last year and ahead of the $1.06 billion FactSet outlook. Same-store sales growth of 5% beat the 3.4% growth FactSet forecast.
I was following AEO due to the ER miss. The stock didn't follow a down terend continuation while started trading higher breaking first level of resistance. I left it aside to pick a trend trend trade.

OLLI: Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.39 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.32 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 5.13%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this retailer would post earnings of $0.46 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.35, delivering a surprise of -23.91%.
OLLI was on watch due to the ER with a mixed result. I was neutral biased on the stock to eventually short if price would have faded below 100SMA or long in case price would have traded above pm high. The stock opened the session just at 100SMA and provided a good buying impulse. At break and pull back at pm high I was already trading TSLA and I have decided to don't open 2 positions at the same time, it might be too soon for me to do that!!

CONN: CONN was on play in yesterday's session due to the earnings release. It was the only stock from yesterday's session that could still provide a trend continuation. The move occurred in 3 minutes and the stock didn't really keep going, instead it turned back up. I have lost my interest on it. Though I have to remark the fact of having set down an order @ 13.45 but then cancelled. I would have got a fill but not a continuation by the trade filling only my first taker @ 13.21

EXPE: I have selected EXPE cause actually I am following it since already 1 week now. The stock since ER kept a nice up trend continuation. And even if I haven't been able o spot a good entry point through the entire week I am following it the stock was still trading higher highs. Today just corrected and didn't provide me a proper enter. I have left it aside.

PDD: I am following PDD for the same reason I have been following EXPE. The down gap marked with ER could be filled considering that buyers stepped in having the opportunity to buy a stock that has been wildly sold off but not with a real negative reason for that. I am happy even if I haven't been able to spot a good entry on it that my idea was correct!. PDD actually provided me a really good entry but I didn't really feel like trading it.

SHOP: SHOP was on the list as a beta name. I have loved the action through the entire last week and I have thought to start keeping at least one beta name on watch for each trading session. Today the action on SHOP didn't provide a possible entry according to my methodology.

Play

TSLA

Company Description

Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Industry: Auto Manufacturers

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, Netherlands, Norway, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage.

Trade Scenario

TSLA is definitely back to trade the prices we were used to, recovering from the big slap got till June this year. Price doubled by then and the pull back occurred during the last 2 weeks or so showed a relevant strength that manifested in yesterday's session in a 10 points move, its entire ATR. A further up trend continuation is a possible scenario for today's trading session.

Trade Variables

Symbol: TSLA
Gap: 0.85%
RVOL: < 1 (oh oh)
pmVOL: 87.8 K
avg Vol: 8.7 M
Vol @ Day: 5.5 M
Float: 142 M
Short Float: 22.70%
Institutional Ownership: 62.93%
avg ATR: 10
History of former runner: Yes
History of Gap Follower: Yes
Long Term Chart: The stock is just going to test previous high pivot @ 361.20. From 350 till 357 there is a nice pocket with no particular and relevant level of resistance
Major ETF movement and strength: XLY still not marked a new high despite the notable strength market is presenting us lately. Basically trading in a bounded range since October this year.
pmPATTERN: Textbook Bull Flag. Buying impulse with a descending bullish wedge. Just 1 min prior the open price retraced to fill 50% of the previous buying impulse.
Catalyst: No catalyst, just technical.

Technical Levels

Support:

S1 350.54
S2 348.63
S3 344.45

S4 339.53
S5 335.08

Resistance:

R1 353.76(pm High)
R2 354.8
R3 358.06
R4 360.84
R5 362.63

Inflection: 353.79

Trade Plan

TSLA was the most interesting stock I had under my watch for today's trading session. The only one with OLLI that provided an up trend continuation with a no stress trade. Once priced a good buying impulse I have found easy to enter the trade. A pattern I have already traded in the past for instance my last trade on BBY.

Set-up: Up-Trend Continuation entering at pull back to inflection.
Side: Long
Size: 50 (Entered with 50 shares not as a starter position, but due to a mistake. I am during last days below the PDT thus I have 3 executions per week for me. I can no longer split the risk in 3 entries as I used to do. I have forgot it once entered my shares size and realized it only once in the trade. I ended up risking 50$ out of the original 150$)
Entry: 353.800 / add @ 356.37(has been a typo, I wanted to sell there cause first of all I couldn't use more then 1 execution on this trade to have the opportunity to trade tomorrow and also cause I have stated in my last reports that those adds have to change waiting for a 5 / 15 minutes candle to test levels of support and resistance. At that time of the day and with already a move occurring I have to add only on 5/15 min candles support/resistance. I had some issues cause of the renewal of my cards and could no top up my broker account and for just 9$ I was below the PDT. 24992$ lol. I could not make any transfer I had to adapt accordingly. I have btw made the transfer and by tomorrow should be in!
Takes: 355.26 / 356.250 / 357.25(missed by 1 cent) / 358.25(price never traded that level)
Exit: 354.26

Trade Overview:

Analysis:

1) I have noticed the beautiful buying impulse marked in the first 10 minutes by the open. Price got to micro pull back (micro 1min pull back is what I actually look for in this pattern. If the pullback would have been bigger my entry would also have been then at the bottom of the pulling move. In this case I feel fine to enter at that level instead of waiting for the pull back to complete. If price had to reject usually it does it at the first candle of the pull. I have thus entered the trade with no hesitation.
2) I admit I was struggling the first 10 seconds I was in. I had a feeling I didn't have since long. Paralyzed and accelerated hearth rate. Indeed it's 1 week I do not meditate. Got immediately the answer today. I have thus clearly and loudly said to my self: WAKE UP AND TAKE ACTION. NOW!!! I have to say that it worked, hearth rate came to normal and I had finally the full overview and control of my trade

3) Sat down my takers I have just waited holding tight with patience
4) Got to fill 2 out of my 4 takers price got just 1 cent below my 3rd one. 357 was an important level of resistance, I was aware that my taker 0.25$ above resistance could be hardly filled. Perhaps I should have lowered it accordingly to the technical situation here.

5) Rejecting the 357 I wanted to keep the nice gain I had by the moment. Still more then a third of my position was on the table with 3 points in my favor. This is the reason why @ 356.37 I wanted to lock in some, but I did a mistake with my order buying a stop limit order instead of selling it.

6) Price kept falling I have thus locked in a piece @ 356.100 correcting the mistake made buying shares instead of selling.
7) Locked in one more above target 1 @ immediate level of support on the 5min chart

8) Locked again 1 piece @ target 1 after failed bounce.
9) I had my last piece with a stop @ 353.68 below pm high with an AVG price of 354.65 with the aim of leaving open till close if price would have kept trading higher.

Tape reading:

1) I didn't noticed anything particularly relevant by the tape, I didn't refer to it in this trade, better saying I haven't been able and good enough to get anything by it. Sometimes it's really hard to get any, even the easiest, hint by it

Orders:

1) I have set the entry as soon as I spotted the possibility for the pattern to complete.
3) Fixed my mental condition and found back the focus I have set down my takers. The stop loss was not set as I always do when trading the open, while I had my fingers printed on the keyboard hotkeys to close the trade in case my exit price would have been traded.
**5) Made a mistake with the stop limit order, I have just bought instead of selling.

Intuit:

Today if I am reporting of a trade is cause I have followed my intuit and instinct, I have to underline this: FINALLY!
It's long now I follow more stocks for my trading session in order to have the opportunity to apply my setups and patterns on more stocks in case the fresh catalyst ones don't provide me a possible entry or I just miss it. I have selected TSLA cause when in a trend can produce good days. I wanted to select it already yesterday and the day before. On the Daily chart it was a perfect entry considering the test of the 243sh first rejected the day before yesterday and then broken in yesterday's session. I was thus long biased here, many investors would have kept their long considering the break, many would have step in and many would have unwind or close shorts. Today a continuation imo was more then predictable at least a try, as it occurred up to the 357 level of resistance.

Internalization:

I have noticed the price action and held just for a while to see if the micro pull back would have been confirmed. Price held perfectly 353.54 previous pivot made at 09:35 thus I have entered the trade. Retested the level pricing @ 353.39 at 09:42, I was ready to get out if we would have traded below the 353 not holding 352.80.

Today occurred something that was already months I did no longer experience. Has been the process of internalizing all the variables outside and inside of myself that gave me the opportunity to wake up by the hypnosis I was in. Analyzing the outside I had everything under view and control, ready to get out accordingly to the plan. But when I have arrived analyzing inside of me I have found the darkness, no hanging points of support all was obscured by worries that were funded on nothing. There I have literally screamed and repeated the words I have stated before. I am disappointed for my condition once in the trade but satisfied by how I managed the way out of it!

Comments:

Good and bad things occurred today. So many points of reflection in relation to my trading style and overall body/mind condition. I have left Yoga lately cause I do no longer want to miss parts of the trading day. I had lessons for 2 hours in the middle of the trading session, this led me to miss following the market as I would love to. I just need a while to reorganize my schedule accordingly to the fact that by 12:30 till 22:00 I can't have any other kind of commitment.

What I did not like about the trade:
I didn't like the mistake in setting the stop limit order. It ruined a bit my avg. I had just one little piece by the time price crossed down my entry price and kept it open cause I had still to respect the pm high regardless of my price. My price changed due to the mistake thus market does not have anything to care about it.
I didn't like to have felt even if for just few seconds in a kind of panic mode. Surprised a lot here. I do not write about that really long time now.

What I have liked:
I have liked that I have FINALLY executed my trading idea. I could have get a loss by that and still be ok cause responded to a planned setup that I have already traded and repeated.
I have liked how I handled my "panicking". I reacted here! Perhaps my little and limited experience helped a bit here. I have been passing through this kind of mental state already in the past and worked hard to correct it getting great results. As I said before I will take back the Yoga/meditation practice!

Additional Comments if any:
So many points of analysis just on a single trade, I am focused on my activity and willing to improve the improvable and learn what I still don't know. ER season is slowly relaxing, statistically I had performed better when ER season starts to lose volatility.
Another point to reflect about and improve.