The SPY broke out from 307.50 yesterday March 4th 2020 with a massive fight between bulls and bears. The market closed at the very highs of 312.86 and held there afterhours. My thinking was that a lot of longs bought the 307.50 and 310 B/O. On March 5th 2020(today), SPY gapped down huge back to where the March 4th opened UNDER 307.50. The longs were trapped and this set up for a fantastic short opportunity. Given the fears of Covid-19 and the current volatility, my thesis was that these longs needed to get out and even perhaps capitulate if March 4th lows break down. I purposely started my short early knowing full well the SPY needed time to get back to a spot where the bulls can let go. Hence in the first hour and a half I kept my size super small. I also got in early on purpose on a 'just in case they just let it go at the open mentality'. I knew I had to be in this trade, I just didn't know that exact time when it would turn and dump. After evaluations, I can see spots where I can get a lot bigger and hold longer. I did very well managing the position as it went against me early. My negative PNL being very manageable in the morning reflected that. However after getting flat on this trade, even though I'm positive on the PNL, I recognized that my mistake is not jamming more size on the turn once it came. Perhaps the mental stress of getting in early is getting into the way of my jamming in.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-03-05 09:30:08 | SPY | sell | $304.910 | short |
2020-03-05 09:33:34 | SPY | sell | $304.860 | short |
2020-03-05 09:36:06 | SPY | sell | $305.730 | short |
2020-03-05 09:38:04 | SPY | sell | $305.870 | short |
2020-03-05 09:38:21 | SPY | buy | $305.600 | short |
2020-03-05 09:39:26 | SPY | sell | $305.880 | short |
2020-03-05 09:40:44 | SPY | buy | $305.660 | short |
2020-03-05 09:52:09 | SPY | buy | $304.760 | short |
2020-03-05 10:01:02 | SPY | sell | $304.750 | short |
2020-03-05 10:04:26 | SPY | buy | $304.450 | short |
2020-03-05 10:13:36 | SPY | sell | $305.480 | short |
2020-03-05 10:16:05 | SPY | sell | $305.760 | short |
2020-03-05 10:16:39 | SPY | buy | $305.540 | short |
2020-03-05 10:18:27 | SPY | sell | $306.010 | short |
2020-03-05 10:24:13 | SPY | sell | $306.620 | short |
2020-03-05 10:24:40 | SPY | buy | $306.530 | short |
2020-03-05 10:25:22 | SPY | buy | $306.060 | short |
2020-03-05 11:14:11 | SPY | sell | $307.960 | short |
2020-03-05 11:18:22 | SPY | buy | $308.150 | short |
2020-03-05 11:20:30 | SPY | sell | $307.890 | short |
2020-03-05 11:20:43 | SPY | buy | $307.760 | short |
2020-03-05 11:21:12 | SPY | buy | $307.580 | short |
2020-03-05 11:23:34 | SPY | sell | $307.650 | short |
2020-03-05 11:24:40 | SPY | buy | $307.490 | short |
2020-03-05 11:32:12 | SPY | buy | $307.550 | short |
2020-03-05 11:37:57 | SPY | buy | $306.810 | short |
2020-03-05 11:51:11 | SPY | sell | $306.330 | short |
2020-03-05 11:53:04 | SPY | buy | $306.130 | short |
2020-03-05 11:54:25 | SPY | buy | $306.340 | short |
2020-03-05 11:56:08 | SPY | buy | $305.510 | short |
2020-03-05 12:31:25 | SPY | buy | $304.910 | 0 |
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