MRNA Trade on Jul 27, 2020 09:42 from CapitalMastery: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

Summary

Shorted MRNA in anticipation of 1min 20ma cup to the downside rolling over. Sure enough, it basically rolled right over as soon as I entered the trade.

Did Right

Correctly anticipating MRNA's catalyst as a sell-the-news situation, which shows that I might be starting to understand what's what.

Did Wrong

Problem with these anticipation trades is that you don't really have conviction to size in, or hold for long. They basically turn into a scalp.

Improvements

If I'm going to anticipate an entry, still see the trade through as if it were a full ADH style trade.

Next Trade

MRNA held up pretty well today, but I'd expect a sell off if it gaps up as it was super weak all day; even the pops were weak.

Execution detail:

Date/time	Symbol	Side	Price	Position
2020-07-27 09:42:23	MRNA	sell	$78.300	short
2020-07-27 09:42:25	MRNA	sell	$78.300	short
2020-07-27 09:46:42	MRNA	buy	$77.260	short
2020-07-27 09:47:15	MRNA	buy	$76.840	0

#chart1 { background-image:url('/shared/charts/pricechart?symbol=MRNA&trade=17959891&end=20200826&i=d&TimeRange=120&Volume=1&ChartType=candlestick&width=450&height=275');}

#chart2 { background-image:url('/shared/charts/pricechart?symbol=MRNA&trade=17959891&end=20200727160000&i=m60&TimeRange=90&Volume=1&ChartType=candlestick&width=450&height=275');}

#chart3 { background-image:url('/shared/charts/pricechart?symbol=MRNA&trade=17959891&end=20200727101515&i=m1&TimeRange=90&Volume=1&ChartType=candlestick&width=450&height=275');}

#chart4 { background-image:url('/shared/charts/pricechart?symbol=MRNA&trade=17959891&end=20200727121715&i=m5&TimeRange=90&Volume=1&ChartType=candlestick&width=450&height=275');}

Comments

dpaleo

2020-07-28 07:59:09

the DID WRONG section should be blank. This was a great trade. BGU on news but gets slammed by sellers off open ("Sell the news"). Short first bounce into vwap is a very viable strategy. You even waited a bit for it to confirm it would act as resistance so not really anticipating as you state. I often times offer into vwap on these setups which IS anticipating resistance. And then can add if i get a confirmation candle of a roll. This is a great trade.

CapitalMastery

2020-07-29 00:47:45

Lol, now if I had only realized how good of a trade this was ahead of time! Honestly man, I wish I had considered all those details for this trade, but now that you've explained it, it makes total sense. I can def see how this is, in itself, a specific trade I could add to my playbook. Also, VWAP gives me something tangible to risk off of. I love it; thanks brother!

dpaleo

2020-07-29 13:26:28

exactly. I love the "short a bounce into vwap after a significant break" break strategy bc, like you said, risk is rather defined. If it breaks back above vwap then the trade thesis is nullified.