SPY Trade on Jun 24, 2020 09:34 from spyrosz: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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spyrosz

 

Great trade. Could have played a bit better though. Let's review:

Yesterday gap-up found resistance at $314s, rolled-over in afternoon session, closing at LOD.
Gap-down premarket below some major support levels:
-- 200EMA@60min chart=$310
-- 20SMA@daily=$310.65.
-- major daily inflection level at daily=$311.
---> R1=$310, R2=$311

Support at:
S1=premarket low=$308
S2=major daily support level=$306
S3=extra-major daily support level=200SMA@daily=$302

Premarket plan as follows:
a) BEARISH as long as it holds/trades below R2=$311
b) (P) Weakness+Consol.-->Breakdown
c1) (S) Bearish Bias - Holding Resistance at R1/R2 + DTSB of S2=$306
c2) (S) Support lvl breakdown of S2=$306
I was expecting a pop to R1/R2 at the open, quick+obvious rejection there and a quick move lower towards S2=$306. Bounce at S2=$306, some kind of Desc. Triangle on top of S2 and a possible break lower...
---> Major momo trade if it breaks below S2=$306, easy short to S3=$302!!

Tested and rejected 200EMA@60min to the penny at the open, and rolled over below VWAP.

Got short filler size, risking above the 200EMA@60min=HOD, wanting to add size below $309.

Big reversal, made new HOD, stopped out quickly. Papercut loss.
Tried to push towards the 20SMA@daily twice but looked heavy on tape and retraced back to VWAP.

Got short filler when it put the lower high below the 20SMA+feeling heavy on tape above VWAP, added size through the break of VWAP, expecting the break of LOD and a move to S1=$308.

Covers at $309, $308 and $307.
Didn't expect such quick move lower, didn't have the size I would like.
Important: The 1st leg from $310 to $307 is NOT an easy/obvious/evident/high-conviction short. Happy I was able to participate.

However, after the break below S1=$308, things got interested!!A+ setup forming.
-- Break below S1=$308 on HUGE volume
-- Extended on 5/15min timeframes, difficult to continue much lower. Needs time to consolidate below S1 before next leg lower.
-- Retracement back to S1+VWAP
-- Algo stop-run above S1=$308 but still below VWAP
-- 9EMA@5/15min charts catch up with price action
-- Rolls over back below S1=$308
---> A+ short for move to S2=$306

Got short one Tier when it lost S1, risking above VWAP, added another Tier after weak bounce from LOD=$307, expecting momo sell-off to S2=$306.

(-) 1st A+ Setup: Easy/obvious short trade=MAX. SIZE HAMMERING THE BID, risking above VWAP, targeting $306! I didn't take the size I wanted here...Major mistake.

Covered 75% of position in-front of S2, held rest with stop above VWAP.
I was expecting some kind of bounce back to S1=$308 in order to add back shares to the short...

However SPY continued to show extreme weakness. Unable to bounce from $306, put a flat-line consolidation in-front of the level for about 20mins.

Hard break below S2=$306 on increasing volume and momo took it from there..
(-) 2nd A+ Setup: Easy/obvious momo short trade at the break of $306=MAX. SIZE HAMMERING THE BID, risking above top of consol., targeting $302!-->DIDN'T ADD AT ALL!!Ultimate mistake.

So weak, never even got to retest S3 and provide an opportunity to get involved in a safe manner, before the momo sell-off lower. Nice bear flag at $304.5s but at that point I felt I was chasing lower so I left it alone.

Covered last 25% of position at $302.5s..

Hard bounce at S3=$302 back to S2=VWAP=$306. What a gift!!

Got short one Tier, risking above $307s, expecting a retest of lows=$302.

Covered on the way down.
Tried a small scalp for the flush to $302, didn't work all-out at b/e.

To summarize main issue:
(-) A+ setup = aggressive size + full mental capital allocation! Anything less is BAD risk management. These trades make your month!!Capitalize. Be aggressive.

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Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2020-06-24 09:34:19 SPY sell $309.550 short
2020-06-24 09:36:34 SPY buy $310.270 short
2020-06-24 09:44:04 SPY sell $310.100 short
2020-06-24 09:46:02 SPY sell $309.840 short
2020-06-24 09:49:22 SPY buy $309.270 short
2020-06-24 09:57:16 SPY buy $308.110 short
2020-06-24 10:03:43 SPY buy $307.210 short
2020-06-24 10:32:41 SPY sell $307.740 short
2020-06-24 10:37:03 SPY sell $307.290 short
2020-06-24 10:38:34 SPY buy $306.550 short
2020-06-24 10:53:14 SPY buy $306.210 short
2020-06-24 11:45:26 SPY buy $303.010 0
2020-06-24 13:04:37 SPY sell $305.320 short
2020-06-24 13:09:06 SPY sell $304.936 short
2020-06-24 13:20:07 SPY sell $304.892 short
2020-06-24 13:27:24 SPY buy $304.060 short
2020-06-24 13:33:04 SPY buy $303.760 short
2020-06-24 13:37:32 SPY buy $303.520 short
2020-06-24 13:46:05 SPY sell $303.296 short
2020-06-24 14:06:48 SPY buy $303.535 0


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