UPS Trade on Apr 28, 2020 09:48 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

UPS
Statistics
Total gain/loss: $29.36 Largest gain: $21.75 (show)

Average daily gain/loss: $29.36 Largest loss: $-16.28 (show)

Average daily volume: 2130 Average per-share gain/loss: $0.03
Average winning trade: $10.08 Average trade gain/loss: $3.67
Average losing trade: $-15.56 Trade P&L standard deviation: $14.14
Total number of trades: 8 Profit factor: 1.94
Number of winning trades: 6 (75.0%) Average hold time (winning trades): 19 minutes
Number of losing trades: 2 (25.0%) Average hold time (losing trades): 27 minutes
Max consecutive wins: 3 (show)
Max consecutive losses: 1 (show)

Average position MFE: $9.34 Average position MAE: $-5.08

Intraday Fundamentals
• Shares of United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) dropped 2.5% in premarket trading Tuesday, after the package delivery giant reported first-quarter profit that fell below expectations although revenue beat, and said it is unable to provide financial guidance given uncertainties over the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Net income fell to $965 million , or $ 1.11 a share, from $1.11 billion , or $1.28 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding non-recurring items, adjusted earnings per share fell to $1.15 from $1.39 , below the FactSet consensus of $1.24 . Revenue rose 5.1% to $18.04 billion , above the FactSet consensus of $17.27 billion , as domestic revenue rose 9.3% while international revenue fell 2.2%. UPS said it experienced "significant headwinds" from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its customers, coupled with higher self-insurance accruals. While UPS didn't provide full-year financial guidance, it said it expects 2010 capital expenditures to be $1 billion less then previous estimates, and that it is suspending stock repurchases for the year. The stock has lost 11.1% over the past three months through Monday, while the Dow Jones Transportation Average has dropped 23.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined 16.0%.
Technicals
ADV 5.82 m RVOL .75 ATR 4.19 BETA .92 Short 1.83% Inst Own 71.40%
Daily

Hourly

Intra

Trading Strategy
• Look for a long at 97.50 small with a wide stop
• 98 long if it moves to here at the open and begins to hold the PM low
• Short 99.75 targeting 99 and long this level after the first test or two if this stay strong into the afternoon session
Reading the Tape

Out of the gate, I waited and watched and I saw this start bouncing and holding between 97.60 and 97.50 and took the trade as I had laid it out with the use of the tape. There was a chage in behavior just under 100 and I did not take advantage properly.
Trade Management

Trade Notes
• I traded this off the one minute. I caught this when it spiked below 98. I did watch it catch some bids at 97.50 and took the trade using a 1for 1 set up. I let the trade work as designed. I have a bigger tolerance for volatility at this time of day. I probably should have been at the 30 minimum or at least 20 like I started with yesterday and took the full pont loss. A solid set up working the general opening long plan looking for a bounce at the open. A good expression of one of the scenario that i painted pre-market.
• I had set in the game plan if this could not break or hold 100. Taking this short a little closer to the 100 would have allowed me to get a little bigger on this short. I was set up on 2 to 1 trades for the first and last trades. I missed a both set ups on the two middle trades here leaving me in a discretion trade that i am trying to avoid at the moment.
• A couple attempts at longs here. The first in here was a VWAP support play that i don't think i could have set up better expecting a bounce. The long of 97.50 again was the right spot on this. I think that i missed something on the break of 98 that would have saved me the first long. But, i did set the trade up to test 98.25 again with 18 cents of risk, Or just under 2 for 1. This was a solid set up for a looking for a resistance level to turn support.
• Tight short looking for 97.75 to hold as new resistance after watching it unable to get above and hold.
• This is where sticking to the 2 for set up regardless would have made this a profitable trade and probably eliminated the next set of losers.
• there was way more here, and i even took out the target bracket to try to give this some more room to work.

I had set in the game plan if this could not break or hold 100. Taking this short a little closer to the 100 would ahve allowed me to get a little bigger on this short. I was set up on 2 to 1 trades for the first and last trades. I missed a both set ups on the two middle trades here leaving me in a discretion trade that i am trying to avoid at the moment.