LMND Trade on Jul 6, 2020 09:39 from michaeljmath: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

• This was my main focus at the open. LMND IPO'd prior trading day, issuing 11 mn shares at $29. Due to work, I was not able to trade it on IPO day, but I did review the price action afterwards.

• LMND is a fintech digital insurer who uses AI to interact with customers and write insurance policies. From reading some of the news stories, it seemed like it was a hot IPO. It priced above its range of 26 to 28, and then opened at 50 on day 1, and quickly drove higher blowing the 58 (the IPO double price) and holding above that price and VWAP midday before closing at high of day and basing the last hour or so, which set a little bit of a platform that we could potentially launch off of on day 2.

Technicals from Day 1

• There was some buying above the morning high above 66 into the close with high of day around 70-71. Those were my two most important reference points coming into today.
• Range on day 1 was about 20 points, so this gave me an idea of how much I could potentially expect on day 2. This brought in targets of 80, 90, and 100.

• Also noteable is that low float, hot new issues, have had continuation on day 2 recently.

  Today's action and trading

• The stock was opening around 73.50 and immediately drove above 75 (this was possibly an opening drive play as stock didn't even tick down. This is a play that I am observing, and have not yet added to my playbook, partly because the TOS platform is usually buggy at the open, so I can't really rely on it to get in and out fast at the open).

• Stock quickly traded up to 80 before posing for a minute and then 83.50 (so about a 10 point opening drive).

• While I would have liked to have picked up some closer to YH, this clearly was an indication of continuing strength in the name (volume was good compared to day 1 as well), and the stock did not get "too vertical", so I started looking at pullback opportunities.

• The stock came back down below 80 somewhat quickly to VWAP. This didn't look deep enough so I waited. This is still at 9:35 and VWAP is less likely to hold this early in the day)

• I started getting interested after the 3rd 1-min bar on the downside, and focused on the tape looking for ways to get in. These include:

  • mini flushes on the tape
  • held bids
  • "the turn" in the prints
  • a trade near 75 fig

• I saw the turn up in the prints and bought one lot vs. 75 at 76.84 (low of pullback was 76). (Tier 1 at this point).

• You could make a case that I should have gotten into Tier 2 right away here:

  • in-play stock
  • strong opening drive
  • pullback on relatively lighter volume
  • I had gameplanned for the stock, so I knew the levels and had a good idea how much room to give it, and how far it could potentially go.
  • The only negative was that I didn't get prices close to my gameplanned levels, which was more of a function of the extreme strength in the stock at the open.

• There was some selling at 78, so when that lifted I bought another lot at 78.02 vs the low

• Once again, could I have been in Tier 3 or 4 here vs the low, looking for high of day on extra tier?

Possibly - the one negative is that it was still pretty early (9:40), so stocks aren't as trendy, things are moving very quickly, and you can get slipped a little more on exits.

• As the stock started to work, I got out of a half a lot under 80. We did have a red 1-min candle there after pushing above 80, but to be honest, I didn't really see anything noteable here. I had planned on selling a tier into the prior high, but this was still a ways below the high. We simply tested that 78 area (where there was a seller) and quickly moved back higher.

• I sold the other half of that tier as we stalled a bit at the prior high. At this point, I was also on the lookout for a possible add above the morning high as it was tested twice and once we got out, it did appear like we were consolidating just under highs. At this point, this was where the bigger momentum move was likely to happen, as it would also complete a bull flag on the 5-min chart.

• I did not add at the high as I am still very hesitant adding on hew highs. I need to get better at identifying when it is likely to be a clean trade through highs (I have had trouble with paying up and hitting out into the dip before the stock rallies).

• One variable here is that volume did come into the stock. I could have paid the new high with the condition that volume had to come in. If volume didn't come in, get out right away. If volume comes in, maybe get in more if stock hasn't move away too much.

• In this case volume did come in and confirm the move.

• I offered half of my remaining tier at 89.27 in front of the 90 hole number (this area was also almost 20 points off low of day, which was the range on day 1).

• The next lot, I was looking for an obvious blow off, or a reversal at 100 to exit.

• Stock traded up to 96.50 and reversed before holding 90 for about 5 minutes and then breaking on a pickup in volume. I got out on the offer of the remaining shares but only got filled on half the order. The last bit, I was ok holding vs. VWAP as a feeler. I also considered adding at VWAP as this time of day is was till good for buying pullbacks. (I didn't like the volume that came in below 90 though so I was hesitant and didn't get any on the pullback to 85).

• I continued watching, and buyers did appear to be stepping higher at 88, but I wanted to see what happened at 90 b/c that is where we failed hard.

• We traded above 90 a couple times up to 91.50. Volume then came in above 91.50 so I bought half a tier at 92 vs 88. This was questionable as the risk reward was not great risking 4 points for a possible move to 100.

• I continued watching as it pulled in toward 90. Buyers seemed to be fighting the sellers the whole way as the pullback was fairly contained.

• Then, I saw a 230k bid at 89.58. I bought in front of that, just above 90.

• This guy was tested a little bit and decremented to about 160k before they made a run above intraday resistance at 94. Stock failed to hold 94, and traded down quickly to 91.50. I was able to exit around 92.80 for half my remaining shares. The rest, I decided to hold until that buyer dropped or if we traded up to 100 target. I got stopped out on final lot.

• Once that buyer drop, the composure of the stock changed, and it seemed like stock needed rest.