IBM Trade on Apr 21, 2020 15:52 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

IBM
Intraday Fundamentals
• IBM (IBM 114.50, -5.91): -5.1% despite beating earnings estimates. The company also reported a yr/yr decline in revenue and withdrew its FY20 guidance due to COVID-19.
• Tier 2 Target reduction
• First-quarter earnings beat, but outlook pulled on uncertainty
• International Business Machines Corp. stock slipped in the extended session Monday after the tech giant reported its revenue returned to a decline in the first quarter as the spread of COVID-19 hit software sales heavily in March and pulled its annual forecast for now.
• "Looking at the first quarter, through February we were tracking roughly in-line with our expectations," said Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh in the conference call. "As we got into March, the health situation and resulting social distancing became more widespread. As you would expect, we saw noticeable change in client priorities."
• The company reported first-quarter net income of $1.18 billion , or $1.31 a share, compared with $1.59 billion , or $ 1.78 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings were $1.84 a share, down from $2.25 a share a year ago. Revenue declined to $17.57 billion from $18.18 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of $1.81 a share on revenue of $17.59 billion on average.
• The decline in revenue returns Big Blue to a losing streak it briefly snapped when it barely managed to eke out a slight rise in sales in the fourth quarter (). IBM's sales have declined year-over-year in all but four of the past 32 quarters.
• "With that, there was effectively a pause, as clients understandably dealt with their most pressing needs," Kavanaugh said. "This was most pronounced in our software business, where the vast majority of transactions typically close-in the last two weeks of the quarter."
• Kavanaugh elaborated that IBM got "hit" on cognitive applications and on its transaction processing businesses, which are used heavily by retailers and the automotive industry. The CFO also noted that 70% of its clients are industries that are considered to be "minimally" to "moderately" impacted by COVID-19, according to data from research firms Gartner and International Data Group .
Technicals
ADV8.18m RVOL .97 ATR 6.34 BETA 1.25 Short 1.9% Inst Own 58.6%
Daily

• This was testing the short SMA on the daily this will drop today
• It may set up for a test from underneath if this tries to gap close before moving lower
Hourly

• There is an air pocket here, opening drive Short??
•
Intra

• 115.70 or 116 PM high?
Trading Strategy
• Short a drop of 144, consider an opening drive short especially if it pops to 115.50
• Trend follow, sell rips into the SMA and VWAP
• Momentum plays on the trend side
Reading the Tape
This was much easier to see strength and weakness than I let it be. There was also time around 116.10 on a later day short that I watch the sellers move down from 166.25
Trade Management

Trade Notes
• I tried pulling this short as it failed to break 114.50 adn the again at 115, I stayed after this short a little to long. I wanted to short an opening drive as I believe there was a pocket there. I worked something esle out of the gate and missed the game plan and kept a strong short bias this all day instead of being open minded.
• Momentum trade entry that managed to get me a set of good partials while leaving a little for a continued run. This was not a place to flip long however. I did need to take this closer to 115 to set the trade up better and control the risk a little tighter.
• I tried to hold until this came back up to 115. However, I feared into it after it could not push back up. I was big enough to take advantage of the qquic flsuh before it started to look like it may bounce at 114.50.
• I would trade this on way too may other spots heading into the close. I just felt that I was late to the long and I couldn’t get a solid set up for.