NVAX Trade on May 12, 2020 15:40 from beno: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Fundamentals

As of: Sep 30 2019 Q (Share outstanding is latest)
Shares Outstanding (latest from broker): 42.6m
Cash: 71.167m (+$250m from recent offerings)
Current liabilities: 21.575m
Current ratio: 4.2
NWC (total current assets - total current liabilities): 67.5m
Accumulated deficit: 1.4b (WOW THIS IS HUGE)
Book value per share (Stock holder equity / Shares outstanding): -6.08
Monthly Burn rate (net cash used in operating activities / months): 12.54m
Estimated current cash: 258.467m (with cash from offerings)

Enough cash for 20 months if counting cash from Jan 21 and Mar 02 offerings

Catalysts / News / Painting the picture

-Begins animal testing for COVID-19 vaccine
-$250m shelf on Dec 31 2019 (All used from below prospectuses)
-Jan 21 2020: $100m ATM
-Mar 02 2020: $150m ATM
-April 08 2020: Identifies COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate, Human Testing To Begin In Mid-May
-May 11 2020: $384M cash injection for vaccine production

Technical Analysis

-SPY pattern: Fade
-Intraday pattern: Mountain
-Levels: 36, 38, 42, 43, 44.5

Strategy / Confluence / Sizing Guide / Risk

Strategy: First test short of 40 level
Confluence: VWAP, Whole $
Strike Zone: 40 - 40.50
Sizing (lots): 4
Risk (stop / Rs): Hold above 40.50

Review / Lessons Learned

So, I had a feeling this trade wasn't going to work the moment I got in (I thought about it afterwards). Everyone will be shorting NVAX backside and NVAX was holding up relatively well compared to SPY (SPY was dumping for 1 hour straight starting at 3pm). Also, I know people get margin calls at the EoD, so I simply didn't want that headache and potentially give back my gains for this end of day play. I usually never play stocks near EoD because there's too many shenanigans...

My thesis for scratching the trade was correct.