Great trade. Could have played a bit better though. Let's review:
Yesterday gap-up found resistance at $314s, rolled-over in afternoon session, closing at LOD.
Gap-down premarket below some major support levels:
-- 200EMA@60min chart=$310
-- 20SMA@daily=$310.65.
-- major daily inflection level at daily=$311.
---> R1=$310, R2=$311
Support at:
S1=premarket low=$308
S2=major daily support level=$306
S3=extra-major daily support level=200SMA@daily=$302
Premarket plan as follows:
a) BEARISH as long as it holds/trades below R2=$311
b) (P) Weakness+Consol.-->Breakdown
c1) (S) Bearish Bias - Holding Resistance at R1/R2 + DTSB of S2=$306
c2) (S) Support lvl breakdown of S2=$306
I was expecting a pop to R1/R2 at the open, quick+obvious rejection there and a quick move lower towards S2=$306. Bounce at S2=$306, some kind of Desc. Triangle on top of S2 and a possible break lower...
---> Major momo trade if it breaks below S2=$306, easy short to S3=$302!!
Tested and rejected 200EMA@60min to the penny at the open, and rolled over below VWAP.
Got short filler size, risking above the 200EMA@60min=HOD, wanting to add size below $309.
Big reversal, made new HOD, stopped out quickly. Papercut loss.
Tried to push towards the 20SMA@daily twice but looked heavy on tape and retraced back to VWAP.
Got short filler when it put the lower high below the 20SMA+feeling heavy on tape above VWAP, added size through the break of VWAP, expecting the break of LOD and a move to S1=$308.
Covers at $309, $308 and $307.
Didn't expect such quick move lower, didn't have the size I would like.
Important: The 1st leg from $310 to $307 is NOT an easy/obvious/evident/high-conviction short. Happy I was able to participate.
However, after the break below S1=$308, things got interested!!A+ setup forming.
-- Break below S1=$308 on HUGE volume
-- Extended on 5/15min timeframes, difficult to continue much lower. Needs time to consolidate below S1 before next leg lower.
-- Retracement back to S1+VWAP
-- Algo stop-run above S1=$308 but still below VWAP
-- 9EMA@5/15min charts catch up with price action
-- Rolls over back below S1=$308
---> A+ short for move to S2=$306
Got short one Tier when it lost S1, risking above VWAP, added another Tier after weak bounce from LOD=$307, expecting momo sell-off to S2=$306.
(-) 1st A+ Setup: Easy/obvious short trade=MAX. SIZE HAMMERING THE BID, risking above VWAP, targeting $306! I didn't take the size I wanted here...Major mistake.
Covered 75% of position in-front of S2, held rest with stop above VWAP.
I was expecting some kind of bounce back to S1=$308 in order to add back shares to the short...
However SPY continued to show extreme weakness. Unable to bounce from $306, put a flat-line consolidation in-front of the level for about 20mins.
Hard break below S2=$306 on increasing volume and momo took it from there..
(-) 2nd A+ Setup: Easy/obvious momo short trade at the break of $306=MAX. SIZE HAMMERING THE BID, risking above top of consol., targeting $302!-->DIDN'T ADD AT ALL!!Ultimate mistake.
So weak, never even got to retest S3 and provide an opportunity to get involved in a safe manner, before the momo sell-off lower. Nice bear flag at $304.5s but at that point I felt I was chasing lower so I left it alone.
Covered last 25% of position at $302.5s..
Hard bounce at S3=$302 back to S2=VWAP=$306. What a gift!!
Got short one Tier, risking above $307s, expecting a retest of lows=$302.
Covered on the way down.
Tried a small scalp for the flush to $302, didn't work all-out at b/e.
To summarize main issue:
(-) A+ setup = aggressive size + full mental capital allocation! Anything less is BAD risk management. These trades make your month!!Capitalize. Be aggressive.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-06-24 09:34:19 | SPY | sell | $309.550 | short |
2020-06-24 09:36:34 | SPY | buy | $310.270 | short |
2020-06-24 09:44:04 | SPY | sell | $310.100 | short |
2020-06-24 09:46:02 | SPY | sell | $309.840 | short |
2020-06-24 09:49:22 | SPY | buy | $309.270 | short |
2020-06-24 09:57:16 | SPY | buy | $308.110 | short |
2020-06-24 10:03:43 | SPY | buy | $307.210 | short |
2020-06-24 10:32:41 | SPY | sell | $307.740 | short |
2020-06-24 10:37:03 | SPY | sell | $307.290 | short |
2020-06-24 10:38:34 | SPY | buy | $306.550 | short |
2020-06-24 10:53:14 | SPY | buy | $306.210 | short |
2020-06-24 11:45:26 | SPY | buy | $303.010 | 0 |
2020-06-24 13:04:37 | SPY | sell | $305.320 | short |
2020-06-24 13:09:06 | SPY | sell | $304.936 | short |
2020-06-24 13:20:07 | SPY | sell | $304.892 | short |
2020-06-24 13:27:24 | SPY | buy | $304.060 | short |
2020-06-24 13:33:04 | SPY | buy | $303.760 | short |
2020-06-24 13:37:32 | SPY | buy | $303.520 | short |
2020-06-24 13:46:05 | SPY | sell | $303.296 | short |
2020-06-24 14:06:48 | SPY | buy | $303.535 | 0 |
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