INTC Trade on Jan 24, 2020 09:34 from J_Matrix: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Big Picture:
-Stocks retreat on renewed coronavirus concerns
24-Jan-20 16:10 ET
Dow -170.36 at 28989.64, Nasdaq -87.57 at 9314.93, S&P -30.07 at 3295.47
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 lost 0.9% on Friday in a steady decline from opening levels, as risk sentiment was dampened by the CDC confirming the second case of coronavirus in the U.S. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.4%.

Fundamental Catalyst:
-Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) reported fourth quarter and full year earnings yesterday after the bell, and today in the afternoon its stock has jumped 7.5% to $68 on the earnings beat. The computing and networking firm posted net income of $6.9 billion, up 33% from $5.2 billion in the prior year period, and GAAP earnings per share of $1.58, beating consensus estimates of $1.23. Intel posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.52, up from $1.28 and beating consensus estimates of $1.25. The firm posted revenue of $20.21 billion, up 8.3% and beating estimates by $980 million. For the full year, the firm reported net income of $21.0 billion on revenue of $72.0 billion. Looking ahead to fiscal 2020, Intel gave upside guidance, seeing adjusted earnings of $5.00 on revenue of $73.5 billion.

The Analysts:
-Many top tier firm analysts chimed in on their take on INTC and a majority of them took the positive side. Listed are just some of the Analysts headlines.
-Needham analyst Quinn Bolton maintained a Hold rating on Intel.
-Wells Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers maintained an Equal-Weight rating and increased the price target from $58 to $70.
-UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $60 to $75.
-KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Weston Twigg remained at Sector Weight.
-Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson maintained an Underperform rating and increased the price target from $46 to $52.50.

Fundamental Numbers:
RVOL elevated Premarket.
RVOL on the day 4.24
ATR 1.00
Inst Own 68%
Float 4.27B
Short Float 1.38%

Thesis:
-Given the Catalyst of the positive ER and the stock hitting all time highs, I thought there was a high probability of INTC running up for the day even against the broad market in relations to the Corona Virus Catalyst. With INTC being a well known name in the tech sector among the market's speculators, I suspected that 'smart money' will be wanting to accumulate and buy this ER news. Using the VWAP(an institution recognized indicator), I plan to make trade decisions based around it for the day.
1. Expect a dip at the open.
2. Look for a surge in volume push at the opening and READING THE TAPE to get long with minimal risk.
3. As the VWAP settles around 10-1130am, assess the stock's behavior in relations the VWAP. If the thesis is correct, price should gravitate back to the VWAP after the opening push and consolidates there for accumulation. Look at the accumulation area and establish a tight higher low formation to get long some more and HOLD until thesis is invalidated. Namely the stock loses VWAP support and starts to trend to the down side.
4. The back up plan is the inverse of said long thesis. INTC gapped up huge Jan 23 after hours on ER. We see that prior to ER, the market has already been buying. Hence at the opening pop, I should expect a sell off from profit taking to fill the gap once it loses the infliction point support.

Technical Numbers:
Inflexion point 67.25
Premarket support 66
Premarket resistance 67.50
ER first reaction highs 68.25
Psychological whole number 67

Trade Management:
1. As expected, opening drive produced a decisive push up with volume in the first few minutes of the bell. As I saw 67 psycho gets pushed thru with volume and determination, I started applying my READING THE TAPE skills to find a conservative long entry with proper R:R. The target of this trade was to take me to 68-68.25 and using the 67+/- as risk was very valid imo. (1 ATR) The point of this opening drive entry is to SCALP the first long move and capture the emotions of premarket panicking shorts as well as premarket opening range breakout buyers. Entry 67.38 risk 67.13. The tape showed bids and continuous support at 67.25.
2. Took a majority of the position off and paid my self as near my target as possible without risking losing profits at 67.91.
3. Took another 1/2 of the remaining few that I had left as the first uptrend line snaps at 68.24.
4. Flat as I held this until my thesis is invalidated as the stock consolidated a while UNDER the VWAP AND proceeded to go lower indicated by volume at 67.94 2:36:16pm EST.

Trade Review:
1. There were many spots where I could have added in back throughout the day where my thesis was confirmed and validated and yet I hesitated to pull the trigger. Mainly because of my lack of data and experience for this setup. The best adding area was on the 5 minute chart shown from 10:45-10:49AM. The accumulation in and around the VWAP from 10:20-10:30 followed by a volume push at 10:35 triggered my main thesis and the higher low formed thereafter was my calling of confirmation. I didn't take it. This to me was a grave mistake where I gave up a golden opportunity in which I PLANNED for, SAW, but didn't take. Out of fear, the inability to trade mindfully doing the right thing, unable to let go of the psychological need for certainty. This in it self is a mental error and an obstacle to my trading mentality.