Earnings Play:
-- EPS and rev. miss, rev. -16.5% Y/Y
-- Company believes total comparable sales and comparable store sales are not currently representative of the underlying trends of its business.
-- Gross margin was 51.3% of revenue vs 53.9% a year ago
-- Change YTD +30% vs SPY -5%
I was extremely bearish on the name coming into the day.
-- Bad earning #s from a name that was thought to be COVID-proof,
-- trading at ATHs,
-- had more than doubled from March lows,
-- was extended at daily-weekly timeframe, w/o making a serious pullback from the recent rally.
Seeing the premarket bounce from the earnings lows=$283 to $300, I thought LULU had a good chance to pop to R1=yesterday's close=major daily level=$307.
R1=$307 was a very important level, above of which many longs who had chased the price higher were now trapped!!, and wanted to cut/trim their long exposure..
Plan as follows:
a) BEARISH as long as it trades/holds below R1=$307
b) (P) Earnings Play
c) (S) Bearish Bias - Holding Resistance at R1=$307 and DTSB of S2=premarket low=$283
I was expecting a pop to R1 at the open, quick rejection there, roll-over through S1=200EMA@60min=$296, and a sharp move lower towards S2=$283.
This thing faked me so well at the open.
Popped to premarket high=$305, got rejected and rolled-over to S1=$296.
At the bounce back to VWAP,
Went short Tier 0, risking HOD=premarket high=$305, expecting the break of S1 and a momo sell-off to S2.
LULU held below VWAP and started selling-off lower.
Added Tier I, as it was breaking down, risking same stop - HOD=$305.
However, held S1=296 to the penny and bounced hard, breaking above HOD..
Stopped out. Brutal:/
Consolidated below R1=$307 and looked like it was about to break higher.
However,
-- after the 2nd failed attempt to break higher
-- after putting some nasty long upper wicks at R1
-- 15min candle closed as a "gravestone" doji
-- market started selling-off (market alignment)
-- original thesis/premarket plan was to short against R1
decided to try it one more time, for the "Technical Reversal on the 15min" reversal pattern.
Got short small size, risking above HOD=$308.5s, expecting the reveral back to VWAP (at a minimum).
Luckily, this thing sold-off quicker than expected, so I covered the bulk in-front of S1=LOD=$296.
Added to the short again once the bear-flag/flat-line consolidation above S1=LOD resolved, risking above VWAP.
Covered in-front of $292.
Tried small shorts for the break lower to S2=283, but LULU held support at $290-292 area.
Finally, pushed higher before the close.
(-) Should have been quicker trimming size after it held S1 as support and bounced back. Too slow.
(+) Good loss turned to a papercut.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-06-12 07:31:49 | LULU | sell | $298.030 | short |
2020-06-12 07:38:27 | LULU | sell | $299.600 | short |
2020-06-12 08:05:53 | LULU | buy | $298.990 | 0 |
2020-06-12 08:13:04 | LULU | sell | $298.000 | short |
2020-06-12 08:23:39 | LULU | buy | $297.740 | 0 |
2020-06-12 09:35:12 | LULU | sell | $300.970 | short |
2020-06-12 09:35:39 | LULU | sell | $299.570 | short |
2020-06-12 09:36:31 | LULU | sell | $297.580 | short |
2020-06-12 09:36:38 | LULU | sell | $297.440 | short |
2020-06-12 09:36:40 | LULU | sell | $297.440 | short |
2020-06-12 09:37:13 | LULU | sell | $296.420 | short |
2020-06-12 09:37:16 | LULU | sell | $296.680 | short |
2020-06-12 09:41:43 | LULU | buy | $304.790 | 0 |
2020-06-12 09:53:36 | LULU | sell | $304.920 | short |
2020-06-12 09:53:46 | LULU | sell | $305.120 | short |
2020-06-12 10:19:31 | LULU | buy | $299.120 | short |
2020-06-12 10:27:52 | LULU | buy | $297.250 | short |
2020-06-12 10:58:18 | LULU | sell | $296.040 | short |
2020-06-12 11:20:02 | LULU | buy | $292.230 | short |
2020-06-12 11:40:55 | LULU | sell | $292.750 | short |
2020-06-12 11:44:20 | LULU | sell | $292.140 | short |
2020-06-12 12:09:15 | LULU | buy | $295.380 | short |
2020-06-12 12:11:49 | LULU | sell | $293.430 | short |
2020-06-12 13:54:43 | LULU | buy | $291.150 | short |
2020-06-12 14:13:13 | LULU | buy | $291.780 | short |
2020-06-12 14:30:33 | LULU | buy | $293.930 | 0 |
You need to log into your Tradervue account to leave a comment. If you don't have one,
it takes
just a few seconds to sign up, and it's free!