BTC Trade on Jan 5, 2020 21:55 from Marius: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture

BTC and the cryptocurrency market has been in price compression and in a range for the past 6 weeks. It is also consolidating at key longer-term price levels. I've been watching the CME BTC futures recently to see if there are any lead indicators in the volume of contracts being traded. It is not 24 hours like the cryptocurrency market but I have a thesis of more institutional trading being done on this product vs. other exchanges which have exposure to retail. There is a known fundamental event which is the halving occurring May 2020.

There has been tensions between the US and the middle east due to recent military operations. Equities, oil, and gold have been seeing direct reaction thus far in the opening of a new week on overnight futures markets. In the past BTC has shown correlation in certain global market events like this but not always. It's also worth noting here that GC1! (gold futures) is breaking out of a key level of resistance. The last time gold made a major move BTC was also correlated with it. Not placing a lot of weight on this but will note it in my trade review. The price action and volume will be the main evaluating factor in this trade.

Intraday Fundamentals
BTC CME Futures

RVOL - 2.0 (previous daily close)
AVOL - 4.497K
ATR - 359
Short Float - ?

Technical Analysis

CME - BTC1! (BTC futures) D

CBP - BTCUSD D

CME E-mini - ES1! (S&P 500 futures) D

NYMEX - Cl1! (crude oil futures) D

COMEX - GC1! (gold futures) D

CME - BTC1! 4H

CME - BTC1! 30M

CBP - BTCUSD 30M

CBP - BTC USD 5M (breakout trade analysis)

Tape Reading
I was watching the tape and the 1 minute chart after clearing 7500. There was a shallow pull-in 2M EQ price compression range forming. As the price was moving away to break out of the range I saw buyers stepping up and the tape flowing with constant buy orders with velocity picking up and taking out a 150 offer at 7540. Nothing large but just seemed like a buy program was being used (also noticed this checking in periodically looking at the order flow patterns). Shortly after sellers stepped in taking the move back down but buyers found support into the 7500 area. Price action was still fading after reviewing later and still in a mid-term shallow pull-in.

Trade Management
Trade 1
A level is defined for my risk here if there is no follow through when more markets open in the AM. This is at a noted level area where there is opportunity to risk off of for a potential move out of the current range.

Trade position has been exited shortly after the buyers tagged 8000. Was watching the shorter-term timeframes on the aggressive buying patterns shortly after 16:10. Also noting at 08:50 there was a failed breakout attempt but found buyers into 7500. I had initial plans to exit the position here but the buyers held it.

The exit was preceded with the 561 offer at 8000 being tagged, buyers unable to absorb it leaving it around 330 and retracing. There was a kill candle printed and once there was 1 minute LL follow I hit out. This is an intermediate review as the trade is still in play. I'm planning to risk off of the next level of 8000 or find an area to re-enter based off of consolidation before we re-test 8000.


Trade 2

Trade 3

Trade 4

Trade 5
This was a swing position off of retest of the 8500 level. It held and made new highs. 8700 was a stop level risk I was giving the position to see if it can develop further. Will continually evaluate and see if this can be another risk level if the current trend resumes.

Trade 6
Entered this wedge breakout after testing a mid-term trendline. Initially bids held but showed weakness a few hours later. In the middle of the night price dropped and found no bids and went through the trend line and multiple supports. Some buyers might still be trapped in these areas w/ the failed breakout. No notable bounce as of yet. Notable change in price characteristics since the initial move in the beginning of the year

Trade 7
I entered here on a breakout to test the 9500-10k levels. Orderbook was cleared and book inefficiency was seen when all stops above and below were hit. Price trended upwards after which looked like buyers taking control. I had a bias on price being also affected by EOM future contracts closing. Gave too much room for the buyers and trade should have been risked and stopped at the failed break out. There was also a trade on GBTC which incurred a much larger drawdown at the tail end of a profitable month due to the timing of market open and myself with lack of sufficient recovery/sleep to make full attentive judgements.

Trade Review
Overall this was a good trade with multiple executions for the whole month. I learned more about myself, lifestyle, and the cryptocurrency markets. I've been trading this market since 2017. Recently since the last quarter have been getting more professional education and help on the equity side of trading. I've been applying these skills into the cryptocurrency markets. Equity trades show much better results but the former market gave me the chance to put in more reps in technical analysis and trading due the structure of the market (24 hours a day and no PDT rules). I have now decided after careful review to temporarily move full focus on the equity trading side. This will also aid in allowing me to fully rest in the evenings and weekends and focus on US trading market hours and stocks. It will also minimize future lost opportunity costs even though BTC + markets may be in play. There maybe be relevant areas in the stock market that will correlate to the cryptocurrency markets. This will be reviewed again at a later date if focus will be re-directed into trading this market.

Note : Due to Tradervue not being configured for cryptocurrency execution(s) (ie. partial positions or less than 1 share) the data below only shows the current dollar volume amount of the trade for stats tracking purposes.
Trade 1
Entry price = $7543.00 at 0.64130384 ($16.93 fee)
Exit price = $7923.37 at 0.64130384 ($17.78 fee)
Trade 2
Entry price = $8,002.61 at 0.63052423 (17.66 fee)
Exit price = $8,081.99 at 0.63052423 (17.84 fee)
Trade 3
Entry price = $8,160.01 at 0.62014002 (17.71 fee)
Exit price = $8,080.01 at 0.62014002 (17.54 fee)
Trade 4
Entry price = $8,193.76 at 0.60729268 (17.42 fee)
Exit price = $8,298.07 at 0.60729268 (12.60 fee)
Trade 5
Entry price = $8,500.00 at 0.583049498 (12.39 fee)
Exit price = $8,700.00 at 0.583049498 (12.68 fee)

Trade 6
Entry price = $9,100.01 at 0.56104621 (12.76 fee)
Exit price = $8,950.00 at 0.56104621 (12.55 fee)

Trade 7
Entry price = $9450.00 at 0.52317584 (12.36 fee)
Exit price = $9300.00 at 0.52317584 (12.16 fee)