LULU Trade on Jun 12, 2020 07:31 from spyrosz: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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spyrosz

 

Earnings Play:
-- EPS and rev. miss, rev. -16.5% Y/Y
-- Company believes total comparable sales and comparable store sales are not currently representative of the underlying trends of its business.
-- Gross margin was 51.3% of revenue vs 53.9% a year ago
-- Change YTD +30% vs SPY -5%

I was extremely bearish on the name coming into the day.
-- Bad earning #s from a name that was thought to be COVID-proof,
-- trading at ATHs,
-- had more than doubled from March lows,
-- was extended at daily-weekly timeframe, w/o making a serious pullback from the recent rally.

Seeing the premarket bounce from the earnings lows=$283 to $300, I thought LULU had a good chance to pop to R1=yesterday's close=major daily level=$307.
R1=$307 was a very important level, above of which many longs who had chased the price higher were now trapped!!, and wanted to cut/trim their long exposure..

Plan as follows:
a) BEARISH as long as it trades/holds below R1=$307
b) (P) Earnings Play
c) (S) Bearish Bias - Holding Resistance at R1=$307 and DTSB of S2=premarket low=$283
I was expecting a pop to R1 at the open, quick rejection there, roll-over through S1=200EMA@60min=$296, and a sharp move lower towards S2=$283.

This thing faked me so well at the open.
Popped to premarket high=$305, got rejected and rolled-over to S1=$296.
At the bounce back to VWAP,

Went short Tier 0, risking HOD=premarket high=$305, expecting the break of S1 and a momo sell-off to S2.

LULU held below VWAP and started selling-off lower.
Added Tier I, as it was breaking down, risking same stop - HOD=$305.

However, held S1=296 to the penny and bounced hard, breaking above HOD..
Stopped out. Brutal:/

Consolidated below R1=$307 and looked like it was about to break higher.
However,
-- after the 2nd failed attempt to break higher
-- after putting some nasty long upper wicks at R1
-- 15min candle closed as a "gravestone" doji
-- market started selling-off (market alignment)
-- original thesis/premarket plan was to short against R1

decided to try it one more time, for the "Technical Reversal on the 15min" reversal pattern.

Got short small size, risking above HOD=$308.5s, expecting the reveral back to VWAP (at a minimum).

Luckily, this thing sold-off quicker than expected, so I covered the bulk in-front of S1=LOD=$296.

Added to the short again once the bear-flag/flat-line consolidation above S1=LOD resolved, risking above VWAP.

Covered in-front of $292.

Tried small shorts for the break lower to S2=283, but LULU held support at $290-292 area.
Finally, pushed higher before the close.

(-) Should have been quicker trimming size after it held S1 as support and bounced back. Too slow.
(+) Good loss turned to a papercut.

image


Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2020-06-12 07:31:49 LULU sell $298.030 short
2020-06-12 07:38:27 LULU sell $299.600 short
2020-06-12 08:05:53 LULU buy $298.990 0
2020-06-12 08:13:04 LULU sell $298.000 short
2020-06-12 08:23:39 LULU buy $297.740 0
2020-06-12 09:35:12 LULU sell $300.970 short
2020-06-12 09:35:39 LULU sell $299.570 short
2020-06-12 09:36:31 LULU sell $297.580 short
2020-06-12 09:36:38 LULU sell $297.440 short
2020-06-12 09:36:40 LULU sell $297.440 short
2020-06-12 09:37:13 LULU sell $296.420 short
2020-06-12 09:37:16 LULU sell $296.680 short
2020-06-12 09:41:43 LULU buy $304.790 0
2020-06-12 09:53:36 LULU sell $304.920 short
2020-06-12 09:53:46 LULU sell $305.120 short
2020-06-12 10:19:31 LULU buy $299.120 short
2020-06-12 10:27:52 LULU buy $297.250 short
2020-06-12 10:58:18 LULU sell $296.040 short
2020-06-12 11:20:02 LULU buy $292.230 short
2020-06-12 11:40:55 LULU sell $292.750 short
2020-06-12 11:44:20 LULU sell $292.140 short
2020-06-12 12:09:15 LULU buy $295.380 short
2020-06-12 12:11:49 LULU sell $293.430 short
2020-06-12 13:54:43 LULU buy $291.150 short
2020-06-12 14:13:13 LULU buy $291.780 short
2020-06-12 14:30:33 LULU buy $293.930 0


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