XOM Trade on Apr 7, 2020 09:34 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

I had a buy the rumor thesis on this thinking that it may move above 43 and hold for a bit awaiting the OPEC meeting in the pre-market. However, the action out of the gate led me to believe that with the stronger move into the close yesterday that people were profit taking. I started to look for the short off 43 and more or less got caught on the wrong side trying to short off 42.50-60 and again off the last spike higher. These would cost me some of my early patience leading me to play the last short here to tight and costing me a decent home run.

XOM
Total gain/loss: $6.33 Largest gain: $5.58 (show)

Average daily gain/loss: $6.33 Largest loss: $0.00
Average daily volume: 420 Average per-share gain/loss: $0.03
Average winning trade: $3.17 Average trade gain/loss: $3.17
Average losing trade: n/a Trade P&L standard deviation: $3.42
Total number of trades: 2 Profit factor: n/a
Number of winning trades: 2 (100.0%) Average hold time (winning trades): 18 minutes
Number of losing trades: 0 Average hold time (losing trades): 0
Max consecutive wins: 2 (show)
Max consecutive losses: 0
Average position MFE: $3.35 Average position MAE: $-0.52

Intraday Fundamentals
• CAPex cuts, production cuts
• Exxon Mobil Corp. said Tuesday that it would cut its 2020 capital spending by 30% as global demand for oil is sapped by the coronavirus.
• The largest portion of the $10 billion in cuts will be in the Permian Basin , the largest U.S. oil field, in Texas and New Mexico . Exxon said it would evaluate how the cuts would affect production.
• "We haven't seen anything like we are facing today," Chief Executive Darren Woods said on a call with reporters Tuesday morning.
• With the announcement, Exxon became the latest major oil firm to significantly reduce its budget in response to a crash in oil prices caused in large part by the response to the virus. Rival Chevron Corp. said last month it would cut its spending by $4 billion , or 20%. Large, international oil companies and U.S. shale producers have collectively slashed budgets by tens of billions of dollars.
• Exxon's move comes ahead of a virtual meeting set for Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with other oil-producing nations including Canada and Russia to discuss an agreement to cut oil production. But Russian and Saudi Arabian officials have said any truce in their fight for market share, which has also helped crater oil prices over the past month, must be accompanied by a production cut in the U.S.
• Exxon, Chevron and other large U.S. oil companies are adamantly opposed to mandated production cuts, believing that a free market should sort things out. Many U.S. shale wells aren't economic at current prices, and producers will ultimately be forced to shut-in some wells.
• But even globally coordinated production cuts would likely be insufficient to stem the rapidly building oil glut as the new coronavirus batters oil demand. Rystad Energy estimates global demand may shrink by 25 million barrels a day, meaning that even the 10 to 15 million barrels in cuts proposed by some Saudi and Russian officials wouldn't be enough.
• Even with the cuts, Exxon will have trouble covering its dividend and capital expenses in 2020 without taking on debt or selling off assets. It sold $ 8.5 billion in bonds in March, using a window of opportunity to convert short- term debt into long-term debt at low rates. S&P Global Ratings downgraded the company's credit rating and unsecured debt in March.
Technicals
ADV 34.10 RVOL 1.22 BETA 1.24 ATR 1.24 Short 1.06% Inst Own 57.20
Daily

Hourly

Intra

Trading Strategy
• Hold for this to come back into 42.50 for a bounce scalp at the opening.
• If it fails all the way to 42 take a long with a little more size and look for the run to 43
• Possible short off 43.50
• This should have the strongest near term support at 42, if 42 drops look short into 41.50 or lower
Reading the Tape
I cannot say that there was much of a dead give away on the tape. However, when I was looking for this to reject of the previous high and then the opening print for a short. I did see enough of a stall in those shorts to take the positions even though the overall tape was pretty positive coming off 42.50.

Trade Management

Trade Notes
• I had a buy the rumor thesis on this thinking that it may move above 43 and hold for a bit awaiting the OPEC meeting in the pre-market. However, the action out of the gate led me to believe that with the stronger move into the close yesterday that people were profit taking. I started to look for the short off 43 and more or less got caught on the wrong side trying to short off 42.50-60 and again off the last spike higher. These would cost me some of my early patience leading me to play the last short here to tight and costing me a decent home run.
• Shorting this off 42.50 was the right idea. I needed to get back in here once the strength left the chart and the rebreak of 42.50