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Jun 24, 2020 14:49


Break Resistance Play Strong 2

Total gain/loss: $112.54 Largest gain: $138.16 (show)
Average daily gain/loss: $112.54 Largest loss: $-35.24 (show)
Average daily volume: 4080 Average per-share gain/loss: $0.06
Average winning trade: $32.79 Average trade gain/loss: $9.38
Average losing trade: $-14.03 Trade P&L standard deviation: $44.54
Total number of trades: 12 Profit factor: 2.34
Number of winning trades: 6 (50.0%) Average hold time (winning trades): 1 minute
Number of losing trades: 6 (50.0%) Average hold time (losing trades): 2 minutes
Max consecutive wins: 2 (show) Max consecutive losses: 2 (show)
Average position MFE: $16.71 Average position MAE: $-12.76
Intraday Fundamentals
• Record high yesterday, close middle of the range
• Peloton Interactive stock hit a record close on Tuesday. Cowen analyst John Blackledge now sees 27% upside from here.
• In a note to clients, Blackledge raised his price target on the stock (ticker: PTON) to a whopping $70 -- up from $54 . That's the highest analyst price target, listed by FactSet, by $8 . The lowest target listed by FactSet is $ 26 , though Citron Research Andrew Left , a notorious short seller, has said the stock is worth $5 .
• Peloton stock has soared 93% in 2020, and 210% from its lowest point in mid-March. Before the pandemic, some skeptics like Left questioned Peloton's potential total addressable market that the more bullish analysts have touted. While that debate lives on, the stock has moved in favor of the bulls. It's hard to argue against the bona fide boost that Peloton's seen amid efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19.
• The company's sales of interactive exercise bikes have been far better than expected. And every bike sale leads to recurring revenue via the connected fitness subscription required to use its main features. The company hit one million such subscribers last month.
• According to Blackledge, Peloton stock can continue to rise as those subscriptions and engagement ramp up, both of which have been helped by the pandemic. He wrote that the company is "uniquely well positioned" due to its vertically integrated model.
• "Putting these attributes together, we believe Peloton's powerful brand is synonymous with the burgeoning connected fitness category, driving high retention/low churn, network effects, & leverage over time," he wrote. " Meanwhile, the pandemic has created a virtuous cycle driving both increased hardware demand as well as a surge in engagement and lower monthly churn levels."
• He argues Peloton's competitive advantages continue to build around its offerings, something that's underappreciated by investors. He thinks it would be hard for a newer entrants with fewer resources to gain share.
• *MW Peloton stock price target raised to $70 from $55 at KeyBanc Capital
• "Ultimately, we think PTON benefits from a unique amalgamation of technology, premium hardware, and software together, and a comparison to prior fitness focused companies is a largely flawed analogy," he wrote.
• Peloton stock closed up 3.5% to $54.88 on Tuesday, while the S&P 500 index rose 0.4%. Still, expectations are high for the company's next quarterly earnings report, due in late August. That presents some risk for the stock, if results don't soar over an already elevated bar.
ADV 10.24m RVOL1.24 ATR 3.11 Short 6% Inst Own 59.7%



Trading Strategy
• Look for a pullback in to 56 ish at the open and see if it gets strong enough to take a small lot long and add to it if it starts to work. Target the PM high of 57.30.
• Look for a long if this breaks the PM high and pulls back into 56.75 if that short it to 56 if it does not
• Long 55 on a spike at the open
• Short a late morning new HoD
• VWAP tests on the side of momentum
• SMA momentum plays after testing or breaking a intraday level
Reading the Tape
Trade Management
Trade Notes
I had the momentum above yesterday's HoD. U showed some patience as it struggle to break 56.75 and took it off. I had a long bias this morning had felt I missed the pullback on the dip below 56. This is the sort of early momentum where I felt like I should wait for a pull back to the shortest term SMA. After showing a little patience with the stall, I just gave it in and decided to wait for some test of the SMA or VWAP.
I took this at the test of my SMA on the one minute. It moved spike above .82 and stalled. I was to big and got lucky.
This trade would get me emotional for the rest of the day. However, I did manage the emotions long enough to get this to work for me. When I added at 54.50 I forced myself to walk away and get my heart rate down. I felt I had to commit to this running agains me another 50 cents. But, I was not going to be able to make a good decision until I was calmer. I bought myself the couple of minutes I needed to get this working. I even was able to maintain the presence of mind to hold this instead of coming back to it and taking whatever it had given me. Plus, I hit the stall on the tape after the quick dip below 53.50

This is the definition of a momentum scalp using the SMA. I really needed to keep some of this because as this really could have extended. The original 60@ 53.85 ish stop. It would have gotten taken out quickly afterwards and it was hard not to take the point.
This was a good trade.... It sucks that this lost. But, I needed to be bigger here. 53.60 ish the LoD prior day and it had given it up once in the opening. The shorter trend up to this point had been lower since the early sell and it was struggling to overcome it. This did flush for a chance for a quick win. It was not what I was looking for. But trade with a little bit of size I could have taken a partial and covered some risk.

This is so discouraging when it comes to the thought process. WHen I was debating on taking this long jsut prior to this around 54.50. I kept hesitating thinking that I would have to have a stop some around 54.15. So, looking for a short there was not the bad thought. But, to market in on slowing tape, then risking 7 cents and giving 14, was dumb.
I would follow up the last trade with an attempt this time to take the break over .50. I set a stop at 15 cents thinking that had enough room. However, I did not give enough room and this trade barely wicked me out before running to 55 and even higher as the rest of the day played out.
I would finally get this set up to start working and bailed on this way to early. This is where being at size can really hurt what I am trying to do. If I had 15 cents on the last trade I needed at least 20 cent target on this trade. These are the sort of trades that mean I need to do some work on my stops and patience still.
I needed more confidence here after it retested the .50 here. Again, I think if I take the 15 cents like I did on the loss at this level, I would have been set up to have my best day ever going into the close. But, I lost patience and discipline as the day went on trying to gain it back.

Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2020-06-24 14:49:31 PTON buy $54.902 long
2020-06-24 14:50:55 PTON sell $54.750 0

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