Disastrous earnings + 1st back to back Q/Q loss in 36yrs.
Oil sector in a bear market --> mindset = short the rallies to resistance, short the support breaks.
XOM gaping lower premarket after earnings report, trading around the all-important $41 support lvl. Below that, next support sitting at $40-40.2 (target).
Plan was as follows:
a) I was hoping for a pop towards R1=yesterday's close=$41.9-42 area to get short, expecting a Desc. Triangle Support Break pattern of S1=$41.
b) Small pop at the open to S1=$41, unable to reclaim the level, momo sell-off to S2=$40.2.
XOM opened in-front of S1=$41 and rallied to R1=yesterday's close per premarket plan.
Started scaling in to the short slowly, risking $42.3s, added on the backside once it rejected R1 and rolled over back to VWAP.
However, it wasn't behaving exactly as expected. It was trying to hold VWAP, w/o selling off to S1 (per the pattern I was playing). So I sat tight and watched it.
Tried to bounce from VWAP but got rejected on volume putting a lower high.
I interpreted it as confirmation that it was internally weak, so added a bit more, moving stop above the lower high.
Covered half in-front of S1. It bounced back to VWAP, putting a new lower high.
So I moved stop accordingly. Managed to break the desc. resist. trendline and squeeze higher getting me stopped out.
I am very proud of this trade both in terms of playing the idea and risk management.
Some good trading here.
Execution detail:
Date/time | Symbol | Side | Price | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|
2020-07-31 09:33:40 | XOM | sell | $41.710 | short |
2020-07-31 09:38:43 | XOM | sell | $41.960 | short |
2020-07-31 09:38:43 | XOM | sell | $41.960 | short |
2020-07-31 09:47:02 | XOM | sell | $41.590 | short |
2020-07-31 09:49:14 | XOM | sell | $41.540 | short |
2020-07-31 10:31:47 | XOM | sell | $41.440 | short |
2020-07-31 10:53:09 | XOM | buy | $41.110 | short |
2020-07-31 10:54:32 | XOM | buy | $41.040 | short |
2020-07-31 10:54:32 | XOM | buy | $41.040 | short |
2020-07-31 12:26:29 | XOM | buy | $41.610 | 0 |
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