Shared by
JensW
- Solid end result for the day
- Trading mostly decent
- Valuable experience about illiquid stocks
- Two crazy positions (FGEN and ALNY), which were simply too illiquid/dangerous
- Better selectivity
Number of Entries: --------------- 5
Capital used: -------------------- ca. 12k
Risk: ---------------------------- very high
Stochastics: --------------------- 96 on first
Bollinger Band: ------------------ yes, 3rd, 4th and 5th entry
Recent performance: -------------- up 25-30% in 30min
Number of up / down candles: ----- 6
Shape of last candle b/f entry:--- exhaustion present
Joker: ---------------------------- no
Joker worked: ---------------------- N/A
Outcome joker: --------------------- N/A
Profit/(Loss) Without Commission:--- 426.00
Comments:
- Size a bit too big, perhaps 1st and 2nd should have been 500 shares a piece
- Entries too early at 2.60s
- Entries at 2.8s / 2.9s o.k.
- Great range
- True parabolic price action
- Ca. 50 USD commission
Execution detail:
| Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-12-08 12:04:56 | SNSS | sell | $2.590 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:04:56 | SNSS | sell | $2.590 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:04:56 | SNSS | sell | $2.590 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:04:58 | SNSS | sell | $2.610 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:04:58 | SNSS | sell | $2.620 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:08:22 | SNSS | sell | $2.690 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:08:22 | SNSS | sell | $2.690 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:09:14 | SNSS | sell | $2.810 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:09:22 | SNSS | sell | $2.810 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:10:05 | SNSS | sell | $2.810 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:12:25 | SNSS | sell | $2.870 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:14:27 | SNSS | sell | $2.900 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:14:27 | SNSS | sell | $2.900 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:04 | SNSS | buy | $2.730 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:04 | SNSS | buy | $2.730 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:30 | SNSS | buy | $2.700 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:30 | SNSS | buy | $2.700 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:30 | SNSS | buy | $2.700 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:52 | SNSS | buy | $2.690 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:19:53 | SNSS | buy | $2.690 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:20:02 | SNSS | buy | $2.690 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:20:16 | SNSS | buy | $2.680 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:20:16 | SNSS | buy | $2.680 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:20:16 | SNSS | buy | $2.680 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:20:16 | SNSS | buy | $2.680 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:24:14 | SNSS | buy | $2.650 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:24:14 | SNSS | buy | $2.650 | short |
| 2014-12-08 12:24:14 | SNSS | buy | $2.650 | 0 |
Comments
tombro
Is it a little nerve wracking to be down over $900 at the apex of the Maximum Adverse Excursion? I asked you this on one of your other charts, but if you are using the 1 minute timeframe, you might try out a 2 or 3 minute. In this case on the 2 minute this stock made a succession of higher lows until the 12:14 bar when it broke the $2.87 low of the 12:12 bar.
That might help you be calmer when it comes to staying in a trade that's going in your favor vs taking profits too quickly, as you mentioned this weekend.
I used to use 1 minute charts (I thought I was going to miss something if I didn't) I now almost always use 5 minute, occasionally using 3 or 2 minute charts, and I feel like I can manage my trades 400% better. I still have a lot of work to do, but that one change made a HUGE difference.
Another thing you might want to consider...If you enter, and the price goes higher than the bar you entered on, maybe use the high of that entry bar as your stop. When you're flat in something moving like this, you'll be able to think more clearly than when the hole keeps geting deeper
Good Luck Jens. When you get this setup nailed, you're gonna rake it in.
JensW
thanks for your comments.
i use 5min time frames only. i might experiment with 2 or 3 min time frames.
thanks for tip, tom.
i do not know the story of SNSS.
i am a greenhorn, a bloody amateur and do not trade exactly like kunal taught us.
the price action on this trade was a gift, IMO. it simply was not sustainable.
i fully understand that most people consider this a bad or a risky trade.
in my view 20+% in 15min is unsustainable and my strategy as well as my trading showed that I was able (in paper money) to exploit this inefficiency.
again, i really understand that this trade might be consider idiotic, which is fine.
I think the trade was brilliant! I just think it might be nice to trade it as well as possible. You do a great job of finding these, and when you master it, it will put a very sly smile on your face!
Oh, I had posted on someone else's trade, just wondering, if trading into the close would benefit from smaller time frame like a 3 minute, like how maribeth and szaman use at the open. During these parabolic moves, obviously the price is moving very quickly, and maybe just like the thing I mentioned this weekend-(like if the stock is going up, making higher lows, sit tite), maybe the inverse is true, like in this, if it is making higher lows, wait to enter until it violates the low of the prior bar.
Does that make sense? I'm in California, and it's getting late, and I'm getting tired.
If it doesn't let me know, I'll try to rephrase it
skipjackrick
All I'm saying is anticipating the selloff gets you into trouble. I've been squeezed plenty of times. 20%+ increases can be sustainable if there is enough liquidity behind the move. In this particular case THERE WAS PLENTY. It was trading 100K per candle at the time. Wait until volume and price confirm. It was clear cut on your final short entry at $2.90
you are right ... i also regularly get into trouble anticipating the sell-off.
what makes the short clear at 2.90? can you elaborate?
parabolics / true parabolics are such a powerful set-up, but I am told it is not a beginner's set-up and unfortunately, I am a beginner, trying to learn this one. perhaps I have to stop with this one, as there is no set stop and the take profit is also hard.
Hey Jens, one thing Kunal said that I really like, is "build a case for your trade". I like to think of it as you are "collecting the clues" to guide you on if you should enter a trade, and when.
In your case, it's a matter of when.
The thing that "Makes" this trade is that there are buyers, seemingly irrationally driving the stock to heights that can't be sustained.
So I think you have to look for clues that suggest the buying is either slowing, stopping, and/or turning into selling.
Look for this on a bar by bar basis (and maybe experiment with a 3 minute like i mentioned above to get a finer granularity to the market action)
In your case:
The 12 pm bar had a range of $.24, and closed .03 off the high-it seems to me the buyers are in control. Its open was the same as the 11:55 close and didn't go below the open
The 12:05 bar had a range of $.23, and closed .02 off the high-Although the overall size of the bar is .01 less than the previous- the buying may be less powerful than the previous 5 minutes, but still very enthusiastic, because it closed just .02 off its high. It dipped .03 at the open, but absorbed that selling to move higher. Maybe .03 is kinda the wiggle room for this stock.
The 12:10 bar is where it gets interesting. It opens, but dips .06 (vs .03 on the previous bar), BUT price is still within the upper 1/3 of the previous bar.
This may be the 1st clue that the tide is changing, but it isn't collapsing yet. Price was able to stay in the upper portion of the previous bar.
Price then goes up to make a new high at 2.97, but then closes .12 off the high.
It is during this 12:10 bar that there is any evidence of the buyers losing control, and any entry before 12:10 is just a guess.
This is the first time I think you should be thinking about entering.
If you jumped in on the weaknes of the opening of this bar you could use the high of the previous bar as your stop- and yes, you would've gotten stopped out .09 loss at most, but that's better then letting it run .38 against you.
If you entered near the close of the 12:10 bar, you could use the high of that bar as your stop for a .13 max loss-again better than .38
One of the bi-products of this better entry, is that you will be able to hold on to for better exits, and in this case would have had such profits that you may have even been able to hold onto a small piece to the end of day for a really nice gain, and that warm fuzzy feeling you get for getting the entire move- even if its with only a small portion of your original size.
AND, it will be another brick in the building of your confidence for you to manage your trades as they should be managed.
In the case of this trade I know cause I was watching every tick.
First off, you can't top tick. Not possible, don't be a hero and try to say you "nailed" the top. This trade has plenty of range to make some cash.
The $2.90 entry was key because of two things. Price had just pegged a whole number (ie $3) and reversed. Signal that buyers were willing to start taking some off at $3. Next, a red 5min candle had closed off that top, signaling that this move had reached a complete cycle.
Thank you both for your time and valuable feedback.
The way Tom dissected (spelling?) the price action is new to me. Looking at ranges of bars and closing levels in relation to top (and or bottoms) is something I have not come across in that way. Sure I try to read charts and candles, but not to that level of detail. I wonder, if this is necessary and / or practical during a trade? I don't think I am to go much beyond looking at the shape of the candles at this point.
For me the key take-away is that 3 was rejected as a whole number and the close of the last up candle is significant below the high of the candle. It is called inverted hammer or something like it, I think. Often I see those when tops are reached or near. I called it exhaustion. Sometimes exhaustion can come in really large / long candles at the end of a rally.
Thanks again.It is cool to be able to exchange these views with people who have a similar interest / passion. (while we know that 99% of people like us lose in the long term - sobering) :) (yes, I am pretty german in my way of thinking)
Jens-this is expounding on skip's comment, If you have your time and sales and level 2 up, in time (and I'm no pro at this but it's starting to happen for me) you can get a sense of the flow of the buying and selling, and a sense when the flow is changing. This takes time but could be valuable with these kinds of trade cuz they are such emotional trades (emotional in that buyers feel like they gotta get in-hence the parabolic-then they are in a panic to sell when the price turns). Sang Lucci is really great at reading and explaining time and sales.
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Holy cow. Next time let that selling confirm the trend is reversing. $3 was an awesome spot to start testing a short. Averaging up like that could be bad news. Especially if the stock halted on you. Not sure if you know the story behind SNSS. But bad trade here IMO that you escaped death on.