UBER Trade on Aug 7, 2020 09:36 from Cklamb: Tradervue User Stock Trades.

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UBER
Intraday Fundamentals
• Uber's ride-hailing business isn't exactly riding high amid economic re- openings. Investors who have bid up the stock this month in anticipation of a recovery are now questioning just how easily the company can navigate future dips.
• Uber's mixed results on Thursday were a sign the ride-hailing industry may be less resilient than investors hoped. Second-quarter gross bookings came in below estimates, falling 35% year-over-year to $10.2 billion . Importantly, gross bookings for its rides business -- now renamed "Mobility" -- declined 73%.
• Uber said in May that it had been seeing early signs of recovery, albeit one that was uneven across geographies. That has continued, with bookings in countries like France improving significantly, while bookings in various regions of the U.S. remain down 50% to 85% from a year earlier. On the positive side, Uber's food delivery business continues to grow, with bookings more than doubling from a year earlier.
• Uber aims to achieve overall profitability by the end of next year and has put aggressive cost-cutting measures in place. To its credit, Uber's rides business remained slightly profitable on an adjusted basis, even as ridership fell. And its July move to acquire food delivery rival Postmates promises to bolster cost savings through synergies and more rational pricing longer-term.
• But sustainable profitability will require both ride-hailing and food delivery to be firing on all cylinders -- something that looks less likely as the coronavirus pandemic stretches on. Excluding one-time costs, Uber's second- quarter adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization widened 26% in the June quarter versus the year-ago period. In a conference call with investors, the company said it expected Eats adjusted operating losses in the third quarter to be roughly in-line with the second quarter, but improve in the final quarter of the year.
• From a valuation perspective, Uber is back to pre-pandemic highs at around 3.7 times enterprise value to forward sales. Meanwhile, it continues to straddle both sides of the shelter-in-place trade: the Eats business is a natural hedge to declines in rides, but upside appears limited in any scenario.
• In such a tumultuous market, Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi stressed that "hope is not a strategy." Investors should take this to heart. It isn't yet clear that Uber has chosen the right road map.
Technicals
ADV 25.98 RVOL 1.44 ATR 1.25 Short 3.35% Inst Own 64.40%
Daily Chart
Hourly Chart

Intra Chart
Trading Strategy
• 32.50 is a stronger level from March of this year and it has been holding this level for the last couple of days. If the PD low does not hold, this would a be a place where I can look for SMA reinforcement if this level holds
• There is also a possible counter trend scalp long here at 32.50 on a quick spike at the open
• If 32.50 fails work to set up a SMA resistance scalp using market structure to stop and some with possible targets of 32 and 31.30
• PD support should be around 33.20 if this spikes and recovers, look to take a long on a restest of the level using some shorter term marker structure as a stop
• Short a gap close and follow the action at 33.40 for a short using a swing on the hourly

936 EST
I had 32.60 ish marked out as long Term level of support on this. I was watching as it spike to this and recovered quickly. I felt that this flush would give me a short scalp off either 33.20 the Prior Day Low or VWAP before being able to sustain something higher. I set the limit at VWAP feeling like I could set a stop just above the 33.20. I got the spike back into VWAP almost right after setting up the trade and took the quicker one to one. I think that I had planned for almost exactly. I am going to say the longer term and saner paly would have been to take the market stop that it gave me above the HoD and holding for a one for one that way. This would have given you market structure soon after the initial entry 30 cents better. So, as I work out the stats a little more I am going to call something like this a suicide trade as I am able to define why I think that.

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Execution detail:

Date/time Symbol Side Price Position
2020-08-07 09:36:46 UBER sell $33.131 short
2020-08-07 09:37:13 UBER buy $32.975 0


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