Finally, a pattern that I haven't seen for a while with all this "buy" frenzy.
CHANGING FUDAMENTALS:
Much of the focus of investors is on China, where SBUX says comparable sales were down 21% in May. Comparable sales were down 43% in the U.S. during the month, while Starbucks notes that 91% of its stores in the region were open at the end of May. Adding it all up, Starbucks expects FQ3 EPS of -$0.70 to -$0.55 and FQ4 EPS of $0.15 to $0.40
Very weak premarket, gaped below $81 major daily level, and continued creeping lower until the opening bell.
Plan was as follows:
a) BEARISH as long as it trades/holds below R2=$81
b) (P) Changing Fundamentals
c) (S) Bearish Bias - Holding Resistance at R1=80.2 and DTSB od S2=$78.5
I was expecting a pop/relief move at the open and a quick rejection at R1=$80.2 or R2=$81 (that would be ideal). Then, roll-over and sell-off towards S2=20SMA@daily=$78.
Tried to break above VWAP and pop towards R1=$80.2 at the open but simply couldn't.
Seller was there holding it down below VWAP for at least 5mins.
Got filler size, risking above R1=$80.2, added half-Tier I when I realized the seller at VWAP, expecting the break of S1=premarket low=$79.5 and a move to S2=$78-78.5 area.
Added another half-Tier through the break of S1.
Covered some in-front of $79 whole number, had a bid at $78.6 which didn't get filled.
SBUX reversed and I covered aggressively on the way up. Left some with stop above $80.
Saw the bear flag forming below S1+VWAP,
added half-Tier, risking above S1+VWAP, expecting the roll-over and a retest of LOD at a minimum.
Got the move to S2=$78.5 and covered the position.
(+) Great price/tape reading
(+) Nice executions
(-) Should have stayed with it a bit longer and re-enter short at the 2nd rejection of VWAP to the penny.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-06-10 09:31:42 | SBUX | sell | $79.790 | short |
2020-06-10 09:34:02 | SBUX | sell | $79.820 | short |
2020-06-10 09:34:02 | SBUX | sell | $79.820 | short |
2020-06-10 09:34:03 | SBUX | sell | $79.812 | short |
2020-06-10 09:35:04 | SBUX | sell | $79.720 | short |
2020-06-10 09:40:19 | SBUX | sell | $79.432 | short |
2020-06-10 09:41:47 | SBUX | buy | $79.130 | short |
2020-06-10 09:49:24 | SBUX | buy | $79.210 | short |
2020-06-10 10:02:14 | SBUX | sell | $79.170 | short |
2020-06-10 10:22:08 | SBUX | buy | $78.607 | short |
2020-06-10 10:27:16 | SBUX | buy | $78.749 | 0 |
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